NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!

[jack97]

Records indicated that winter has been shrinking in duration at both ends, but the core of winter is not warming. There is evidence to suggest that snowfall may even be increasing, though a lack of a consistent snowfall record complicates this conclusion.

Please cite the links or articles that shows this trend.

 

[Los]

Please cite the links or articles that shows this trend.

What an insincere, passive aggressive request (and a spectacularly inept and cringeworthy attempt to be clever).



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[Los]

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[jack97]

What an insincere, passive aggressive request (and a spectacularly inept and cringeworthy attempt to be clever).



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Actually, I' m interested in reading any articles and seeing the data that may support this hypothesis. As for other remarks, I am purposely ignoring them to stay civil.

 

[dlague]

Yes, that is consistent with most studies to date. Records indicated that winter has been shrinking in duration at both ends, but the core of winter is not warming. There is evidence to suggest that snowfall may even be increasing, though a lack of a consistent snowfall record complicates this conclusion. All of this is consistent with a warming global climate, especially in the Arctic. The hypothesized connection is that a warmer Arctic Ocean is leading a less stable polar vortex. When the polar vortex splits you get rapid, dramatic warming in the Arctric and a cold air outbreak to mid-latitudes. New England is one of the favored locations of these outbreaks due to a coincidence of geography.

I need to find the article but it has a different spin. Stating that the winter is just as long as normal but there are more temperature swings.

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[jack97]

^^^ I would be interested in reading the article as well.

Getting back to AER, Cohen is using the Arctic Oscillation index to predict the upcoming winter. His hypothesis is if the AO is negative, parts of the mid west to the east coast will get that blast of cold. This index has been measured and calculated since 1900, I assume before the era of remote sensing, the index was based on re-analysis. As a side, getting more data from the past would be a good indicator of long range prediction.

 

[jack97]

while I was doing yard work this afternoon, the "Siberian Express" catch phrase got recalled from my memory. Attached is an article, within is an interesting paragraph, the cold outbreak of 1899 could be the reason why NOAA and its predecessors has been tracking things up at the arctic.

“The cold outbreak of 1899 is kind of the benchmark for cold outbreaks to beat, and this one looks like it’ll either compare or be even more impressive,” said Kevin Roth, lead meteorologist at The Weather Channel. “The cold records likely to fall have been standing since before the automobile was invented in the U.S.”


In addition, the pattern Bastardi is predicting is close to what happen 14/15. That season, we had a warm Dec and Jan, recall Brady's deflategate game occurred during an abnormally warm Jan and then it went cold for several months. This upcoming season, Bastardi thinks the cold will happen sooner. Not sure if we will get the warm spells but hope its stays cold long enough to make man made.

http://majornews.us/archives/667

 

[bdfreetuna]

came here for how cold and snowy it's gonna be in November. Only found a bunch of climate change speculation. Are we still doing weather in this forum?

 

[skibumski]

came here for how cold and snowy it's gonna be in November. Only found a bunch of climate change speculation. Are we still doing weather in this forum?

I gotta agree... can we leave climate change discussion to an off topic thread and stay focused on the upcoming weather here? No isolated instance of weather proves or disproves climate change, so what's the point?

 

[jack97]

Forecasters are saying the pattern up at the Arctic will shift as a result of the seasonal obliquity, the GFS is showing this while other models has shown it for some time. Bastardi is predicting that a cold outbreak will happen middle of this month. Since had we had a record El Nino, this has left the temps near the great lakes abnormally warm so he is predicting lake effect snow as well.

During fall, I've been tracking the Siberian snowpack, it's extent and rate of change was large this year. If Bastardi and Cohen are right, it will be cold enough for man made in Nov. And now I'm hearing rumblings of some winter storms in Dec.

 

[Los]

Actually, I' m interested in reading any articles and seeing the data that may support this hypothesis. As for other remarks, I am purposely ignoring them to stay civil.

My apologies.


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[ALLSKIING]

This storm could be the start to the pattern change!

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[Tin]

This storm could be the start to the pattern change!

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240 out but on my birthday...don't know whether to wishcast for winter to begin or dismiss.

 

[dlague]

240 out but on my birthday...don't know whether to wishcast for winter to begin or dismiss.

That looks really wet! Maybe snow on the backside?

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[yeggous]

it will be cold enough for man made in Nov

some winter storms in Dec

Bold statements!

I've held off replying to this thread until I have some time to dig up some references. A full literature search is not something I have the time or motivation to do. It's also difficult to give considering the pervasive paywalls in academic literature. (Another topic for another time.)

For those who want to know how people are forecasting these cold air outbreaks far in advance, and what the polar vortex has to do with it:
doi:10.1002/qj.620
doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1

Arctic sea ice reductions resulting in more cold air mixing south:
doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00421.x
doi:10.1038/ncomms5646
doi:10.3402/polar.v30i0.15787

Shorter winters... the studies here are numerous. The most reliable ones are those that use ecological markers as they eliminate any arguments about instrumentation bias or errors. It's nearly impossible to claim that biology has some sort of developing systematic bias. One example is below:
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x
Snowfall also shows a similar spring melting trend:
doi:10.1029/2006GL027258

As for Judah Cohen's seasonal forecasts, they rely on October snowfall in Siberia. The hypothesized link is through a weakening of the polar vortex:
doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2746:EOARTE>2.0.CO;2
doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1725.1
If you believe him, this winter will be cold. The index is very strong this year.

Regarding climate change discussions, let's be very clear about something. To rely on a physics analogy, climate and weather are linked in the same way as your position and speed. The science of climate change is as strong as that of gravity and evolution. They are both well understood. Of those three topics, gravity is probably the most controversial.

 

[slatham]

This storm could be the start to the pattern change!

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This is the time frame to watch though there is no consensus amongst models or even run to run on the details (12Euro is further east but has TWO warm core lows on the front including one near NYC).

 

[Jully]

Bold statements!

I've held off replying to this thread until I have some time to dig up some references. A full literature search is not something I have the time or motivation to do. It's also difficult to give considering the pervasive paywalls in academic literature. (Another topic for another time.)

For those who want to know how people are forecasting these cold air outbreaks far in advance, and what the polar vortex has to do with it:
doi:10.1002/qj.620
doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1

Arctic sea ice reductions resulting in more cold air mixing south:
doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00421.x
doi:10.1038/ncomms5646
doi:10.3402/polar.v30i0.15787

Shorter winters... the studies here are numerous. The most reliable ones are those that use ecological markers as they eliminate any arguments about instrumentation bias or errors. It's nearly impossible to claim that biology has some sort of developing systematic bias. One example is below:
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x
Snowfall also shows a similar spring melting trend:
doi:10.1029/2006GL027258

As for Judah Cohen's seasonal forecasts, they rely on October snowfall in Siberia. The hypothesized link is through a weakening of the polar vortex:
doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2746:EOARTE>2.0.CO;2
doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1725.1
If you believe him, this winter will be cold. The index is very strong this year.

Regarding climate change discussions, let's be very clear about something. To rely on a physics analogy, climate and weather are linked in the same way as your position and speed. The science of climate change is as strong as that of gravity and evolution. They are both well understood. Of those three topics, gravity is probably the most controversial.

Thanks for the papers Yeggous! I appreciate the searching, especially avoiding the paywalls...

 

[mriceyman]

Alot of warm air with the storm but its is def a welcome change to this pattern


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[jack97]

Shorter winters... the studies here are numerous. The most reliable ones are those that use ecological markers as they eliminate any arguments about instrumentation bias or errors. It's nearly impossible to claim that biology has some sort of developing systematic bias. One example is below:
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x
Snowfall also shows a similar spring melting trend:
doi:10.1029/2006GL027258

First, thank you for spending the time on generating these links to the article. I read the Dyer et al paper on Spatial Variability and Trends... , the other paper, Onset of Spring starting earlier across the NH by Schwartz et al was paywalled so I just read the abstract. As for the latter, using the biological markers for spring detection is well known however spring is just one end of the snow season, what about the start? As for the former paper, the SCE was based on surface measurements so the sampling from these stations can result in questionable findings.

The Rutgers snow lab published fall, winter and spring snow SCE plots from 1967 to present, the link to these graphs are shown below. The plots do show SCE decreasing in spring while it has been increasing in both fall and winter.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1


The paper below uses the satellite data and shows the seasons are shifting as the plots above have shown. The paper concludes a net neutral effect. Of intetrest to me is what is causing this shift.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/robinson_pubs/refereed/Choi_Robinson_and_Kang_2010.pdf

 

[jack97]

Alot of warm air with the storm but its is def a welcome change to this pattern


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Revised winter forecast from Weatherbell, still saying and putting it on the line that Dec will be cold.
IIRC, the cold should happen ~ week before thanksgiving.

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast-update