Nor Easter this weekend

[gmcunni]

Caught a blurb on the news last night that we might see a snow producing Nor Easter this weekend.. Any of you closet (or professional) meteorologists have early insight to what's coming?

 

[4aprice]

Oh man I hope it comes true. The conditions this weekend here in the Pocono's were awesome with out it but I'm just drooling at the thought of a good old natural dump.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[billski]

Ho hum. Too early to get excited. Talk to me on Thursday...

The only tickle I see is over at http://www.snowforecast.com
suggesting a very slim chance:

"Saturday--Another ocean storm threatens us but may hold offshore--we'll keep watching this one closely--so far we remain dry as high pressure may keep it at bay-"

 

[Harvey]

Promets and amateurs have been watching this one for days. Unfortunately the trend seems to be more and more towards are repeat of the storm last Friday that hit Virginia hard and then went out to sea.

Hope not. It's still a long way off.

That Joe Bastardi long range from July has been eerily accurate for the northeast.

Bastardi's Long Range

 

[2knees]

NOAA's take on it this morning.

WEEKEND SYSTEM...YESTERDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE 24 HOURS APART ON
TIMING BUT BOTH CARRYING A GULF OF MEXICO LOW UP THE COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS MORNING THEY BOTH TAKE THE STORM UP TO CAPE HATTERAS
AND THEN MOVE IT OUT TO SEAS WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE QPF STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTERS...BUT WITH MOST OF THEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WITH THE MEAN
LOCATION CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THE GGLOBAL COMES WITHIN
THE TIME RANGE ON THIS MODEL RUN...AND CELEBRATES THIS BY BEING THE
NORTHERN OUTLIER OF THE GROUP WITH THE LOW CENTER MOVING PAST
ATLANTIC CITY SATURDAY AND QPF INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. AS THIS IS A DAY 6/DAY 7 FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT
GREAT. THE ONLY CONFIDENCE WE HAVE AT THIS POINT IS THAT THERE
SHOULD BE A WINTER STORM ON THE PROWL SOMEWHERE OFF THE EAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THE PROBABILITY OF IT REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LOOKS LOW RIGHT NOW...BUT WE WILL MENTION LOW-END CHANCE POPS IN
RI/EASTERN MASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

 

[deadheadskier]

Hope it pans out. If things stay as they currently are I'll probably end up bagging Cannon on Superbowl Sunday and just go to Ragged instead.

 

[Glenn]

We could use some snow. The cold has been nice, but some fresh stuff would be even better.

 

[billski]

We could use some snow. The cold has been nice, but some fresh stuff would be even better.

the cold just keeps what we've got. But we gotta get more

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

Other then a positive blurb in relation to said storm a day or two ago, most have this going well out to see now. So that being said.......we have at least another two weeks till we get anything of widespread and worthwhile here in the NE.

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

Thank god I didn't buy a pass this year, between losing my job, the weather, and a small house fire it has taken the sting out of it a little bit. However snowshoing, snowmobiling and x-country skiing has sucked as well...ugh.

 

[Glenn]

Well, it now may be tracking a bit closer...but they're still not saying much.

 

[Bostonian]

This morning on Channels 4 and 5 they were talking about the storm and the potential to track closer to the cape and islands. Hard to say at this point, either way, I will take any snow!

 

[billski]

I started hatching a play to ski on Monday. The decision has nothing to do with the weather, but neither did the last trip. I don't know nothing about the weather, but this trend has been going on for three years now. Just sayin'.

So, for those of you who think it always snows when I go out, you might want to stay tuned.

Disclaimer: I have had a day or two that went snow bust scattered about in there.

 

[billski]

nws, feb 2

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD...DRY WEATHER. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOLUTION BECAUSE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A WEEK
FROM NOW. WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

Translation: Nobody knows.

 

[drjeff]

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD...DRY WEATHER. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOLUTION BECAUSE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A WEEK
FROM NOW. WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

Translation: Nobody knows.

Yup, some of the stuff I was looking over for later this week seems to indicate that our best chance for a storm would be in the late Friday/Early Saturday time frame.

Right now though to get a "good" storm, we need to get the Southern Portion of the Jet Stream later this week to move a bit further North, since the low pressure system that will give us the potential later this week is basicall going to start it's track over North America somewhere near the US/Mexico border and the hopefully for snow potential make a solid Northeast move as it head to/up the East Coast, unlike the storm thats going to pass over basically North Carolina and then head right out, almost Due East over the Atlantic tommorrow.

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

Yup, some of the stuff I was looking over for later this week seems to indicate that our best chance for a storm would be in the late Friday/Early Saturday time frame.

Right now though to get a "good" storm, we need to get the Southern Portion of the Jet Stream later this week to move a bit further North, since the low pressure system that will give us the potential later this week is basicall going to start it's track over North America somewhere near the US/Mexico border and the hopefully for snow potential make a solid Northeast move as it head to/up the East Coast, unlike the storm thats going to pass over basically North Carolina and then head right out, almost Due East over the Atlantic tommorrow.

I bet tomorrows storm going out to sea along the Carolinas will bring us more snow the storm this weekend....ie a dusting to an inch of the NH lowlands and an inch or two in the higher elevations.

 

[drjeff]

I bet tomorrows storm going out to sea along the Carolinas will bring us more snow the storm this weekend....ie a dusting to an inch of the NH lowlands and an inch or two in the higher elevations.

That's my hunch too (unfortunately). Looks like we're probably going to have a nice, big, strong dome of high presssure parked over New England this weekend, probably more likely to get a goggle tan than face shots Still hope though as there's plenty that can happen as the storm is basically drinking Tequilla over Tijuana now

 

[KingM]

So, are we ever going to get a snow storm this winter? Ever?

 

[jrmagic]

That's my hunch too (unfortunately). Looks like we're probably going to have a nice, big, strong dome of high presssure parked over New England this weekend, probably more likely to get a goggle tan than face shots Still hope though as there's plenty that can happen as the storm is basically drinking Tequilla over Tijuana now

Well lets hope tha it drinks enough that it forgets its current path and wanders several hundred miles north.

 

[billski]

So, are we ever going to get a snow storm this winter? Ever?

Maybe you'd better move.:???: I've already done two white-knuckle trips in New England, both snow-induced.