- Jan 6, 2005
- East Setauket,NY/Killington,VT
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They have changed there tune a bit...Not liking this at all same forecast all through Jan.
I agree with Scotty.I just going to go skiing when it snows and hopefully this forecast is wrong.
CONCLUSION The historic East Coast hurricane sandy in late October and the noreaster on NOV 6-7 that followed are indicative of a significant change the pattern from the warm dry previous winter and the extreme Heat and drought the country experienced throughout the Spring and Summer 2012. Not only has the Arctic oscillation and North American oscillation shifted into persistent negative phase … but research shows that October seems to play a key role in determining the phases of the AO and NAO. In addition significant changes in the sea surface temperature anomalies have occurred. In the eastern Pacific along the West Coast of North America the huge pool of cold water has dissipated and the new SSTAs configuration now supports +PNA development over Western North America. While we may not see this on a consistent basis I believe there will be some intervals during the heart of the winter into the spring where we will see several bouts of very amplified West Coast Ridging ( +PNA) in the jet stream. This could lead to strong arctic air outbreaks.
The early season development of much above normal snowfall in Eurasia during October is a strong indication that this winter will be much more like the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11.
When all of these factors are taken into consideration there is no rational reason NOT to be bullish on the upcomcing Winter of 2012-13 over the eastern half of the continent and the U.S. in particular. The only restricting factor that I can see right now… is the very strong and negative QBO cycle which is only now beginning to weaken. The data from CPC that tracks the QBO on a daily basis does show significant weakening over the past two weeks. It is quite possible then that strongly negative QBO will rise to a value -10 or higher during the second half of the winter which would be extremely favorable for above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures over the eastern half of the country.
There are several external sources of ionospheric forcing, these are solar wind-magnetospheric processes and lower atmospheric winds and waves. we review the observed ion-neutral coupling effects at equatorial and low latitudes during large meteorological events called sudden stratospheric warming. Research in this direction has been accelerated in recent years mainly due to solar minimum conditions. Given all these factors and leaning hard on the solar activity, a weak El Nino, Atlantic SST anomaly's, the PDO outlook the AO outlook, we expect the winter of 2012 - 2013 to be colder than normal with above normal snow in the north eastern sections of the United States.
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Catskills need another epic 10 foot dump this season like a few years ago.
That was wild. My girlfriend's first time skiing was after that dump. Belleayre must have had 4-6 feet on the mountain, and for some reason it wasn't that busy. Great day that was.