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The 01/22 - 01/23 Storm thread (Could a snowstorm actully hit the Poconos?)

BenedictGomez

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18z GFS looks much, much, much better than it's last 3 or 4 runs!

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BenedictGomez

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Good news too, the GFS ensemble (below) looked as good as the GFS, so the op run wasn't an outlier. I'll be at Blue Mountain on Sunday if this verifies, probably 10" or 11" per model.

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NECONUS_hr066.png
 

deadheadskier

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So, who from the Philly area is positioning themselves down by Wintergreen or Massanutten? There's a fair amount of forum members from the area.

I want to see reports of you folks taking advantage of this potentially historic storm.
 

BenedictGomez

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NAM run that's finishing shifts way north yet again. Good news. Cant wait to see the 00z GFS and 00z Canuck now. Things have taken a dramatic turn for the better in the last 5 hours.
 

ScottySkis

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I be at Platty Sunday snow storm not I need Platty in my blood this winter.

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WoodCore

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Giddy up!!!!!

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BenedictGomez

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Still...it's the nam.

Tonight's NAM run had 7 dropsondes released into it, so theoretically it should be more accurate. And it's not just the 00z NAM that came north, the 18z GFS came north and so too have the last several SREF runs. Hopefully it's a trend.
 

jimk

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So, who from the Philly area is positioning themselves down by Wintergreen or Massanutten? There's a fair amount of forum members from the area.

I want to see reports of you folks taking advantage of this potentially historic storm.

I am currently at Canaan Valley Lodge, WV. They got about 4" last night. Calling for 4-8' tomorrow afternoon and 11-17" more Fri night into Saturday. I'll post some photos when it gets good. I'm scheduled to head home to DC area on Sunday afternoon unless the roads are closed. Bring it on, just don't kill the power lines to the chair lifts! :)
 

BenedictGomez

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After favorable GFS, SREF, and NAM runs, the RGEM does completely the opposite direction. lol. Granted there's about 7 hours of "missing" nowfall here over PA/NJ, but it probably wouldnt get the Pokes above 7".

F6RyZXa.png
 

BenedictGomez

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And the 00z GFS crushes hopes and dreams, awful run. I sure wouldn't want to be a met and have to forecast this for Philly or NYC.

EDIT: These are two American 00z models, both showing absurdly different solutions.


snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NECONUS_hr060.png

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BenedictGomez

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Regardless I still think Blue will be the best bet.

If the storm does hit, no doubt Blue Mountain is the clear winner.

If the storm doesn't hit, hunting in the morning and then watching the AFC Championship is the best bet.

EDIT: GFS & Canadian ensembles look a bit better than op, but nothing terribly sexy. Blue might get 6" or 7" if it verified.
 
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BenedictGomez

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Gradients modeled are crazy. Cherry Hill, NJ on the 06z GFS is 2 FEET of snow, but 70 miles north as the crow flies is a dusting. This is a nowcasting situation where you just hope in comes north to get lucky.
 
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