NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!

[BenedictGomez]

How is NH looking? Specifically the East side (Wildcat and MWV)?

So after looking up Wildcat on a map because I had absolutely no idea where it is.........

Here's my "eyeball" guess at what the various 12z runs have for that area today from looking at the pretty colors on the various models.

GFS ensembles = 5" or 6"
GFS op run = 6"

Canuck ensembles = 9"
Canuck op run = 13"

Euro ensembles = 12"
Euro op run = 26"

UKIE* = 12"

*18z and no snow maps with the UKIE, so I did the math on the qpf it spits out and that's what it translates to

Blue is closer, but I enjoy Jack Frost for open woods, and Camelback is just Camelback and will probably do something like groom everything out for Wednesday.

4aprice mentioned he hit Camelback on the 20" day last year and they did just that. I would have been violently angry and burned the place down. Blue Mountain did the right thing and let it remain powder. Pretty sure I'll hit Shawnee Wednesday if this plays out right, as I think it will be the least crowded of the options.

Other option is Elk....farther if you are coming from the south, but they definitely don't groom everything out. They do not allow any tree skiing at all though.

Fascists.

 

[Rowsdower]

Blue has two very short maintained glades on the map...Blue Baumer at the top of Lazy Mile and Sleepy Hollow, skier's left of Main Street. Both are really short. There are a bunch of bike trails and other areas at blue that are really fun if there is enough snow. They don't really have the open woods policy that JF has, but I've never been yelled at there. Not sure what the base is like in the pokes, so not really sure even this big dump will ut much of that stuff in play.

But if there is a ton of snow and you can get there the day after, I think Blue is the way to go. They will probably not groom everything the first day - at least that was true last year after that one big storm....they left Switch Back and Nightmare>Dream Weaver ungroomed and it was great.


Jack Frost is a lot of fun with snow, but if you can hit it right after the storm, I think I would go for the higher vertical and high speed lifts of Blue.

Other option is Elk....farther if you are coming from the south, but they definitely don't groom everything out. They do not allow any tree skiing at all though.

There's about 3-4 inches on the ground now. Not much, but maintained glades need less snow. I was at Blue last year after the big storm and ended up bushwhacking. Bad idea. If there isn't any base you need that area cleared out, or otherwise know what areas are relatively obstacle free.

You can definitely have fun up there after a big storm. Well, you can have fun anywhere after a big storm

Oh, also, I keep hearing these stories about the Elk patrol yanking passes for ducking into the woods. I've never encountered that. I *have* witnessed people get passes pulled for skiing the woods or ripping up the liftline at Camelback.

 

[Not Sure]

Not sure what the base is like in the pokes, so not really sure even this big dump will ut much of that stuff in play.
.

Blue from this past thursday , looked like they made a decent effort making snow to get through the blowtorch, not sure if they have made any since, they reported 6" from the last storm . Lots of video on youtube of guys cutting through the mountain bike areas and a few other spots but Blue has lots of undergrowth around ,just have to pick your way through .

 

[Rowsdower]

Blue from this past thursday , looked like they made a decent effort making snow to get through the blowtorch, not sure if they have made any since, they reported 6" from the last storm . Lots of video on youtube of guys cutting through the mountain bike areas and a few other spots but Blue has lots of undergrowth around ,just have to pick your way through .

I was at Bear Creek today and there was about 2-3 inches of natural snow on the ground. I suspect the Poconos have a little more, and they were making a lot of snow through last night. Coverage was pretty good most everywhere.

 

[BenedictGomez]

View attachment 22130

Blue from this past thursday

Holy crap I had no idea it was that desperate up there. If that's representative of most trails it would be nearly season over without more snow.

 

[Not Sure]

There's about 3-4 inches on the ground now. Not much, but maintained glades need less snow. I was at Blue last year after the big storm and ended up bushwhacking. Bad idea. If there isn't any base you need that area cleared out, or otherwise know what areas are relatively obstacle free.

You can definitely have fun up there after a big storm. Well, you can have fun anywhere after a big storm

Oh, also, I keep hearing these stories about the Elk patrol yanking passes for ducking into the woods. I've never encountered that. I *have* witnessed people get passes pulled for skiing the woods or ripping up the liftline at Camelback.

The Elk Gestapo is for real ,rode the lift with a patroller who spotted a set of board tracks on a roped off trail " Ah ha! a cople of shredders I'm going to catch them " . Myself and another skier this year were begging the patrollers to drop the rope at the top of an untracked 24" trail in December . They said the decision was not in there hands ....I serously contemplated ripping off my ticket and handing it to them .It rained a day or two later :angry: . I think the place needs new owners a BG laments! So much potential glade skiing going to waste.

 

[Rowsdower]

The Elk Gestapo is for real ,rode the lift with a patroller who spotted a set of board tracks on a roped off trail " Ah ha! a cople of shredders I'm going to catch them " . Myself and another skier this year were begging the patrollers to drop the rope at the top of an untracked 24" trail in December . They said the decision was not in there hands ....I serously contemplated ripping off my ticket and handing it to them .It rained a day or two later :angry: . I think the place needs new owners a BG laments! So much potential glade skiing going to waste.

That's a damn shame. I guess the stories are warranted then. I haven't been there in years and the distance keeps me from making the trip.

Anyway, if we do get 24 inches I won't be going anywhere Tuesday, so now I'm looking for any potential hikes in Bucks Co. I've also been tossing around the idea of staying with my folks out in Berks Co. The forest behind our property there has got several logging roads and old drovers/mine access roads that could be interesting if two feet of snow drop on them.

 

[Not Sure]

I was at Bear Creek today and there was about 2-3 inches of natural snow on the ground. I suspect the Poconos have a little more, and they were making a lot of snow through last night. Coverage was pretty good most everywhere.

Bear creek has a few fun gladed areas .....Caveat and a lot of BIG rocks , shame it has no pitch for a big snow .

 

[Not Sure]

That's a damn shame. I guess the stories are warranted then. I haven't been there in years and the distance keeps me from making the trip.

Anyway, if we do get 24 inches I won't be going anywhere Tuesday, so now I'm looking for any potential hikes in Bucks Co. I've also been tossing around the idea of staying with my folks out in Berks Co. The forest behind our property there has got several logging roads and old drovers/mine access roads that could be interesting if two feet of snow drop on them.

Worth the ride ! The last three times I've been there the Poc's were crap and Elk was powder.

 

[Rowsdower]

Bear creek has a few fun gladed areas .....Caveat and a lot of BIG rocks , shame it has no pitch for a big snow .

They cleared out some of the woods for mountain biking. You're right though, none have any pitch.

We used to joke about the "back bowls". There are some snowmobile trails off the backside but you have to hike out.

 

[Not Sure]

They cleared out some of the woods for mountain biking. You're right though, none have any pitch.

We used to joke about the "back bowls". There are some snowmobile trails off the backside but you have to hike out.

Going to JT on Wednesday morning 3 possibilities as long as the forecast delivers or there's always this if we only get 6"

 

[Rowsdower]

Going to JT on Wednesday morning 3 possibilities as long as the forecast delivers or there's always this if we only get 6"
View attachment 22131

You take what you can get in PA.

 

[BenedictGomez]

00z NAM is in and it has me REALLY excited.

Why? Because it was one of only 2 models (GFS) that were raining on many people's ski parade by:

A) keeping snow totals down below other models
B) not making this a Ski The East event, but more of a Pocono, s.VT, s.NH event.

That's TOTALLY changed with the 00z run, which is a beautiful Oprah run. YOU get a snowstorm! YOU get a snowstorm! And YOU get a snowstorm! EVERYbody gehts a snowstorm!

Lastly, the NAM is now in it's sweet-spot range that it's designed for, given more confidence that this is potentially correct.

 

[BenedictGomez]

And then there were NONE.

00z GFS caves to the other models!!!!!!

 

[Tin]

This is scary.



The pink deform band is Feb 2013-like and will throw down 4-6" per hour.

 

[Bostonian]

Tin am I reading that first chart right with wind gusts in excess of 60MPH through most of massachusetts? That is scary!

 

[Tin]

Tin am I reading that first chart right with wind gusts in excess of 60MPH through most of massachusetts? That is scary!

Yes, everyone is caught up with the snow yet these will be some of the craziest winds since Hurricane Bob for RI/E Mass. Factor in the more NW track, which means mixing and heavy wet snow, and there will be TONS of power outages.

 

[Bostonian]

Yes, everyone is caught up with the snow yet these will be some of the craziest winds since Hurricane Bob for RI/E Mass. Factor in the more NW track, which means mixing and heavy wet snow, and there will be TONS of power outages.

Well hopefully, people will be able to weather the storm with minimal impacts. The other concern now I see with the high winds would be the storm surge within our coastal communities. Looks like we will all be hunkered down for a good 24 hours.

 

[Glenn]

NWS out of Albany has issued a WSW for SoVT. Wondering if they'll change that to a Blizzard warning with the winds.

Glad I have my chainsaw in CT for this event. We lost two ash trees last storm.

But this storm should be pretty big! Be safe everyone.

 

[tnt1234]

View attachment 22130

Blue from this past thursday , looked like they made a decent effort making snow to get through the blowtorch, not sure if they have made any since, they reported 6" from the last storm . Lots of video on youtube of guys cutting through the mountain bike areas and a few other spots but Blue has lots of undergrowth around ,just have to pick your way through .

Yikes. That's thin.