Peak Resorts: The New ASC?

[Smellytele]

While Crotched does an excellent night skiing business, Crotched has accessibility to major population centers. Greater Manchester/Nashua Metropolitan Area is over 500,000 people, Keene is nearby to the west and it's just over an hour for the northern MA suburbs. One of the largest mistakes of the pre-Peak Resorts Crotched Mountain was their push on real estate both on the East side and West sides. Peak Resorts recognizes that their business is skiing and not real estate development. ASC got into trouble when they stressed the real estate business and forgot (or sublimated) that they were in the skiing business.

Everyone I seem to speak to always has the same complaint about The Crotch - No easy way to get there. Too many back roads. They say it is easier to get to Sunapee or Pats even though they are further North.

 

[Newpylong]

Holy crap, this thing actually made it to market?

Another sure-fire sign that we're near the top. I moved partially to cash a few weeks ago. Don't even care if the market goes up all 2015. Also boosted a levered short position a little bit.

You moved partially to cash? Are you a prepper too?

A sound portfolio doesn't have all eggs in one basket. You have a mix of stock, bonds and cash, growth & income, aggressive and aggressive growth, etc and so on. Market trends are cyclical and if you are smart about your investments you don't need to have a safe full of cash to survive the ruts. That is just wasting investment opportunities.

Back to topic, paying a dividend on such a rocky financial footing and early IPO is ridiculous in my opinion. I don't want Peaks to fail - they have done a lot of positives here.

 

[vermonter44]

The dividend is essentially them paying their executive board , who own around 40% of the shares currently

 

[BenedictGomez]

You moved partially to cash? Are you a prepper too?

A sound portfolio doesn't have all eggs in one basket. You have a mix of stock, bonds and cash, growth & income, aggressive and aggressive growth, etc and so on. Market trends are cyclical and if you are smart about your investments you don't need to have a safe full of cash to survive the ruts. That is just wasting investment opportunities.

No, I'm not a prepper.

But I am someone who used to work professionally in institutional equity investing (that means I dealt with stocks with hedge funds & mutual funds) on one of the largest trade floors on the planet, so I'd like to think I have at least some partial semblance of a clue.

Given you don't understand that investment professionals and well-versed "civilians" move partially to cash occasionally as part of an intentional defensive strategy, and/or keep a partial cash reserve on-hand earmarked for opportunities that pop-up in market declines, then you know far less about investing than you apparently think you do given your above post.

 

[yeggous]

The dividend is essentially them paying their executive board , who one around 40% of the shares currently

Good point.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[BenedictGomez]

The dividend is essentially them paying their executive board

That's certainly the cynical way of looking at things, and a possibility, if you look at their top holders list there are a few people (not many) for whom that would be a decent chunk of cash.

I really think it has more to do with attempting to support the stock though. Your current breakeven on the payout is roughly $7.14 per share, which represents > 20% decline from deal offering. Heck, given the cold winter and expected healthy season, it might not be bad a a short-term trade.

 

[deadheadskier]

ASC got into trouble when they stressed the real estate business and forgot (or sublimated) that they were in the skiing business.

Disagree.

ASC took on massive debt and expanded their skiing product first in hopes of selling real estate second. In comparison to a more successful companies like Vail who did the exact opposite. They sold real estate first and used profits from that to improve skiing infrastructure. Okemo did the same here in the east. They packed their slopes with condos before expanding the ski area. There's not a lot of money to be made in ski resort operations. There's a ton of money to be made in real estate. You focus on the real estate first. ASC didn't do that and went belly up for it. I bet the same happens with Peaks in the long run unless they have some major real estate plays in the works at Mt. Snow and Attitash.

 

[deadheadskier]

Everyone I seem to speak to always has the same complaint about The Crotch - No easy way to get there. Too many back roads. They say it is easier to get to Sunapee or Pats even though they are further North.

Time wise it's the same to get to Crotched from the Manchester area as Pat's. I think people get frustrated because they have to driver slower to do it. Honestly? I prefer the drive to Crotched over Pat's. I enjoy driving through old bucolic New England. Goffstown, New Boston and Francestown are some of the most beautiful communities in the State. The only time I get pissed is when getting stuck behind someone going 35 in a 50 mph zone, which unfortunately happens almost every time I drive to Crotched. :lol:

 

[Smellytele]

Time wise it's the same to get to Crotched from the Manchester area as Pat's. I think people get frustrated because they have to driver slower to do it. Honestly? I prefer the drive to Crotched over Pat's. I enjoy driving through old bucolic New England. Goffstown, New Boston and Francestown are some of the most beautiful communities in the State. The only time I get pissed is when getting stuck behind someone going 35 in a 50 mph zone, which unfortunately happens almost every time I drive to Crotched. :lol:

New Boston and Francestown are fine. Goffstown is a hole.

 

[deadheadskier]

You think so? The part of it that you drive through to get to Crotched is super nice. Nice old Victorian homes. I've only seen that part though.

 

[Newpylong]

No, I'm not a prepper.

But I am someone who used to work professionally in institutional equity investing (that means I dealt with stocks with hedge funds & mutual funds) on one of the largest trade floors on the planet, so I'd like to think I have at least some partial semblance of a clue.

Given you don't understand that investment professionals and well-versed "civilians" move partially to cash occasionally as part of an intentional defensive strategy, and/or keep a partial cash reserve on-hand earmarked for opportunities that pop-up in market declines, then you know far less about investing than you apparently think you do given your above post.

Fair enough, this bitch slap was well deserved.

What floor or fund did you work at? I build the back-end that they use for trading, OMS, CMS, etc.

PS - Smellytele - if you think Goffstown, NH is a hole apparently you haven't needed a shovel often. Nothing wrong with that town at all. I love the drive to Crotched, though I can see why some wouldn't. If you get behind someone slow you're screwed.

 

[Smellytele]

Fair enough, this bitch slap was well deserved.

What floor or fund did you work at? I build the back-end that they use for trading, OMS, CMS, etc.

PS - Smellytele - if you think Goffstown, NH is a hole apparently you haven't needed a shovel often. Nothing wrong with that town at all. I love the drive to Crotched, though I can see why some wouldn't. If you get behind someone slow you're screwed.

I have been living in the area and around southern NH for my whole life and Goffstown is not a very lovely town. Maybe you are used to holes that are deeper...

 

[deadheadskier]

Interesting. I had no idea based upon driving through. Goffstown just isn't on the list of NH town's I've heard people refer to as holes. Manchester, Nashua and Rochester are the NH town names I hear most often in that regard. And though I've jabbed Manchester here, in reality all of those towns are like Beverly Hills in comparison to some other parts of the country. I was out in Flint, MI for business a few weeks ago. I felt like I was in another country.

 

[Smellytele]

Interesting. I had no idea based upon driving through. Goffstown just isn't on the list of NH town's I've heard people refer to as holes. Manchester, Nashua and Rochester are the NH town names I hear most often in that regard. And though I've jabbed Manchester here, in reality all of those towns are like Beverly Hills in comparison to some other parts of the country. I was out in Flint, MI for business a few weeks ago. I felt like I was in another country.

Well those are "cities" and are holes for other reasons. I agree that other cities are worse off (Detroit of instance) but it is all relative to what is around it. driving on 114 through gtown to me is no fun and the "downtown" section after the turn off to the crotch is a little seedy. When compared to the other towns in that area I just don't think gtown is as nice. well maybe better than Weare.

 

[Newpylong]

I'm not from Southern NH nor do I live there but calling a town a shithole on a forum where you have no idea where people are from is a douchebag move.

 

[deadheadskier]

Should I take back my comments on Flint?

 

[BenedictGomez]

I didn't realize New Hampshire had towns that could be classified at poopholes. I'm sure the NH poopholes must be paradise compared to NJ poopholes like Camden and Newark where there's ~2 murders per week though. It's all relevant.

What floor or fund did you work at?

A bulge-bracket investment bank.

 

[MadMadWorld]

Should I take back my comments on Flint?

No one can deny the shit stain that is Flint

 

[steamboat1]

What floor or fund did you work at?

NYSE since 1983, retired 2006. (Specialist). Last 5 years was the market maker for BRK A & B

edit: make that 6, Berkshire Hathaway Class A was the last paper book on the floor.

 

[Smellytele]

I didn't realize New Hampshire had towns that could be classified at poopholes. I'm sure the NH poopholes must be paradise compared to NJ poopholes like Camden and Newark where there's ~2 murders per week though. It's all relevant.
.

No nothing compares with Camden. Oh sorry being elitist again. :evil:

also have you been to Berlin NH