Summer Arctic Ice

[Cannonball]

It's about the science and understanding.

Which you clearly have neither of.

Have a good weekend dude. Hopefully whatever you are doing for fun is more in your wheel house than this discussion.

 

[jack97]

Which you clearly have neither of.

Have a good weekend dude. Hopefully whatever you are doing for fun is more in your wheel house than this discussion.

I'm having lots of fun, I'm still chuckling over how you completely missed the message Dr. Christy gave in his interview about climate science and the polar bears.

 

[dlague]

My 2 cents there always is a lot of volcanic activity under water! A times more than other times! When many of the island chains were created activity was massive. Obviously still happening! If non oceanic volcanic activity produced co2 at levels higher than humans is it possible under water activity does the same?

Not debating it really just throwing that out there!


i typed with my i thumbs using AlpineZone

 

[jack97]

My 2 cents there always is a lot of volcanic activity under water! A times more than other times! When many of the island chains were created activity was massive. Obviously still happening! If non oceanic volcanic activity produced co2 at levels higher than humans is it possible under water activity does the same?

Could be, in general a lot of the ocean's influences are hypotheses and more monitoring will support them or not. Some scientist believes there are even ocean cycles beyond a millennium. The point is, it's need to be understood. The science isn't settled when data does not support a hypothesis.

Not debating it really just throwing that out there!

exactly! it should be about debating, not derogatory and snide remarks. Linzden has retired from MIT, he's been working in this field since 1964 and has seen it all, more so than Bengtsson, the later who resigned due to the politicization within this field. Linzden now works for CATO, a republican think tank, he has been asked to study the progress of science in general. From his remarks, back then contrarian views were not blacked ball out as long as it had merit and it was ok to bring in ideas..... could turn out to be wrong or right. Unfortunately that has changed.

 

[jack97]

Prediction for the summer arctic sea ice extent is still on track to be larger than normal (what ever the new normal is). Here's the recent plot of Nothern Hem sea ice anomaly. If this holds, we may be at the start of the cold period, or what Bastardi thinks as the AMO transitioning in. We may be in line for another cold winter.

 

[jack97]

Another interesting tidbit about the arctic ice.... this spring, polar bears were struggling to eat because there's too much ice. just as Christy and other true scientist surmise. I say surmise b/c there's not enough data to track them.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/bar...-polar-bears-threatened-too-much-spring-ice-0



oh my.... we have to stop global warming because its causing too much ice and making the polar bears awfully skinny.

 

[Cannonball]

Prediction for the summer arctic sea ice extent is still on track to be larger than normal (what ever the new normal is). Here's the recent plot of Nothern Hem sea ice anomaly. If this holds, we may be at the start of the cold period, or what Bastardi thinks as the AMO transitioning in. We may be in line for another cold winter.


View attachment 12709

Are you for real? As anyone can see by looking at the chart you posted: It is on track to be well below average (though not as below average as it has been recently). This is about as basic as it gets. You are either misreading or misleading. I hope it's the first but suspect it's the second.

 

[jack97]

Are you for real? As anyone can see by looking at the chart you posted: It is on track to be well below average (though not as below average as it has been recently). This is about as basic as it gets. You are either misreading or misleading. I hope it's the first but suspect it's the second.

haha... you caught me cannonbull. I did that just for you & fbrissettes, i did mention the "new normal". Anyways, the chart shows a slow down on the ice melt.

great for us skiers and riders.... maybe not so much for those damn sensitive polar bears.

 

[jack97]

a lot of volcanic activity under water! A times more than other times!

Cool gif below of the sea surface temps, some of those warm temps seem to originate from known fault areas. btw, that vortex which showed up between south american and Africa is right on top of a fault line.

 

[Cannonball]

haha... you caught me cannonbull. I did that just for you & fbrissettes, i did mention the "new normal".

Ugh, so I was right. You were being intentionally misleading instead of innocently misreading. That's pretty scary. Malevolence is a whole lot worse than ignorance as a character trait. Unfortunately it's consistent with the propaganda you've been posting and it's original sources. You're just a little more transparent about it.

 

[jack97]

Ugh, so I was right. You were being intentionally misleading instead of innocently misreading. That's pretty scary. Malevolence is a whole lot worse than ignorance as a character trait. Unfortunately it's consistent with the propaganda you've been posting and it's original sources. You're just a little more transparent about it.

hmm.... seems kind of arrogant to pass judgement on others but that's the nature of the beast.


Here's the "normal" I was talking about, the trend line the AGW folks have been using for their "alarmist" theme. The latest prediction would be above this line.

BTW, where or what is the propaganda? I posted charts from NOAA, blogs from Epstien/Bastardi and oceans as co2 sources. The later you said were ok.

 

[dlague]

Well I plead a certain level of ignorance but do not buy into the Global Warming hysteria.


i typed with my i thumbs using AlpineZone

 

[BenedictGomez]

Are you for real? As anyone can see by looking at the chart you posted: It is on track to be well below average (though not as below average as it has been recently). This is about as basic as it gets. You are either misreading or misleading. I hope it's the first but suspect it's the second.

Truthfully, what's "as basic as it gets" is to probably not revamp entire economies and impose incredibly disruptive laws that will negatively impact GDP and impose restrictions on human behavior by trumpeting a data set that is younger than Ashton Kutcher.

This is the most ridiculous part of the "sea ice battle", regardless of which side wields it. The 'Ns' is this debate are so low it's completely moronic.

This whole "debate" started because the Global Warming alarmists wanted to scare people by screaming, "LOWEST ICE ON RECORD!!!!!", but of course while screaming so in the media they NEVER inform the reader/viewer that the data literally only goes back to 1979. They don't want you to know that little, rather crucial, tid-bit.

Well......live by the hysteria, die by the hysteria. Because now the "skeptics" (I friggin' hate that term) are seizing upon the, "MOST ICE ON RECORD!!!!" for the antarctic.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The other 10,000lb elephant in the closet is that, while yes, the flat-lining to increasing ice in the diagram is still a negative regression line when considered en toto, the static ice to increasing sea ice represents almost a DECADE of data.

This should NOT be occurring according to the Global Warming hypothesis in light of dramatically increasing CO2 thats rise is BEYOND even the Global Warming scientists dire predictions.

It's just another wrong AGM prediction from the "there is no debate" about the science, crowd.

 

[fbrissette]

hmm.... seems kind of arrogant to pass judgement on others but that's the nature of the beast.


Here's the "normal" I was talking about, the trend line the AGW folks have been using for their "alarmist" theme. The latest prediction would be above this line.

I am not following you. In your search of a global conspiracy, don't you realize that your two graphs are of the same data. The first one shows monthly sea ice extent anomaly, while the one above only shows data for the month of September (minimum extent). The latter is a subset of the first one which clearly shows (you can also see it on the first one) that although there appears to be a plateau in the former, the minimum sea ice extent (september) is still on a steep decrease. It does not even show 2012 which was an all time low.

And you CANNOT PREDICT today, where September 2014 will be on this graph. Seasonal forecasts do NOT work, even in the Arctic (unless you define 'work' as barely better than random).

 

[jack97]

I am not following you. In your search of a global conspiracy, don't you realize that your two graphs are of the same data. The first one shows monthly sea ice extent anomaly, while the one above only shows data for the month of September (minimum extent). The latter is a subset of the first one which clearly shows (you can also see it on the first one) that although there appears to be a plateau in the former, the minimum sea ice extent (september) is still on a steep decrease. It does not even show 2012 which was an all time low.

Had to do that for you other alarmist bud, the last one had the trend line and as I said.....its the new normal what ever that may be.

And you CANNOT PREDICT today, where September 2014 will be on this graph. Seasonal forecasts do NOT work, even in the Arctic (unless you define 'work' as barely better than random).

And b/c I am generous with my time as well (lol that reeks with so much arrogance) , NOAA has been forecasting using a new model. And if you want to play word games... its different from the GCM models that IPCC used in all alarmist report.

 

[fbrissette]

This should NOT be occurring according to the Global Warming hypothesis in light of dramatically increasing CO2 thats rise is BEYOND even the Global Warming scientists dire predictions.

Wrong.

It's just another wrong AGM prediction from the "there is no debate" about the science, crowd.

Wrong again. If you cared to read the literature you would see that there are tons of debates going on, i.e.:

- failure of RCMs to fulfill their potential over GCM;
- reasons explaining the pateau in temperatures;
- sources and sinks of CO2;
- impact of warming on plants and animals;
- global and regional uncertainties;
- role of natural variability;
- stationarity of GCM postprocessing techniques for impact studies:
- etc... you could fill a few pages easily.

And I am talking about real debates between scientists in journal papers (the very same people supposedly part of a global conspiracy to defraud the people)

However, despite all of the above, when considering the entire body of evidence, there is no debate about the global picture which is that the earth is warming and that we are the main cause.

 

[fbrissette]

NOAA has been forecasting using a new model. And if you want to play word games... its different from the GCM models that IPCC used in all alarmist report.

Let me repeat myself: Seasonal forecasts DO NOT WORK at the present time. Don't be fooled by the fact that all agencies do it nonetheless (there are justifications for the exercise however, but not operational at this point).

Seasonal forecasts can be shown to be statistically better (but barely) than climatology for a few areas where weather is linked to strong ocean circulation indices. The Arctic is not one of those regions.

 

[jack97]

Wrong.




Wrong again. If you cared to read the literature you would see that there are tons of debates going on, i.e.:

- failure of RCMs to fulfill their potential over GCM;
- reasons explaining the pateau in temperatures;
- sources and sinks of CO2;
- impact of warming on plants and animals;
- global and regional uncertainties;
- role of natural variability;
- stationarity of GCM postprocessing techniques for impact studies:
- etc... you could fill a few pages easily.

And I am talking about real debates between scientists in journal papers (the very same people supposedly part of a global conspiracy to defraud the people)

However, despite all of the above, when considering the entire body of evidence, there is no debate about the global picture which is that the earth is warming and that we are the main cause.

where did all that warming go for the past 18 years? did the ocean flip that switch and turn into sinks? Or is it hiding in the deep ocean waiting to come up. Sounds like pseudo science or stuff you see in the sci fi channel.

 

[fbrissette]

Truthfully, what's "as basic as it gets" is to probably not revamp entire economies and impose incredibly disruptive laws that will negatively impact GDP and impose restrictions on human behavior

While some climate change alarmists (Al Gore for example), go way overboard with potential impacts, you are guilty of the same hyperbole with respect to what it would mean to face the problem in a rational way.