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Perfect Storm possibly brewing...

WinnChill

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We've been keeping an eye on it too. I mentioned to my wife this morning that next week could be very interesting. We'll see.
 

4aprice

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We've been keeping an eye on it too. I mentioned to my wife this morning that next week could be very interesting. We'll see.

WinnChill: How much cold air is behind it if any? Quite the set up if it were all to come together. If we were to stay colder
afterwards could be quite a launch to the ski season. I heard some predictions of a realitively cold November and would love to see a good quick start to the season. Been a while since we had a good pre-christmas.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ
 

Puck it

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I just want to make some turns after I missed out last weekend. The FJ is all ready to go with the equipment in the back. It would be nice to have a repeat of '05 to try the new planks in.
 
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WinnChill

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By "interesting", I mean from a general weather perspective and not so much from a powder perspective. Tropical systems are warm-core systems, and with the core of cold air still holding back through Canada and Northern Plains, this would be a rain event. We could have an open door for this to pull into the coast but determining the track of these tropical systems this far out is futile.

As for the start to the season (November), our chief forecaster's outlook is for slightly below average temps and slightly below average precip for the northeast, as the cold starts to drain in from the northwest. However, adding a tropical system like the potential that we may have next week could delay that slightly. I recall a presentation mentioning that the atmosphere can retain some of the warmth from a tropical system. Just something to consider, but we'll keep watching this one closely.
 

drjeff

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Jamaica, Cuba, The Bahamas and Bermuda will have far more to worry about from Sandy than the East Coast. 1 Model yesterday had Sandy tracking up the Eastern seaboard about a week from now, and this got picked up on. The other dozen or so models had Sandy heading in the general direction of Bermuda once she exits the Bahamas.

The reality is that just like many a computer modeled "perfect storm"/"storm of the century" etc, 1 or 2 outlying model runs about 8 to 10 days out won't have any resemblence 99.9% of the time to what we actually see happen. The only real concern I'd see for most of the East Coast right now would be for those folks going boating in the Atlantic and/or to the beaches up and down the East Coast for some wind, high surf and rip currents
 

4aprice

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Jamaica, Cuba, The Bahamas and Bermuda will have far more to worry about from Sandy than the East Coast. 1 Model yesterday had Sandy tracking up the Eastern seaboard about a week from now, and this got picked up on. The other dozen or so models had Sandy heading in the general direction of Bermuda once she exits the Bahamas.

The reality is that just like many a computer modeled "perfect storm"/"storm of the century" etc, 1 or 2 outlying model runs about 8 to 10 days out won't have any resemblence 99.9% of the time to what we actually see happen. The only real concern I'd see for most of the East Coast right now would be for those folks going boating in the Atlantic and/or to the beaches up and down the East Coast for some wind, high surf and rip currents

I agree with you in many aspects Dr Jeff, but I was reading a post from a pretty respected met on Americanwx and he said that sometimes when a model (and in this case several models) pick up on a big storm like this so far out (we are talking 6 to 10 days) the odds are greater that it could happen as opposed to the flip flopping regular model runs of a more benighen(sp?) pattern. BTW he was talking about the set up with out tropical interaction (ie Sandy out sea) . The 93 superstorm was one that was picked up on the models relatively early. Should be an interesting time to follow the models and see what happens.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ
 

Nick

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WinnChill

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I agree with you in many aspects Dr Jeff, but I was reading a post from a pretty respected met on Americanwx and he said that sometimes when a model (and in this case several models) pick up on a big storm like this so far out (we are talking 6 to 10 days) the odds are greater that it could happen as opposed to the flip flopping regular model runs of a more benighen(sp?) pattern. BTW he was talking about the set up with out tropical interaction (ie Sandy out sea) . The 93 superstorm was one that was picked up on the models relatively early. Should be an interesting time to follow the models and see what happens.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

Plus, we'll be watching for the exiting jet streak out (part of the downstream upper level ridge) over eastern Canada even for an out-to-sea tropical system. Even when models show this jet energy exiting, part of it can actually "capture" the tropical system and sometimes retrograde pulling it back into us. I recall a presentation by a great Boston NWS forecaster, Dave Vallee, showing how the exiting jet energy drawing back a bit, even as most models had this continuing northeastward. I have to dig out my notes from that but it's just one thing to consider. Like Dr. Jeff mentioned (good to see you again by the way!), most Sandy tracks are out-to-sea right now.

It's good to have something like this occupy us until the snow flies..."Occupy White Stuff"! ;-)


-WC
 

JimG.

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I hope this thing blows offshore and misses us.

Sorry, but after the Halloween storm last season and the subsequent poor winter, I have no desire to see any natural snow before November this year. Bad mojo in my book.
 

Nick

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I hope this thing blows offshore and misses us.

Sorry, but after the Halloween storm last season and the subsequent poor winter, I have no desire to see any natural snow before November this year. Bad mojo in my book.

I didn't even get the Oct snow last year, I was in south carolina!!
 

Cannonball

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I just want to make some turns after I missed out last weekend. The FJ is all ready to go with the equipment in the back. It would be nice to have a repeat of '05 to try the new planks in.

Yeah mine are all ready to go to. Oh wait....that's because I'm still procrastinating on putting them away for the summer.
 

Zand

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IDK why you guys are even mentioning snow here. It's a tropical system and sure it'll pull some cold air on the backside (maybe some snow way out in Ohio or West Virginia or something), but here in New England, we would absolutely get the tropical effect if it hit. Right now the EURO has the storm hitting eastern Long Island as about a 940 mb low (bombing out as it hits because it will be extratropical, not a decaying hurricane like Irene), and then sitting and spinning over southern New England/New York. If this scenario holds (obviously it's still 7 days out, so a LOT can happen), the flooding and storm surge would be absolutely catastrophic for the south coast of New England, Long Island, and even inland (more rain than Irene most likely).

As for the other models, some have it out to sea while others agree with the Euro (hell, one just came out as hitting southern Jersey). While the storm track is obviously not something that's anywhere near confident this far out, there's no doubt that we're within the realm of time when the models start agreeing on the general patterns that will be steering the storm this upcoming weekend. We will have a strong low moving through the Great Lakes, causing a trough to dig very deep over the east (subsiquently pulling the storm in off the ocean if it goes slow enough). Also, a VERY strong block will be in place over Greenland. If this was midwinter, we'd all have pants tents over this setup. The devastating part is the chance of the block being so strong, this could take days to move itself along and there is a LOT of potential energy available at these latitudes due to the trough that will be in place. There's no scarier time for these storms to happen than mid-fall when the patterns are how they are. Look no further than the Perfect Storm.

Again, this is still a week out and theres as much of a chance that it will miss as it will hit, but everyone should be paying attention to the developments of this (ESPECIALLY if you are on the coasts of southern NE, Long Island, or the NYC/Jersey shore area). If it verifies as the EURO has been showing for almost 10 consecutive runs now, this would be the storm of the generation.
 

thetrailboss

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And WCAX just put this graphic up from one of their model runs. Yeah, this does not look good:

 
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