Skiing is back!

[p_levert]

There is one death rate which has been remarkable, the death rate relative to the overall population. In NY and NJ, slightly more than 1 of 1000 people have died, which is shocking to me. And some people (including here) have said that NY is a special case because of the extreme density of NYC, but the same thing has happened all over the NE. Here's the death rate comparison:

1. NY 1.4 deaths per 1000 persons
2. NJ 1.0
3. Conn 0.8
4. Mass 0.7

If the whole country achieved 1 in 1000 deaths, and it may happen, we would end up with 330k deaths.

As far as policy goes, a lot depends on whether an effective vaccine or treatment shows up by January 2021 or so. If you believe this to be the case, it would probably make sense to lock things down and save a bunch of lives, like they have done in Washington state. OTOH, if we assume that it will take until late 2021 to get a vaccine, you might as well just lift the lockdown because people will probably end up getting infected anyway.

Personally, I am for lifting the lockdown, but in a very controlled way. Loosen up a little, wait three weeks, then reevaluate.

 

[drjeff]

I was listening to the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast from this past Thursday where he was interviewing Elon Musk and when the conversation went to COVID-19, Elon started talking about his companies experience as they have 7000 employees in China "It's like watching the same movie all over again, except this time its in English not Chinese".... He said he had 7000 employees on his Chinese payroll both before and now "after" in China..... The Chinese economy, based on the roll it plays in global manufacturing is now wide open..... The actual death rates truly only related to COVID-19 are much lower than are being reported..... The financial incentive for hospitals in the US to attribute deaths to COVID-19 are a major skewing factor that has undoubtedly inflated the deaths being attributed to COVID-19 in the US....

 

[p_levert]

I dunno, Musk is not a stupid person, but he has a long history of controversial remarks and impulsivity. A couple of quick comments:

1. His plant is near Shanghai, not Wuhan, so not surprising that nobody died.

2. A huge number of the covid deaths (30-50%) are attributed to nursing homes, prisons, etc. These people are not at all interested in reporting these deaths, they would rather cover up.

3. "financial incentive for hospitals in the US to attribute deaths to COVID-19 are a major skewing factor that has undoubtedly inflated the deaths", here we go again, another conspiracy. The death rates in the US are not dramatically different from the death rates in France, Spain, etc. The health care system is funded in a different way completely in these countries, and yet they end up with a similar number of deaths.

4. And then there's all those people that die at home without ever having a test for CV. These folks are undercounted, not overcounted.

 

[icecoast1]

4. And then there's all those people that die at home without ever having a test for CV. These folks are undercounted, not overcounted.

This is way overhyped. Given the way this disease ends for some people, unable to breath and choking on their own fluid, theres no way people are choosing to lay at home and die like that. And even if this were true, a death like that is now being reported after the fact anyway, this is why thousands of deaths have been added to the total in states like NY

 

[deadheadskier]

The Covid reimbursement rate as a cause for over reporting is continuously talked about. I've read a flat rate of $39k per patient. I've read the same figure only for Medicare patients.

None of what I've read has come from a verified government document.

Can anyone produce that?

I have a hard time believing it because the hospitalization treatments aren't one size fits all. Some patients stay for a matter of days, recover and go home. Some stay for weeks, end up on a ventilator and die.

From my experience, hospital billing is pretty much ala carte. Days in hospital + services provided + medication.

The one absolutely dense comment I keep reading over and over is "follow the money!" It's so asinine. Hospitals are losing money by the truckload because of this. Beth Israel Lahey, the second largest system in New England and the one who has handled the most Covid patients; they lost $280M in the month of March. They want nothing more than to go back to normal operations. So, this false idea that hospitals are somehow profiting from this crisis is the biggest bunch of BS going. Yet, you got the plandemic type folks spreading fake news that the hospitals are benefitting from this.

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[BenedictGomez]

The death rates in the US are not dramatically different from the death rates in France, Spain, etc. The health care system is funded in a different way completely in these countries, and yet they end up with a similar number of deaths.

The death rate in the US is dramatically lower than the death rate in both France & Spain. And that's without even accounting for the fact France & Spain's death count is probably significantly too low given their loose counting of ex hospital setting deaths.

Once again, this poster is all COVID19 doom & gloom, and factually incorrect.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The Covid reimbursement rate as a cause for over reporting is continuously talked about. I've read a flat rate of $39k per patient. I've read the same figure only for Medicare patients.

None of what I've read has come from a verified government document.

IIRC, coding for COVID19 nets you something like $12,500 more than coding for pneumonia and/or the like, so it is significant. That said, this is literally fraud were a hospital to do so in a false manner, so I dont think the effect of that nationwide would be material, as again, it would literally be a crime.

Now what I could see happening is you run the COVID19 blood test as a matter of course as a low cost test, high "reward" diagnosis if it comes up positive.

 

[deadheadskier]

This is way overhyped. Given the way this disease ends for some people, unable to breath and choking on their own fluid, theres no way people are choosing to lay at home and die like that. And even if this were true, a death like that is now being reported after the fact anyway, this is why thousands of deaths have been added to the total in states like NY

They actually have died like that. In NYC EMTs have shown up to plenty of residences to find arrested patients. Those patients get one shot at a defib and some CPR. If it doesn't work, they get DNRd and brought straight to the morgue. That is not normal SOP. Normal is you sustain CPR until the patient gets to the hospital and the hospital calls the death. I know this for an absolute fact. EMTs got so overwhelmed at the height of the curve, they didn't have enough time and manpower for standard SOP.

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[deadheadskier]

IIRC, coding for COVID19 nets you something like $12,500 more than coding for pneumonia and/or the like, so it is significant. That said, this is literally fraud were a hospital to do so in a false manner, so I dont think the effect of that nationwide would be material, as again, it would literally be a crime.

Now what I could see happening is you run the COVID19 blood test as a matter of course as a low cost test, high "reward" diagnosis if it comes up positive.

Where have you read it? Is the source verifiable?

Please share if so.



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[nhskier1969]

There is one death rate which has been remarkable, the death rate relative to the overall population. In NY and NJ, slightly more than 1 of 1000 people have died, which is shocking to me. And some people (including here) have said that NY is a special case because of the extreme density of NYC, but the same thing has happened all over the NE. Here's the death rate comparison:

1. NY 1.4 deaths per 1000 persons
2. NJ 1.0
3. Conn 0.8
4. Mass 0.7

If the whole country achieved 1 in 1000 deaths, and it may happen, we would end up with 330k deaths.

As far as policy goes, a lot depends on whether an effective vaccine or treatment shows up by January 2021 or so. If you believe this to be the case, it would probably make sense to lock things down and save a bunch of lives, like they have done in Washington state. OTOH, if we assume that it will take until late 2021 to get a vaccine, you might as well just lift the lockdown because people will probably end up getting infected anyway.

Personally, I am for lifting the lockdown, but in a very controlled way. Loosen up a little, wait three weeks, then reevaluate.

I disagree with the death rate you are showing. This doesn't include the asymptotic people who weren't tested and the Hospital misreporting. First off there are 30-50 times more people that have it than reported. So you bring that 330k down about 30-50%. Also did you read a couple of post ago about an article from WBUR, they tested all the homeless one day at the Pine Street inn. 36% of them tested positive. Ever case was asymptotic. So again this has probably already spread to 30-50 million people. So what would the death date be then. This also doesn't include the people who are immune.

 

[Not Sure]

IIRC, coding for COVID19 nets you something like $12,500 more than coding for pneumonia and/or the like, so it is significant. That said, this is literally fraud were a hospital to do so in a false manner, so I dont think the effect of that nationwide would be material, as again, it would literally be a crime.

Now what I could see happening is you run the COVID19 blood test as a matter of course as a low cost test, high "reward" diagnosis if it comes up positive.

If that’s the case I would be inclined to look the other way . The Hospital layoffs ( permanent) are just starting, cant elaborate too much but I know someone who’s department just shed 15 out of 70 fte positions. They aren’t direct patient care but important none the less .

 

[Former Sunday Rivah Rat]

The dirty secret about the shutdown will be the poverty, hunger, and deaths in developing nations. In other words, the people who used to produce the products that we used to buy.

The United Nations World Food Programme states that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation — double last year’s figures.

This was about saving a few of our lives at the expense of thousands of others.

Let's see the "Lockdown Social Justice Warriors" rationalize starving tens of millions of people to death.
They could not be that stupid, this was predictable. There is evil intent at work.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/cor...ines-could-double-global-hunger-un-warns.html

 

[Smellytele]

I disagree with the death rate you are showing. This doesn't include the asymptotic people who weren't tested and the Hospital misreporting. First off there are 30-50 times more people that have it than reported. So you bring that 330k down about 30-50%. Also did you read a couple of post ago about an article from WBUR, they tested all the homeless one day at the Pine Street inn. 36% of them tested positive. Ever case was asymptotic. So again this has probably already spread to 30-50 million people. So what would the death date be then. This also doesn't include the people who are immune.

The death rates he is showing is 1 out of 1000 NY residents not 1 out of 1000 people who have tested positive for covid.


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[BenedictGomez]

Where have you read it? Is the source verifiable?

Please share if so.

Straight from the gubment CARES plan.

https://www.aha.org/advisory/2020-0...es-guidance-implementing-cares-act-provisions

 

[p_levert]

The death rate relative to the overall population is really the only health statistic that matters. Here's an expanded list of what I posted earlier:

NY 1.38 deaths per 1000 persons in general population
NJ 1.03
Conn 0.82
Mass 0.70
Louisiana 0.49
Michigan 0.45
Illinois 0.26
Washington state 0.12
Florida 0.08
California 0.07
Texas 0.04

Lots of deaths in the NE corridor and also spreading over to Illinois. Not so much in the south and west. I do think TX, FL and CA dodge the bullet for now, due to a climate advantage. But watch out for next fall.

Here's a comparison of the US vs. other countries:

Belgium 0.75
Spain 0.57
Italy 0.50
UK 0.47
France 0.40
Sweden 0.32
USA 0.24
Germany 0.09
Denmark 0.09
Finland 0.05
Norway 0.04

So our death rate is already half of the death rate for Italy. And, of course, Italy got started several weeks before us and is now well past the peak. Also, the health care system in Italy got seriously overwhelmed.

 

[p_levert]

FYI, all death rate data from www.worldometers.info/coronavirus . Great site!

 

[BenedictGomez]

FYI, all death rate data from www.worldometers.info/coronavirus . Great site!

Yeah; too bad you didnt find it before posting that nonsense yesterday about America's death rate not being much different from France & Spain.

 

[Zermatt]

The death rate relative to the overall population is really the only health statistic that matters. Here's an expanded list of what I posted earlier:

NY 1.38 deaths per 1000 persons in general population
NJ 1.03
Conn 0.82
Mass 0.70
Louisiana 0.49
Michigan 0.45
Illinois 0.26
Washington state 0.12
Florida 0.08
California 0.07
Texas 0.04

Lots of deaths in the NE corridor and also spreading over to Illinois. Not so much in the south and west. I do think TX, FL and CA dodge the bullet for now, due to a climate advantage. But watch out for next fall.

Here's a comparison of the US vs. other countries:

Belgium 0.75
Spain 0.57
Italy 0.50
UK 0.47
France 0.40
Sweden 0.32
USA 0.24
Germany 0.09
Denmark 0.09
Finland 0.05
Norway 0.04

So our death rate is already half of the death rate for Italy. And, of course, Italy got started several weeks before us and is now well past the peak. Also, the health care system in Italy got seriously overwhelmed.

People need to start getting really insensitive and telling it like it is, then everyone can judge their personal risk.

Remove nursing home fatalities (account for 50% of deaths in CT, yet only make up about 25,000 people in a state of 3.6m).

Remove deaths over whatever age group you like (you decide). I choose the 80+ age group. Close to 60% of deaths in CT are coming from this group that make up 3% of the population

Remove deaths for severely obese people, cancer patients on chemo with no immune system.

Then, figure out what the damn denominator really is and we can start moving forward.

 

[dblskifanatic]

People need to start getting really insensitive and telling it like it is, then everyone can judge their personal risk.

Remove nursing home fatalities (account for 50% of deaths in CT, yet only make up about 25,000 people in a state of 3.6m).

Remove deaths over whatever age group you like (you decide). I choose the 80+ age group. Close to 60% of deaths in CT are coming from this group that make up 3% of the population

Remove deaths for severely obese people, cancer patients on chemo with no immune system.

Then, figure out what the damn denominator really is and we can start moving forward.

I agree! I also feel like people should be left to their own decisions. If restaurants open, I know people that will go including my family but I also know people that will remain in this state of isolation on their own for quite some time out of fear. We have been hiking, golfing kayaking mountain biking, paddle boarding and visiting points of interest. We also shop and order out. We ran into lots of people that are starting to take things into their own hands! Three restaurants opened here in Colorado defying state orders.

There will be a new state of paranoia / germa phobes. Yesterday we saw people mountain biking with masks on. We also say people out on the water with masks on - I don’t get it!

There are people I know that never return to normal because they do not want their kids to get sick or make their aging parents sick or they have their own underlying conditions.

While some states start to open things up, there are many that are starting panic.


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[JimG.]

There will be a new state of paranoia / germa phobes. Yesterday we saw people mountain biking with masks on. We also say people out on the water with masks on - I don’t get it!

There are people I know that never return to normal because they do not want their kids to get sick or make their aging parents sick or they have their own underlying conditions.

While some states start to open things up, there are many that are starting panic.

I wear a mask when out in public to run errands or shop, but only to avoid the damning stares of the coronavirus lockdown police. Those people are everywhere it seems.

I draw the line on wearing a mask doing things like going fishing, hiking, skiing, etc.

I think we are at the point where those who are at risk need to isolate while everyone else gets back to a "normal" life.