Peak Resorts: The New ASC?

[steamboat1]

Yeah it's not like they have close to $2m in interest payments alone before they see a cent. Chicken feed.

 

[deadheadskier]

I did say their financials looked scary.......

 

[drjeff]

And yet with all this "arm chair ski area GM'ing" going on here, Peak posted up computer generated renditions of the new base lodge they're putting up to replace the one that burned down last Summer at Mad River Mtn in Ohio today, and yesterday on Mount Snow's GM's blog there's pictures of employees welding sections of new replacement snowmaking pipe to be installed this off season on a few trails.....

I am fully aware of their current cash flow issues, but the grandstanding seeming reports of their imminent demise that some here seem to be inferring might be a touch exaggerated in reality

 

[180]

sure hope so...

 

[steamboat1]

Lets not forget the + 17% dividend they're presently paying on their stock.

 

[Quietman]

Also interesting that as a pass holder from last year, I have not received a single direct attempt to encourage me to re-up this year via email or snail mail. Very bad effort from a marketing point of view.

 

[chuckstah]

Also interesting that as a pass holder from last year, I have not received a single direct attempt to encourage me to re-up this year via email or snail mail. Very bad effort from a marketing point of view.

Very interesting. I haven't had a pass to any Peak resort since Mt Snow and Attitash were part of ASC, where I had a pass, but I'm getting flooded with emails daily to buy the new pass. I think it's working, as I'm leaning toward buying it, and dumping my Boyne pass. If Wildcat was open this coming weekend it would have been a done deal. I planned to purchase the pass at Wildcat Saturday to ski, and then hit SR Sunday for closing day. Now I'm not sure. May renew Boyne as I really like the Oct to May season.

 

[steamboat1]

Also interesting that as a pass holder from last year, I have not received a single direct attempt to encourage me to re-up this year via email or snail mail. Very bad effort from a marketing point of view.

It's advertised on every ski website & for me pops up with google adds everywhere. Doesn't matter, I'm not interested. Already fully paid for my none Peak pass for next season.

 

[Jully]

Also interesting that as a pass holder from last year, I have not received a single direct attempt to encourage me to re-up this year via email or snail mail. Very bad effort from a marketing point of view.

I wonder if that's a glitch that is just impacting you or Crotched pass holders. I bought tickets to Wildcat in the Winter White sale this fall and a Vertical Value card two seasons ago and they received a big snail mail pamphlet on the pass.

 

[Quietman]

I wonder if that's a glitch that is just impacting you or Crotched pass holders. I bought tickets to Wildcat in the Winter White sale this fall and a Vertical Value card two seasons ago and they received a big snail mail pamphlet on the pass.

Not sure, but as I am in the marketing biz, I take notice of these things. I belong in the "low hanging fruit category" and am definitely not an outlier. Interesting that you received a direct up-sell and I didn't even get a renewal attempt. At least they are making some kind of positive efforts before laying off staff for the summer.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I am fully aware of their current cash flow issues, but the grandstanding seeming reports of their imminent demise that some here seem to be inferring might be a touch exaggerated in reality

I dont think there's risk of "imminent demise", but I also dont think it's unreasonable to suggest that this is a very dangerous time for SKIS. Their financials would suggest they're on the edge of a cliff with one foot on a banana peel. They might well safely step back from the edge, but you dont want to be in the situation they're in.

Lets not forget the + 17% dividend they're presently paying on their stock.

That sucker's toast. SKIS will take a decent drop the day they cut that thing.

 

[Bostonian]

I dont think there's risk of "imminent demise", but I also dont think it's unreasonable to suggest that this is a very dangerous time for SKIS. Their financials would suggest they're on the edge of a cliff with one foot on a banana peel. They might well safely step back from the edge, but you dont want to be in the situation they're in.



That sucker's toast. SKIS will take a decent drop the day they cut that thing.

There is no imminent demise, SKIS along with all other resorts big and small are hurting this year. Hopefully with a more normal 2016-2017 ski season and additional skier visit revenue - especially for the Crotch, Wildcat and Attitash - it will balance things out and bounce back. The good news is looking forward according to noaa - here is November, December and January's outlook:

I will take that in a heart beat to help build the base for a better season than this year.

 

[Smellytele]

There is no imminent demise, SKIS along with all other resorts big and small are hurting this year. Hopefully with a more normal 2016-2017 ski season and additional skier visit revenue - especially for the Crotch, Wildcat and Attitash - it will balance things out and bounce back. The good news is looking forward according to noaa - here is November, December and January's outlook:

I will take that in a heart beat to help build the base for a better season than this year.

So it could be good, could be normal, could be bad. I could put out that prediction for 30 years from now. Useless.

 

[Bostonian]

So it could be good, could be normal, could be bad. I could put out that prediction for 30 years from now. Useless.

I would take "normal" and average any day over what we had this past year. let's just hope this past winter was an anomaly rather than the new norm.

 

[VTKilarney]

I would take "normal" and average any day over what we had this past year. let's just hope this past winter was an anomaly rather than the new norm.

Without getting into the climate change debate, I don't think that there is any credible dispute that this past winter was an anomaly. Climate change doesn't happen in one year.

 

[drjeff]

Without getting into the climate change debate, I don't think that there is any credible dispute that this past winter was an anomaly. Climate change doesn't happen in one year.

Exactly!

And while I haven't crunched the numbers myself, I'd guess that if you took the data from the last 2 winters and averaged them together, you'd likely find that the time period of Fall 2014 through Spring 2016 ends up being fairly close to "average" even though both of the last 2 winters were far from "average"

 

[Newpylong]

If we have a good winter all of this will be a distant memory. Mount Snow's EB5 funds will be released and they will start printing money out again along with Hunter.

 

[yeggous]

Exactly!

And while I haven't crunched the numbers myself, I'd guess that if you took the data from the last 2 winters and averaged them together, you'd likely find that the time period of Fall 2014 through Spring 2016 ends up being fairly close to "average" even though both of the last 2 winters were far from "average"

By what metric and where? Last year's temperatures were actually very close to the long term average as far as records go back. It is only relative to the last 30 years that it felt cold.

Snowfall is very, very difficult to measure. No question it was high by any measure on the coastal plain, but was near if now a bit below average in northern interior New England.

This year was blow torch warm and low snow by any measure.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[machski]

If we have a good winter all of this will be a distant memory. Mount Snow's EB5 funds will be released and they will start printing money out again along with Hunter.

Regardless, and this was unfortunate for SKIS, they made a large purchase (Hunter) at the front of an abyssal season. Had they seen this coming, I doubt they would have made that purchase. Hindsight is always 20/20 I know, but ASC's downhill slide came after a similar big purchase push and awful season in the East and Rockies. I hope they do pull through, but their heaviest assets are all in the North East. Better hope VT releases the EB5 (but I wouldn't bet on it. The $$ for West Lake doesn't seem like it will generate the necessary jobs. The will really need to prove it now given the Jay/Burke fiasco to get those $$)

 

[steamboat1]

Didn't Peak finance the majority of the Hunter purchase with a balloon loan with only interest payments due for 20 years?