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The 01/22 - 01/23 Storm thread (Could a snowstorm actully hit the Poconos?)

BenedictGomez

BenedictGomez

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18z GFS ensemble way worse than 18z GFS. Crushes Pocono skiers hopes and dreams. I left both depictions up. It's pretty much the same as the prior run, but the qpf doesnt expand northward. Lets hope that's not the solution.
 
Tin

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BenedictGomez said:
18z GFS ensemble way worse than 18z GFS. Crushes Pocono skiers hopes and dreams. I left both depictions up. It's pretty much the same as the prior run, but the qpf doesnt expand northward. Lets hope that's not the solution.
Click to expand...

Don't even bother posting or discussing it anymore. I think it has shown how useless and all over the place it can be. Time to get into RGEM, NAM (yes, I said it. Was good with last weekend within 72 hours), and others. It needs another million dollar tune up.


I'm just going to look at models that favor us. That way I have a reason to drink more this weekend...
P1_GZ_D5_PN_078_0000.gif
 
BenedictGomez

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Tin said:
Don't even bother posting or discussing it anymore. I think it has shown how useless and all over the place it can be. Time to get into RGEM, NAM (yes, I said it. Was good with last weekend within 72 hours), and others. It needs another million dollar tune up.
Click to expand...

The Canuck has been the most stubborn with this storm, even the Euro has flip-flopped a bit, but they all have the same general idea in that n.VA and MD get absolutely crushed, and s.PA and s.NJ get a decent snow. Where it gets hairy is the super sharp cutoff of snow once you get above c.NJ, which obviously isn't good for the Pocono chain. Just a slight northern shift, and places like Blue and Shawnee could get a heavy amount. Fingers crossed.

The NWS is sending up balloons right now, which as you probably know they only do in "special" situations, so the 00z GFS theoretically should have better than normal data tonight.

As for the "another million dollar tuneup" - they just spent millions more on it recently. :x
 
BenedictGomez

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00z NAM just went WAY, WAY north, made the jackpot zone WAY, WAY bigger, and is a snowlovers wet dream.

Sadly it's the NAM, but still, this this is some dirty snow porn to feast your eyes on. Looks like roughly 22" in the Poconos I'd guess?

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NECONUS_hr084.png
 
BenedictGomez

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deadheadskier said:
So it sounds like you're still very confident Lucy won't pull the football
Click to expand...

Sadly, it's the NAM, so clown-shoes snow amounts are expected. The important thing IMO, is that it's sensing a northern shift. The Poconos desperately needs that northern shift to not get screwed. We should know more about the football after tonight's model runs.
 
ss20

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A minute from the Alta exit off the I-15!
Ever so slight tick north on the 0Z GFS. Brings snow perhaps 10 miles more north?

Virginia and Maryland will be shutdown for the weekend. Anyone know where to put Maryland's entire annual snowfall, but in a 72 hour period?
 
Tin

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GFS has come further north. All 0z models have ticked north thus far. Best we could have hoped for is the start of the north trend.
:beer:
 
BenedictGomez

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Rowsdower said:
Blue Mountain, then?
Click to expand...

The 00z GFS brings the NAM back to reality (as you'd expect), prints more like 6" or 7" throughout the Pokes. Still DANGEROUSLY close to the "screwed" line though. Really this GFS isnt that much different from the last few.

EDIT: Canuck is running now.
 
Tin

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BenedictGomez said:
Really this GFS isnt that much different from the last few.

EDIT: Canuck is running now.
Click to expand...

It follows the others in coming north though along with the western system being weaker and hitting, not busting, the ridge in the west. Just a few miles at a time for New England, it would also spare Jersey from absolute surge horror again.
 
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BenedictGomez

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Tin said:
It follows the others in coming north
Click to expand...

Canuck isnt done, but it's going to come north too.

Somewhat NAM-like, but without the clown-shoes snow totals. Also puts the Poconos dancing on a fault-line between getting about 9" or getting about 2".
 
BenedictGomez

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Similar deal with the CMC.

You go from a nice 18" in Easton, PA to about 5" at Shawnee and Camelback, even thought that's probably only about 20 or so miles as the crow flies!
 
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I still don't understand why we are discussing a mid-Atlantic storm on a northeast forum.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app
 
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