Weather forecast map?

[abc]

In the past, I've use the "5 day forecast" map as a graphic way to see how a weather front moves from west to east. In the summer, that would show the front as pattern of rain (snow in the winter) moving from west to east. So one can get an idea which day a front/storm will hit a region of interest. It was useful for trip planning for a few days out. In the east, I found it helps to even beyond the 5 days, knowing any storm will typically keep on marching towards us from the midwest...

But seems many of the weather sites I've used in the past (weather.com, wunderground.com) had either removed those maps, or move them to premium service or something?

Or is there a different way of getting similar information across the country?

 

[KustyTheKlown]

Forecast Models

Real-time weather model forecast graphics

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[abc]

Fantastic! Thanks a million.

 

[p_levert]

Wow, a 16 day forecast. Of course, days 8-16 are probably complete BS, but still a fun tool. Thanks Kusty.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

no problem. thats the GFS model you often see referenced in narrative weather and snow reports. there are other major models but i haven't found as nifty a website for displaying them. you can also zoom in on regions. the model updates every 6 hours.

 

[cdskier]

no problem. thats the GFS model you often see referenced in narrative weather and snow reports. there are other major models but i haven't found as nifty a website for displaying them. you can also zoom in on regions. the model updates every 6 hours.

Mainly because the GFS is free...while much of the Euro data is only available if you pay for it.

The site you linked does have some other free models like the Canadian (CMC) model available with the same maps as the GFS for the most part. They have NAM as well, but NAM is a short-range model so you won't see data as far out as the GFS (not that it is accurate that far out anyway).

 

[slatham]

https://home.pivotalweather.com

Maybe not as nice a site as TT, but has Euro and others.

 

[ss20]

Pivotal is great for the Euro.

Just to be clear....these aren't "forecasts"...these are tools used in part to make a forecast. There's zero human input or meteoritical skill....just computers running simulations. @abc and others your local NOAA station would probably be best if you want map/graphics-based forecasts. They've really stepped up their game in recent years making easy-to-read maps for laypersons. My buddy is a meteorologist and he did a project for NOAA on graphics and what the "average" person wants to see that's easy to interpret and also informative.

For example, even the short-range models that do well when we're 3 days or less from an event will almost always over-do snowfall. Especially with mountains and coastal storms. You need that human input.

 

[spiderpig]

It's hard to find a good futurecast for radar like they use on local TV, even to try to look for a page with a video from the TV news broadcast. I had been using the following page for the past year or two, but it seems to have gone away.

Interactive Future Radar Forecast

High-resolution predictive weather radar. Animate the interactive future radar forecast in motion for the next 12 to 72 hours.

www.iweathernet.com

 

[abc]

Just to be clear....these aren't "forecasts"...these are tools used in part to make a forecast. There's zero human input or meteoritical skill....just computers running simulations.

But that's what I'm looking for. Not the actual "forecast". I don't need to "local fine tuning". I just want to avoid the weather turbulence, not maximizing the outcome of those weather.

This is for non-skiing (say, driving)

 

[fbrissette]

Pivotal is great for the Euro.

Just to be clear....these aren't "forecasts"...these are tools used in part to make a forecast. There's zero human input or meteoritical skill....just computers running simulations. @abc and others your local NOAA station would probably be best if you want map/graphics-based forecasts. They've really stepped up their game in recent years making easy-to-read maps for laypersons. My buddy is a meteorologist and he did a project for NOAA on graphics and what the "average" person wants to see that's easy to interpret and also informative.

For example, even the short-range models that do well when we're 3 days or less from an event will almost always over-do snowfall. Especially with mountains and coastal storms. You need that human input.

Numerical weather forecast are definitely forecasts. Nowadays, in many applications, human input has been greatly reduced to simply analyzing numerical model outputs and picking one based on historical bias in certain conditions. Most of the forecasts you see on the net have zero human inputs into them. Human input is still useful in many cases, but with always improving models, ensemble forecasts (which provide uncertainty estimates) and deep learning techniques, human input will decrease to even lower levels in the future.

 

[jimmywilson69]

The problem is that a lot of the weather models rely on sampling different strat of the atmosphere. Since COVID I know there have been less samplings, completed with weather balloons.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Wow, a 16 day forecast. Of course, days 8-16 are probably complete BS, but still a fun tool. Thanks Kusty.

Anything beyond 5 days is very unreliable. With snowfall, which is what most of us are concerned with, that is especially true (even fewer than 5 days really). At that 8-16 day point, you're looking for storm signals, not taking the graphical depictions you see seriously. Over the last decade I put in a lot of time to learn about meteorology specifically to apply it to skiing, and it was a worthy pursuit. I actually have a poster who used to post here to thank for that for challenging me, and I'm amazed how many times it's helped me with my skiing, booking hotel rooms, nailing storms, skipping days, driving safer, etc... I highly recommend it, and it's easier than ever to learn anything online these days. There are weather websites where genuine experts are happy to share their knowledge with total novices.

 

[FBGM]

Like mentioned above, tropical tidbits GFS is easy to use and free. Judge your isobars and elevation to help with temps.

I have not found a Euro model like that yet. But I haven’t looked to hard. I base a lot of that GFS model run.

 

[fbrissette]

Like mentioned above, tropical tidbits GFS is easy to use and free. Judge your isobars and elevation to help with temps.

I have not found a Euro model like that yet. But I haven’t looked to hard. I base a lot of that GFS model run.

Pivotal weather lets you see precip and temp data from several models (including the ECMWF (euro) for free. Looking at multiple models is extremely useful. When all models converge to a similar 36-hour or less forecast, you know a big one is coming. To emphasize what BG said, 5-day local precipitation forecasts have zero-skill, zero (meaning they are no better then a random guess). Five days ahead, you may know a big dump is coming, but have no indication where it will land. Could be Virginia or Central Quebec. That's why looking at multiple models (or ensemble forecasts - which are probabilistic forecasts from a single model) is very telling.