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Long Range Forecast

riverc0il

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I just going to go skiing when it snows and hopefully this forecast is wrong.
I agree with Scotty.

Warmer, colder, whatever. Snow is all about cold shots and precip happening at the same time. You could have an above average temperature winter and also above average snowfall. Who knows how that will work. Also, they get totally hedged on blocking which can really help us out. Nice made for TV spot to get people talking and get advertisers spending money. Let the flakes fly, when ever they do in what ever amount, nothing we can do about it except go skiing when it happens.

:beer:
 

JimG.

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I just going to go skiing when it snows and hopefully this forecast is wrong.

+1

I guess we just have to hope Sandy doesn't wipe out every ski area in NE.
 

BenedictGomez

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This is FANTASTIC NEWS!!!!!!!!!

Havent you people kept apprised of the recent track record of their long-range forecasts?

When they say Cold Winter it was near record breaking warmth, when they said mild we got record breaking snows.
 

BenedictGomez

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Throw another prediction shrimp on the barbie!

I dont personally take any of these long-range predictions too seriously given how historically "off" they are, but they're fun to look at.

But were this one to pan out, all of us in the east would be a winner, most notably the Catskills.



Wonk link below for full (and I do mean full) explanation.

http://epawablogs.com/epawas-2012-2013-winter-outlook/
 

Abubob

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My own personal feeling is that if the average temps are warmer there's more chance for precip than with colder than average temps. The reason for this is that when its colder than average it tends to include huge blasts of deep arctic air that is so heavy moisture cannot penetrate and is pushed away. With a slightly warmer outlook we could be in the storm track more often with warm moist air mixing with the cold and - hopefully - producing more snow.

Other than that - the National Weather Service still predicts equal chances for colder or warmer or wetter or drier weather for Nov-Dec-Jan.
 

BenedictGomez

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Other than that - the National Weather Service still predicts equal chances for colder or warmer or wetter or drier weather for Nov-Dec-Jan.

May through October = party cloudy, chance of rain :p
 

Abubob

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May through October = party cloudy, chance of rain :p

and they were RIGHT!!

I guess my earlier point was that there's no real prediction for the kind of winter we'll have and it could still go many directions. Lets see - partly cloudy with a chance of snow?
 

ScottySkis

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So I will predict that this winter in the North east it will snow , rain, Sun will come out, clouds will also be out some days will be in the 40s and some days will be in the - 0 , hopefully more o degrees days and snow then the opposite.
 

BenedictGomez

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Another prediction in for a very cold and snowy east coast winter.

Link below for full analysis, but I must warn you, the English is so awful it's only for the bravest among you.

CONCLUSION The historic East Coast hurricane sandy in late October and the noreaster on NOV 6-7 that followed are indicative of a significant change the pattern from the warm dry previous winter and the extreme Heat and drought the country experienced throughout the Spring and Summer 2012. Not only has the Arctic oscillation and North American oscillation shifted into persistent negative phase … but research shows that October seems to play a key role in determining the phases of the AO and NAO. In addition significant changes in the sea surface temperature anomalies have occurred. In the eastern Pacific along the West Coast of North America the huge pool of cold water has dissipated and the new SSTAs configuration now supports +PNA development over Western North America. While we may not see this on a consistent basis I believe there will be some intervals during the heart of the winter into the spring where we will see several bouts of very amplified West Coast Ridging ( +PNA) in the jet stream. This could lead to strong arctic air outbreaks.
The early season development of much above normal snowfall in Eurasia during October is a strong indication that this winter will be much more like the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11.
When all of these factors are taken into consideration there is no rational reason NOT to be bullish on the upcomcing Winter of 2012-13 over the eastern half of the continent and the U.S. in particular. The only restricting factor that I can see right now… is the very strong and negative QBO cycle which is only now beginning to weaken. The data from CPC that tracks the QBO on a daily basis does show significant weakening over the past two weeks. It is quite possible then that strongly negative QBO will rise to a value -10 or higher during the second half of the winter which would be extremely favorable for above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures over the eastern half of the country.


http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/11/final-winter-preview-2012-13/
 

BenedictGomez

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And yet another prediction for an above average snow season for the Poconos, Cats, ADK's and VT, NH, ME.


There are several external sources of ionospheric forcing, these are solar wind-magnetospheric processes and lower atmospheric winds and waves. we review the observed ion-neutral coupling effects at equatorial and low latitudes during large meteorological events called sudden stratospheric warming. Research in this direction has been accelerated in recent years mainly due to solar minimum conditions. Given all these factors and leaning hard on the solar activity, a weak El Nino, Atlantic SST anomaly's, the PDO outlook the AO outlook, we expect the winter of 2012 - 2013 to be colder than normal with above normal snow in the north eastern sections of the United States.



http://www.angelfire.com/fl4/eastcoasttropicalwea/winter_forecast.htm
 

ScottySkis

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Catskills need another epic 10 foot dump this season like a few years ago.
 

Bene288

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Catskills need another epic 10 foot dump this season like a few years ago.

That was wild. My girlfriend's first time skiing was after that dump. Belleayre must have had 4-6 feet on the mountain, and for some reason it wasn't that busy. Great day that was.
 

ScottySkis

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That was wild. My girlfriend's first time skiing was after that dump. Belleayre must have had 4-6 feet on the mountain, and for some reason it wasn't that busy. Great day that was.



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She is a very lucky women, guess you need to take her to SLc for her powder fix.
If I remember it was like 10 feet of snow in 5 day for most of Catskills, I skied Hunter the following weekend and it was best Western type snow I ever skiied in the east.
 
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ScottySkis

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So for Sunday December 2 I'm seeing rain in snowforecast.com for mountain snow, a lot of rain or sprinkles, if I go to Catskills or more North of West Dover, VT like Stratton maybe snow, or should I try some other area's?
 
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