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deadheadskier

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Good analysis

Just a reminder to folks that let's not make this political. Not all government talk is, but some feel the need to talk parties and political ideology preferences when government gets brought up.

Don't go there.

thanks



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slatham

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So read an article this morning that 65% of the covid cases in the us (outside of NY) were caused by people traveling from NY.
Also saw that 66% of the new NY hospitalizations are from people saying that had been staying at home. So maybe the stay at home orders are useless. Or maybe just a coincidence as more unhealthy people are staying home.


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The above statements need to be clarified. For the first, this isn't about New Yorkers leaving the state and spreading Covid-19.

"The enormous growth of New York’s outbreak partly reflects its volume of international visitors, especially from Europe, where most of its infections came from."

For the second, the analysis stated that the vast majority were not working. But that does not mean they were "staying at home". If you are home and not in contact with others you will not get it.
 

Smellytele

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The above statements need to be clarified. For the first, this isn't about New Yorkers leaving the state and spreading Covid-19.

"The enormous growth of New York’s outbreak partly reflects its volume of international visitors, especially from Europe, where most of its infections came from."

For the second, the analysis stated that the vast majority were not working. But that does not mean they were "staying at home". If you are home and not in contact with others you will not get it.

I just stated what the article said and only added the opinion that maybe the stay at home mandate may not be working. The article stated 2/3rds of the patients recently hospitalized in NY had been staying home. Actually is was the title of the article. Not 2/3rds were not working. It did say of the 2/3rds only 17% were employed. But it did say the 2/3rds were staying home.

The first article came out said 65% of the cases in the US (outside of NY) were most likely caused by people who traveled from NY.


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slatham

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I just stated what the article said and only added the opinion that maybe the stay at home mandate may not be working. The article stated 2/3rds of the patients recently hospitalized in NY had been staying home. Actually is was the title of the article. Not 2/3rds were not working. It did say of the 2/3rds only 17% were employed. But it did say the 2/3rds were staying home.

The first article came out said 65% of the cases in the US (outside of NY) were most likely caused by people who traveled from NY.


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Agreed, many stories and especially headlines these days need clarification.
 

jimk

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I believe there was a poster on here about a week or two ago that said he was stuck in a condo in Boston throughout the entire lockdown and wished he'd been able to go to his vacation property at a ski resort in VT. But he was staying in place.

How many here are in a similar situation? How many here have been completely or close to completely confined to their home/apartment and have only gone outside for groceries or other essential travel such as medical emergency?

I feel very bad for folks that are in that situation. I don't blame them for staying confined especially if they live in an apartment or condo in an urban hot spot. I know I would have a very hard time dealing with a lockdown that strict. Here in Utah my wife and I been fortunate to be living at my son's single family home with a nice yard and plenty of nearby places for hiking, biking, skinning, and scenic drives. I have been outside pretty much all day, every day doing yard, house work or going for exercise.
 

flakeydog

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Good analysis

Just a reminder to folks that let's not make this political. Not all government talk is, but some feel the need to talk parties and political ideology preferences when government gets brought up.

Don't go there.

thanks



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I was really trying to keep politics out of it. This was intended to look at behavior (and what motivates it) in Sweden versus the US.

We are a free society and it is interesting to look at what some other countries have done. On one end of the spectrum you have had some countries strong-arm their citizens through curfews, tracking, surveillance, etc. Others like Sweden take the hands-off approach. I guess we are somewhere in between.

Obviously dictatorial measures, while possibly effective, are a non-starter here in the US. I will also say that in Sweden, they are seeing a higher death rate than in other countries. At the same time, even though they are still "open", their economy is still taking a hit because people are choosing to isolate even if it is not mandated.

The next big issue will be travel. We are a large country and while small gatherings in a local area may start to come back, introducing people from several different areas and consolidating them in a small area could be problematic. Colleges are really struggling with this because many, if not most, will bring people in from all over. Schools may be fine by fall because they draw just on the local population. If we keep mixing and mixing it could be a while before things settle down. It's like trying to make a drawing on an etch-a-sketch but someone keeps shaking it every 2 minutes.
 

nhskier1969

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"Excellent" job is debatable. What are you basing that claim on? Their death rate is certainly higher than many other countries (including their neighboring countries). Their economic impact isn't expected to be substantially different than other countries in Europe either. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/cor...ntract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html).

So what was so "excellent" about it? Simply the fact that they didn't enact that many restrictions?

As for northern New England states - no I don't think they over-reacted. Had VT, NH, ME not implemented strict restrictions, they would have been flooded with people from NY, MA, CT, NJ, etc that would have brought the virus into those states and put a severe strain on the relatively limited resources they have available.

Would you agree with the death rate is going to peak even higher in the next three weeks? I'd say yes, its because we been inside for over 2 months. If it continues to climb, are they going to shut down the economy for another 3 months, fuck it let's shut down for the entire year. I sorry to say, we need to let it run its course now.
 

BenedictGomez

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Would you agree with the death rate is going to peak even higher in the next three weeks? I'd say yes, its because we been inside for over 2 months.

No. Because testing is greatly ramping.

More testing = more positives.

More positives = larger denominator.

Larger denominator ex increasing lethality = lower death rate.
 

deadheadskier

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I was really trying to keep politics out of it. This was intended to look at behavior (and what motivates it) in Sweden versus the US.

We are a free society and it is interesting to look at what some other countries have done. On one end of the spectrum you have had some countries strong-arm their citizens through curfews, tracking, surveillance, etc. Others like Sweden take the hands-off approach. I guess we are somewhere in between.

Obviously dictatorial measures, while possibly effective, are a non-starter here in the US. I will also say that in Sweden, they are seeing a higher death rate than in other countries. At the same time, even though they are still "open", their economy is still taking a hit because people are choosing to isolate even if it is not mandated.

The next big issue will be travel. We are a large country and while small gatherings in a local area may start to come back, introducing people from several different areas and consolidating them in a small area could be problematic. Colleges are really struggling with this because many, if not most, will bring people in from all over. Schools may be fine by fall because they draw just on the local population. If we keep mixing and mixing it could be a while before things settle down. It's like trying to make a drawing on an etch-a-sketch but someone keeps shaking it every 2 minutes.
No issues with your post at all.



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Sunday Rivah Rat

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No. Because testing is greatly ramping.

More testing = more positives.

More positives = larger denominator.

Larger denominator ex increasing lethality = lower death rate.

I agree. Here in MA they tested 396 people at a large homeless shelter and 148 came up positive. They were all asymptomatic. I believe the death rate will turn out to be a tiny fraction of what was
predicted.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing
 

nhskier1969

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I agree. Here in MA they tested 396 people at a large homeless shelter and 148 came up positive. They were all asymptomatic. I believe the death rate will turn out to be a tiny fraction of what was
predicted.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing

Great article. When this is all said and done, I bet the infected rate for US citizens who show symptoms will be less then 1%
You now if someone like me could figure this out, why couldn't the government. They should have let the economy runs as normal. They should have had shelter in place for people with underlining health conditions an/or people over 70. Image the press then, it would have been non news story. They still can do that. If the US did this, the US would be overrun by asymptotic people.
 

56fish

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That was like 1000 years ago, I doubt that's what he means at this point re: overreacting. States like Vermont have definitely overreacted to the point of absurdity with some things. That state should be well deep into its' opening up process already.

more like 1000 hours ago.

even tho my (and many, many similar small) businesses here draw 70% +/- of income from NY/NNJ Metro, Boston - I'm way comfortable with Scott's handling of situation.
would place my stimulus check that majority Vermonters agree :beer:
 

VTKilarney

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more like 1000 hours ago.

even tho my (and many, many similar small) businesses here draw 70% +/- of income from NY/NNJ Metro, Boston - I'm way comfortable with Scott's handling of situation.
would place my stimulus check that majority Vermonters agree :beer:
This Vermonter doesn’t agree. The entire point of “stay home, stay safe” was to avoid overwhelming the hospitals. My local hospital has had a grand total of 2 Covid-19 patients, neither of whom needed a ventilator. Other hospitals have similar stories. So using the stated goal, Vermont overreacted by a wide margin.
 

icecoast1

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Vermont overreacted by a wide margin.

As did much of the country. The long term effects of this are going to be much worse. How much of a negative effect have we had by shutting down health care facilities and laying off healthcare workers, combined with canceling procedures, doctors appointments, etc? But now the field goal posts are being moved, from "we must flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming the hospital system" which we have already done to "we must stay home til we have a cure or vaccine" something we might never have.
 

BenedictGomez

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Vermont overreacted by a wide margin.

I dont blame them initially, but we're way past "initially" at this point, and we are now armed with much more knowledge & data about this virus, and the restrictions occurring in Vermont are completely over-the-top.

I was very confident there wouldnt be a big problem with COVID19 in Vermont & wrote about that here before the pandemic truly broke, but once that truth actually became apparent workers should have been able to provide & return to work, simply with common sense social distancing & no festivals, carnivals, etc...
 
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icecoast1

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I agree. Here in MA they tested 396 people at a large homeless shelter and 148 came up positive. They were all asymptomatic. I believe the death rate will turn out to be a tiny fraction of what was
predicted.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing

NY antibody tests are indicating approximately 15 percent of the population (in NY) may have been infected but never showed symptoms. The death rate for this will be far lower than what was originally predicted and currently is. And if you take out the shady reporting of covid deaths to inflate the death counts, it would be even lower.
 

nhskier1969

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NY antibody tests are indicating approximately 15 percent of the population (in NY) may have been infected but never showed symptoms. The death rate for this will be far lower than what was originally predicted and currently is. And if you take out the shady reporting of covid deaths to inflate the death counts, it would be even lower.

In 20 years from
now what are we going to remember after this is all said and done.
1. This was very very bad virus.
2. We really F*cked up the economy and allowed the media to get in our heads and overreact.
 

VTKilarney

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As did much of the country. The long term effects of this are going to be much worse. How much of a negative effect have we had by shutting down health care facilities and laying off healthcare workers, combined with canceling procedures, doctors appointments, etc? But now the field goal posts are being moved, from "we must flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming the hospital system" which we have already done to "we must stay home til we have a cure or vaccine" something we might never have.

British Columbia is saying (as of now) that it’s citizens should expect to wait 17 months for elective procedures once the hospitals fully open.
 

VTKilarney

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The dirty secret about the shutdown will be the poverty, hunger, and deaths in developing nations. In other words, the people who used to produce the products that we used to buy.

The United Nations World Food Programme states that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation — double last year’s figures.

This was about saving a few of our lives at the expense of thousands of others.
 
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