Official Thanksgiving Day Storm HYPE Thread

[Joshua]

forget accuweather

for days they were saying it would be too warm for any snow and now models are converging on a solution showing at a minimum rain changing to a snow mon/tues with an all snow storm for thursday

so, its on, and it can't come soon enough

if anyone is interested read the latest vermont forecast discussions for more details

 

[Crock]

ehh what the hell. Last Thanksgiving I was skiing in tunder and lightning. Too bad it rained. I still have never seen a snow-thunder storm.

 

[freeheelwilly]

This is great news. And this little gem culled from the Burlington NWS Office forecast discussion puts a big grin on my face:

"AT THIS TIME HIGHEST THREAT OF PROLONGED HEAVY SNOWFALL
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NRN NY/ESP DACKS...WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST
UNDERGOING TRANSITION DURING THE DAY. THUS INITIAL FORECAST WILL
ADVERTISE RAIN OVERSPREADING FA FROM THE SOUTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY BEING MIXED WITH OR STARTING AS ALL SNOW NRN NY...ESP
DACKS DURING THIS PERIOD."

AND they go on to discuss the possibility of a fairly significant clipper bringing even more on Thurs-Thursday night. Whiteface may have a HELL of an opening day on Friday.

 

[Strat]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.p...1=Moretown&product1=Special+Weather+Statement

*Insert non-expletive head-being-banged-into-wall-with-a-muffled-scream-noise here*

WHY do I have to go to to NYC over Thansgiving? WHY?!

 

[thetrailboss]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ008&warncounty=VTC023&local_place1=Moretown&product1=Special+Weather+Statement

*Insert non-expletive head-being-banged-into-wall-with-a-muffled-scream-noise here*

WHY do I have to go to to NYC over Thansgiving? WHY?!

OK...I see why you are upset...I'm going to CANNON on Friday and Saturday, so this is :beer: More motivation to get stuff done in anticipation of the event

 

[Zand]

2 storms this week.

The 1st might close the resorts for a couple of days starting Monday Night. It's forecasted to be all rain for everyone until Tuesday Night, when it changes over to 2-4" of snow for almost everyone. Wednesday looks VERY COLD with great snowmaking chances for everyone (temps below freezing for most of NE). Wednesday Night and Thanksgiving Day bring the chance for a VERY strong clipper and the potential for 6" of snow for everyone except for the immediate coast. After this storm, VERY COLD again, with temps in the 20s and continued chances for snow squalls into the weekend. Looking very good for the resorts opening Friday and although the ones open now may close Tuesday, they'll be right back at it Wednesday.

Here's to a WHITE THANKSGIVING! :beer:

 

[freeheelwilly]

It's forecasted to be all rain for everyone until Tuesday Night,

Everyone??? Not necessarily so according to the NWS. Not much, if any, rain forecasted for the Northern Adirondacks. Could be an all snow event for us.

 

[KingM]

I noticed, too, that the rain/snow line is developing right through Vermont. With good luck we might get several wet inches in that first part of the storm. With bad, it might start as some serious rain and not turn to snow until later. Either way, by this time next week we should see dramatically better conditions at the VT resorts. :beer:

 

[Zand]

Some special weather statements are out already for most of NE for Thursday's storm. Most of New England is expected to get at least a dusting, with all places over 1,000 feet getting much more than that. The resorts planning on opening Friday couldn't possibly be more excited...

 

[Joshua]

Winter Storm Watches are up for all of VT!!!

ITS ON!!!

Im thinking anyone over 1,000 feet sees at least 6 inches with the peaks seeing close to a foot of heavy wet snow!

This will be great to help the bases and thenupslope and a clipper bring probably another 4-6 inches of POW over the next four days!!!!

 

[Zand]

Winter Storm Watches are up for all of VT!!!

Yea, for tomorrow's storm. Why don't you post it in that thread?

 

[Joshua]

because this is the thread i started a week or soago about the thanksgiving week storm, and this is the bigger one. I said from the get go that it would be either +/- two days from thanksgiving.

 

[salida]

Joshua you're so smart...

First of all as you can surely read from the model outputs, Vermont is going to have a hard time squeaking any precip out of Tuesday's event as this storm has an extremely sharp westerly precip cutoff (one half of a county getting 1 qpf, and the other as little as .1 qpf) showing where ever this storm tracks the mountains to the west of it are screwed. And everyone over 1000 ft will not see snow, most likely it will start as freezing rain, and switch over to rain, at this point probably about 3,000 ft will be rain. Check out the different layers of the atmosphere for temperature gradients.

As for the clipper system, it looks to be more of a southern NE event, granted Northern New England will get some snow, but the higher precip amounts will be focused in the south.

I hate to burst your bubble but neither of these events look to be good storms for the mountain, the first one only hitting the tops of the mountains, and the second one dropping low moisture content snow (ie not good for base building).

As always things can change as dramatically in two days as they can in two weeks, but I'd like to quote myself from two weeks ago, and much of it remains the same.

yeah I'd bet the farm on the 240hrs GFS...











NOT... honestly man, yes there will be a storm in that period of time, but it remains to be see if it will be rain snow, even which week it will form in the end of november.

It would behoove everyone to check out some storm discussions, first off is the Mount Washington Observatory's daily statement www.mountwashington.org

Second is an excellent discussion on First Tracks, regarding this weeks storm... http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1337

I hate to be pessimistic but I wouldn't say this is the winner that it is being hyped to be. Joshua, if you could put up a detailed post, explaining your rationale, based on more than one model run of the NAM… I’d be glad to believe you, actually I would be ecstatic, because I love a good storm just as much as the next guy. But I think you’re jumping to conclusions.

 

[Joshua]

well, I am smart, and yes, almost anyone can read a model output (there used to be a guy on channel 11 in NYC who I don't think could), but i respectfully disagree as to who will see snow, how much will fall, and where the cut off will be

the low is going to track right along the thermal gradient on the eastern sea board (right over CC), which puts VT and Northern NH in a great spot to see heavy precip.

secondly, with a Northerly wind component for the ENTIRE storm any rain above 1,000 feet will change over to snow, and just like the big storm in October, the peaks are gonna do best.

Lastly, after the storm passes, plenty of moisture left over and with fresh cold air to squeeze out that moistute upsloap snows look favorable thru thursday and any clipper that comes along will only aid the cause

either way, we all want the same thing, snow!

 

[noski]

First of all as you can surely read from the model outputs, Vermont is going to have a hard time squeaking any precip out of Tuesday's event as this storm has an extremely sharp westerly precip cutoff (one half of a county getting 1 qpf, and the other as little as .1 qpf) showing where ever this storm tracks the mountains to the west of it are screwed. And everyone over 1000 ft will not see snow, most likely it will start as freezing rain, and switch over to rain, at this point probably about 3,000 ft will be rain.

mmmmm..... 6+" heavy/wet snow forcast for MRV Tuesday afternoon/evening. The fluffy stuff will come Thursday. That's pretty good squeaking....

 

[salida]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=67202

in regards to the sharp moisture cut off of the first storm...

 

[thetrailboss]

Looking good. Real good for N VT and N NH. 3-7 inches by tomorrow night and more on Thursday.

 

[Joshua]

AMEN!

Wouldnt be surprised if the same areas from the October storm are the winners from this one too!

 

[thetrailboss]

AMEN!

Wouldnt be surprised if the same areas from the October storm are the winners from this one too!

Nah, it is looking like places further North and West will be the winners. Last month it was elevation...K-mart is going to be on the border...

 

[Joshua]

i disagree, but time will tell

places N & W just arent going to see enough precip...but who the hell knows