NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!

[Tin]

At this moment, based on the confluence of models, if I were pressed, I'd guess Berks to s.VT to s.NH ski areas will be the biggest winners. Likewise, if pressed, I'd guess ADK is most likely to get screwed, followed by Jay Peak, but again, everyone gets some snow.

Deform band central for Cats, Berks, SVT to SNH taking into account before frames. Legit 3-4"+ per hour stuff.

Although the GFS appears further east on the low track it is just slower and actually a step west.

 

[St. Bear]

Likewise, if pressed, I'd guess ADK is most likely to get screwed, followed by Jay Peak, but again, everyone gets some snow.

I'm irrationally convinced Poconos will end up with 5-7". While not technically screwed, it would be a disappointment after the hype.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Although the GFS appears further east on the low track it is just slower and actually a step west.

The 12z GFS by far screws the most skiers, definitely the farthest east of the models, that would stink no doubt. The 12z Canuck that just finished and is west of that would please everyone though. So net/net, the 12z Euro run that's about to happen is by far the most important run of this entire storm, to see if it holds serve with the Canadian or wobbles east to the GFS. I'm hopeful it will stay west given the NAM is now in range, and that NAM looked absolutely great for literally every eastern skier.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I'm irrationally convinced Poconos will end up with 5-7". While not technically screwed, it would be a disappointment after the hype.

That's no longer completely irrational, as I mentioned, there's a map for that! It's called the 12z GFS, puts about 5" - 8" in the Poconos, the least of any map.

You'd rather have 2 FEET? There's a map for that too! It's the 12z Canuck, probably 20" - 24" in the Pokes.

Complete model disagreement at < 36 hours.

 

[Tin]

The 12z GFS by far screws the most skiers, definitely the farthest east of the models,

It was slower and west of its previous models at 6z. Not picking up the SW enough. Ukie just put down feet from NY and southern New England Ski areas.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Ukie just put down feet from NY and southern New England Ski areas.

That thing's hysterical. Historic.

Too bad I cant recall a single time when the UKMET nailed an eastern winter storm better than the ECMWF, GFS, Canuck, etc....

 

[BenedictGomez]

Ugh.... Canadian ensembles out and it's well east of the operational run. That's.....not good.

 

[Tin]

EURO = Top 3/5 snowstorm for NYC and New England

 

[Savemeasammy]

At least one line! You should come down wed


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I have ski vt vouchers to burn...


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[Tin]

Not a kuchera fan but this is BELIEVABLE given temps (14-15:1). Maybe knock off 2-3".

 

[Not Sure]

2nd call ....Yes....Escape route planning ????

 

[BenedictGomez]

^I'm wondering how this will play out with wind and other issues.

I imagine even if the wind dies down, I'm guessing Tuesday evening is an absolute no-go due to the 19th century nature of the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation's Roads Department? At that point I'm just hoping kids dont have off Wednesday to tear it all up, and maybe I can leave work early and get to Shawnee by 5pm or so.

Call it 15" to 25" for the Poconos right now, and that doesnt happen every winter, so I definitely want to go.

 

[Glenn]

Hoping this delivers for SoVT. Albany office has a winter storm watch for SoVT right now. Fingers crossed for an upgrade for a warning.

Surely it's going to be a s-show in the flatlands. I think I can hear the complaining now. ; )


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[St. Bear]

^I'm wondering how this will play out with wind and other issues.

I imagine even if the wind dies down, I'm guessing Tuesday evening is an absolute no-go due to the 19th century nature of the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation's Roads Department? At that point I'm just hoping kids dont have off Wednesday to tear it all up, and maybe I can leave work early and get to Shawnee by 5pm or so.

Call it 15" to 25" for the Poconos right now, and that doesnt happen every winter, so I definitely want to go.

I put in for PTO on Wed last week, so your lips to Brady's ears.

I'm thinking JFBB, mostly because I've never been.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Hoping this delivers for SoVT.

You're looking good. At this point, that's in the 2nd place slot of ski country for this storm.

I'm thinking JFBB, mostly because I've never been.

Never been there either, mainly cause it's a bit farther from me than Shawnee, Camelback, and Blue Mountain.

 

[snoseek]

You're looking good. At this point, that's in the 2nd place slot of ski country for this storm.



Never been there either, mainly cause it's a bit farther from me than Shawnee, Camelback, and Blue Mountain.

How is NH looking? Specifically the East side (Wildcat and MWV)?

Thanks

 

[St. Bear]

Never been there either, mainly cause it's a bit farther from me than Shawnee, Camelback, and Blue Mountain.

Those are the places you want to ski.

 

[Rowsdower]

Never been there either, mainly cause it's a bit farther from me than Shawnee, Camelback, and Blue Mountain.

I got a season pass to JF/BB this winter. Jack Frost is like a smaller, quieter Blue Mountain without the high speed lifts and somewhat colder temps being on top of the Pocono Plateau.

There are maintained glades skiers right of Thunderbolt, Challenge (Happyland), and Floyd's Folly (east "left" side of the mountain looking at the map) which are I believe the only "official" gladed runs in the Poconos. Steeps are short but have got a decent pitch. I've enjoyed it as PA mountains go.

If they get 12 inches+ it'll be a tough decision. Blue is closer, but I enjoy Jack Frost for open woods, and Camelback is just Camelback and will probably do something like groom everything out for Wednesday.

 

[bigbog]

Flurries all around the area this evening, Madison to Bangor. Hope the major event doesn't drift out to sea too much. Hoping for something @SL Wednesday AM.

 

[tnt1234]

I got a season pass to JF/BB this winter. Jack Frost is like a smaller, quieter Blue Mountain without the high speed lifts and somewhat colder temps being on top of the Pocono Plateau.

There are maintained glades skiers right of Thunderbolt, Challenge (Happyland), and Floyd's Folly (east "left" side of the mountain looking at the map) which are I believe the only "official" gladed runs in the Poconos. Steeps are short but have got a decent pitch. I've enjoyed it as PA mountains go.

If they get 12 inches+ it'll be a tough decision. Blue is closer, but I enjoy Jack Frost for open woods, and Camelback is just Camelback and will probably do something like groom everything out for Wednesday.

Blue has two very short maintained glades on the map...Blue Baumer at the top of Lazy Mile and Sleepy Hollow, skier's left of Main Street. Both are really short. There are a bunch of bike trails and other areas at blue that are really fun if there is enough snow. They don't really have the open woods policy that JF has, but I've never been yelled at there. Not sure what the base is like in the pokes, so not really sure even this big dump will ut much of that stuff in play.

But if there is a ton of snow and you can get there the day after, I think Blue is the way to go. They will probably not groom everything the first day - at least that was true last year after that one big storm....they left Switch Back and Nightmare>Dream Weaver ungroomed and it was great.


Jack Frost is a lot of fun with snow, but if you can hit it right after the storm, I think I would go for the higher vertical and high speed lifts of Blue.

Other option is Elk....farther if you are coming from the south, but they definitely don't groom everything out. They do not allow any tree skiing at all though.