NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!

[Rowsdower]

Is there still anything on the ground in the southern Greens? Does Magic still have coverage or is this gonna fall on top of bare ground?

 

[BenedictGomez]

Sweet. Jesus.

I know it's just one run of one models...but 00z GFS just spat out an epic storm that actually hits SKI COUNTRY. Not New Jersey. Not the Poconos. Not Long Island. Not the Cape. Not just Sugarloaf and Sunday River. ALL of ski country!

Solid 2 feet + in the Green Mountain spine, at Catskills, and the ADKs..

And the Canadian took the same system OTS, so Vermont gets 2 inches, and the 2 feet amounts are over Cape Cod and the ocean.

It will be interesting to see the Euro run tonight, because prior to this run, the GFS, Canuck, and Euro were all in unusual lock-step agreement with this storm.

Now, while the GFS and Canadian both still have a huge snowstorm, the GFS is almost an ideal track for ski country, an Oprah System, but the Canadian is the worst-case scenario track for ski country, with a mere 6" in the Poconos being the biggest winner.

 

[St. Bear]

For what it's worth from this blowhard.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/840182444225617920

 

[NYDB]

Is there still anything on the ground in the southern Greens? Does Magic still have coverage or is this gonna fall on top of bare ground?

Minimal to no coverage in so vt on natural terrain, depending on elevation/sun exposure. Just look at magic webcam.

 

[tnt1234]

Now it looks like the Catskills and So Vt. are in on the action too.

Would take Camelback over Shawnee on a rare powder day. Midweek, March... probably won't be any crowds to contend with. I'd rather Frost if Happyland has enough cover though.

Blue is fun with a ton of snow too.

If my kids catch a snow day, might head up somewhere Wednesday. Have coupons for Blue and CB....probably pick one of those two I suppose.

 

[Glenn]

It's a bit far out to get excited, but there's potential Tuesday into Wednesday. I'll wait for the Sunday model runs before I start getting my hopes up.

 

[Rowsdower]

Im torn between Blue and Jack Frost. I'll take Frost over Blue if Happyland is on though.

 

[dlague]

Sweet. Jesus.

I know it's just one run of one models...but 00z GFS just spat out an epic storm that actually hits SKI COUNTRY. Not New Jersey. Not the Poconos. Not Long Island. Not the Cape. Not just Sugarloaf and Sunday River. ALL of ski country!

Solid 2 feet + in the Green Mountain spine, at Catskills, and the ADKs..

View attachment 22104

Holy shit! That would be perfect for the Northeast and would put a lot back in play!

Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[BenedictGomez]

Holy shit! That would be perfect for the Northeast and would put a lot back in play!

As long as the following storm doesnt change to rain like it does on the GFS today. If so it would only be back in play for maybe Thursday through Saturday (assuming it will be too windy to ski Wednesday). We need that next system to get just a bit colder.

 

[tumbler]

Haven't most of them been colder than originally modeled?

 

[BenedictGomez]

This pic is for Scotty.

The 12z GFS Kucheras > 3 feet on Platty. LOL @ snowporn.

 

[Not Sure]

This pic is for Scotty.

The 12z GFS Kucheras > 3 feet on Platty. LOL @ snowporn.

View attachment 22106

LOL ...Deja Vu ....Whole season average snowfall in one storm.

 

[Rowsdower]

Bring it.

 

[St. Bear]

This pic is for Scotty.

The 12z GFS Kucheras > 3 feet on Platty. LOL @ snowporn.

View attachment 22106

Elk?

 

[VTKilarney]

Why do these models always seem to greatly exaggerate the amount of snow we really get? Are they intended to be a "worst case" scenario? Because if they aren't, it seems like they are consistently WAY off.

 

[Cornhead]

Please be right, we deserve it after the past month. Only called in one day this season, and it wasn't even a powder day. Got lucky with quite a few weekend powder days early. Boss is back from vacation, just about caught up, calling in shouldn't be an issue. Bring it!

Sent from my Moto G (4) using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[andrec10]

Yes please!

 

[St. Bear]

Why do these models always seem to greatly exaggerate the amount of snow we really get? Are they intended to be a "worst case" scenario? Because if they aren't, it seems like they are consistently WAY off.

Models are not forecasts. They spit out the amount of precipitation that they expect will fall from the sky, but they don't factor in things like a warm ground, or evaporation before it hits the ground, etc? Even timing of the storm, how much falls before the sun rises for instance, especially in March vs Jan or Feb, can make a huge difference.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Why do these models always seem to greatly exaggerate the amount of snow we really get? Are they intended to be a "worst case" scenario? Because if they aren't, it seems like they are consistently WAY off.

Not so. The big storm last winter I was under 12" to 15" where I live several days out, and I wound up with 36". NWS repeatedly kept having to increase snow totals (they looked really bad).

 

[BenedictGomez]

FYI, mid-day Euro snowplot is in, and it's also still displaying a blizzard, just a bit more to the east than the GFS, so obviously lower snow totals, but still a good 15" or 16" for the Poconos.