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Long Range NorEaster

ScottySkis

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Please be snow for the hills and just a little rain or nothing for the city's.
 

bzrperfspec77

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Please be snow for the hills and just a little rain or nothing for the city's.

Haha gotta love the PC comments now about hoping for snow. Hope everything is going good for you and your place of business Scotty.
 

ScottySkis

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Haha gotta love the PC comments now about hoping for snow. Hope everything is going good for you and your place of business Scotty.



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Thanks my place is okay but my job is another story.($1,000,000) gone due to flood and insurance not covering it , my boss has been pretty okay about it conserding how he normally is.
 

HowieT2

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324 hours out on the GFS warrants a thread?
calm down people. 'nothing to see here.

although, I must admit I am getting antsy as well.
 

Abubob

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324 hours out on the GFS warrants a thread?
calm down people. 'nothing to see here.

although, I must admit I am getting antsy as well.

It would just be cool if it panned out.

Here is the same model 24 hours later. While its showing the same storm is mostly rain for New England it still has a lot of cold air behind it. Also the blocking high over Greenland has been replace with a low.

Screen shot 2012-11-16 at 9.27.27 AM.jpg
 
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WinnChill

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It would just be cool if it panned out.

Here is the same model 24 hours later. While its showing the same storm is mostly rain for New England it still has a lot of cold air behind it. Also the blocking high over Greenland has been replace with a low.

View attachment 6851

I'm not getting too excited about this one. The setup isn't nearly as favorable as we had with recent storms. Had those occurred later in the season, we'd be doing cartwheels. But post T-day may not be able to get that cold air entirely through us--one of the biases of this particular model. I could see a mixing scenario ending as some snow again with the storm track through the region but not the offshore bomb that we'd like. Something to keep an eye on but at this rate most resorts should focus on all-out snowmaking.
 

jrmagic

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I'm not getting too excited about this one. The setup isn't nearly as favorable as we had with recent storms. Had those occurred later in the season, we'd be doing cartwheels. But post T-day may not be able to get that cold air entirely through us--one of the biases of this particular model. I could see a mixing scenario ending as some snow again with the storm track through the region but not the offshore bomb that we'd like. Something to keep an eye on but at this rate most resorts should focus on all-out snowmaking.

Hey Winn. A friend posted this no a non-ski site so his focus is around NYC but would you care to comment on this as reading it is getting me very excited...

Long range models are honking big time for an epic winter pattern for very late November and into the 1st 2 weeks of December. Pattern that is very similar to the famous winters of 95-96 and 2010-2011. Im hoping these pattern projections last.
 

WinnChill

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Hey Winn. A friend posted this no a non-ski site so his focus is around NYC but would you care to comment on this as reading it is getting me very excited...

Long range models are honking big time for an epic winter pattern for very late November and into the 1st 2 weeks of December. Pattern that is very similar to the famous winters of 95-96 and 2010-2011. Im hoping these pattern projections last.

Tough call but there is some conficting data. The pattern configuration doesn't seem to favor an epic pattern per se--the blocking that made 10-11 was off the chart and we simply don't have that just yet--some features yes, other factors no--even though we had some blocking support during the last couple of storms. A slight pattern shift into early Dec could start favoring slight cold air advancement towards us but not really settling in. Again, tough call but I'm not seeing significant signs for storms of epic proportions (depending on what your definition of epic is of course). I could see slightly more systems rolling through early Dec but could be inland runners/clippers (mixing) without the deeper cold we need for ocean bombs. Many seasonal forecasts (including Snowforecast's) were predicated upon a weak El Nino but that has already changed--that's why SF.com held back on publishing so we can revise things a bit. We'll also be issuing our custom, detailed Northeast forecasts when the pattern picks up. Until then, we've been focused on site rennovations...more to follow. Thanks for the question.
 

ScottySkis

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Any chance of lake effect for Ny Roxbury, home of my favorite place soon?
 

Abubob

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I could see slightly more systems rolling through early Dec but could be inland runners/clippers (mixing) without the deeper cold we need for ocean bombs.

That is almost exactly what the GFS model is showing now - a few clipper like systems coming through. The big storm shown two day ago is completely off the model. Two systems that were shown to join no longer meet and the blocking high is shown much too far south. So the NAO is shown to be no longer negative but positive for the 29th.

This model changes like the weather and it may show that a storm forms again as new runs are made. Here's hoping. :spin:

Picture 9.jpg
 

Abubob

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Any chance of lake effect for Ny Roxbury, home of my favorite place soon?

Doesn't look like it until after the TG holiday. Looks like a bit of a warming trend this coming week before TG but turning colder after.
 

BenedictGomez

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That is almost exactly what the GFS model is showing now - a few clipper like systems coming through.

Isnt the GFS historically kindof crappy for long-range prediction? Or, at least maybe I should say dont weather people usually pay more attention/credence to the Euro or UKMET for longer range stuff?

Any chance of lake effect for Ny Roxbury, home of my favorite place soon?

I'm still shocked by the fact that Plattekill gets substantial Lake Effect snow from a lake that is over 150 miles away. It just boggles my mind that the effect can travel that far of a distance.
 

ScottySkis

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Isnt the GFS historically kindof crappy for long-range prediction? Or, at least maybe I should say dont weather people usually pay more attention/credence to the Euro or UKMET for longer range stuff?



I'm still shocked by the fact that Plattekill gets substantial Lake Effect snow from a lake that is over 150 miles away. It just boggles my mind that the effect can travel that far of a distance.

Vermont lake effect also comes from both the Great lakes and Lake Champaign. Basically it just goes into their in a hill to pull it down, and Platty is the hill. There is a great article I think on Harvey Road blog about how lake effect works, I try finding it when I have computer service later, now I'm I'm my phone also I probably posted in a platty thread last year I think.

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BenedictGomez

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Vermont lake effect also comes from both the Great lakes and Lake Champaign. Basically it just goes into their in a hill to pull it down, and Platty is the hill. There is a great article I think on Harvey Road blog about how lake effect works,

I remember reading that last year, it really is fascinating.
 

Abubob

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Aaaand its back. This model will do this back and forth for days but I think its really onto something.

Picture 10.jpg
 
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