The Official 10/28 - 10/29 Storm Discussion Thread

[nelsapbm]

Powderfreak (did I get that right? ).....whats your take??
National Weather Service and WCAX are both calling for "significant" snows in Northern VT/NY (how about NH/ME?) starting tomorrow afternoon and overnight into Wednesday. Have not seen mentions of totals yet, other than that the valleys are expected to see snow too.

 

[nelsapbm]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=BTVHWOBTV&version=0

 

[JPTracker]

Here is Jays Forecast

Accumulating amounts are still in question but we at looking at the best shot of late October snow so far and skiable snow on the mountain.

The jet stream buckling with deepening trough of lower pressure and much colder air aloft and at the surface was taking place across the Great Lakes. In response, a warmer train of air across western Atlantic was organizing. This train of air will begin to gather plenty of moisture as it presses northward Tuesday pushing in rain.

Low pressure should track northward and a bit northwestward toward the Maine NH border region and eventually near Sherbrook Quebec while intensifying. The intensification process will lower the snow level but the arrival of colder air may wait until Tuesday evening. At that point the best moisture fields will have moved north into Canada.

So the WRAP-BACKLASH of moisture coupled with sharply falling temperatures are likely to be the main influence with UP-SLOPING snows on Jay Peak.

Right now I’m going for 4” to 8” with the up-slope event. ***If the snow level lowers faster and colder air arrives earlier , we might see better than 10 inches on the mountain just slightly above base lodge level, but this remains to be seen just yet. The snow is likely to be very wet and heavy in nature, sticking to trees and signs and power lines. This also poses possible power outages with winds gusting 40 to 50 mph from the west and northwest.

Wednesday could out to be a ski day with frequent up sloping snow showers across Jay Peak. Enter lake effect plumes coming off Lake Huron and there might be some enhancement to keep accumulating snows going into early Thursday.

 

[powderfreak]

We are a day out and most model guidance is in favor of a major
autumnal Nor'easter that will bring significant heavy wet snow to the North
Country on Tuesday night. An anomalous upper level trough will turn
negative as it swings through the Ohio Valley, exciting surface low pressure
development just off the eastern coastline. This low will deepen rapidly in
response to fantastic upper level divergence along the northeastern
coastline. The low will track over extreme eastern New England (BOS) before
getting pulled NNW into southern Quebec as a vertically stacked bomb. The
NAM is the only model that tracks this up the Hudson River Valley (game over
for VT if that happens). I'm discounting this far of a westward track but
if it happens, the Adirondacks take the brunt, not VT. Right now the
GFS/UKMET/CMC/ECMWF are further east, with it coming ashore between Boston
and Portland. This is "Green Mountain Crusher" material (hvy wet snow +
high winds)...I see BTV has mentioned potential tree damage in their AFD
this morning, I think there would likely be some power outages with this
storm.

Liquid equiv totals across northern Vermont will be in excess of 1" with the
western slopes of the northern Greens and Adirondacks potentially seeing up
to 2.5". This is in line with HPC grids and a NAM/GFS blend. Now that both
American models show a very similar solution, I will assume earlier model
differences have been cleared up. The H85 0C line runs north south through
VT before getting sucked up to the NE as the low passes us...so we'll start
as rain and transition to snow.

Timeline.
Rain showers will break out across the area tomorrow morning well in advance
of the actual storm. Rain could become heavy at times for a period tomorrow
afternoon before changing to heavy wet snow at the higher elevations
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Tomorrow evening after sun-down, heavy wet snow
is expected to mix all the way to the valley floor.

Tuesday night will be snow, heavy at times, in all areas of central and
northern Vermont, as well as the eastern Adirondacks. It will also become
very windy as the core of the low level gradient moves through our area.
Winds will start ripping out of the NNW as the storm wraps up. Model track
wants to set-up heaviest deformation band along the western slopes of the
Greens and the Champlain Valley. There is still some time for them to move
this further east or west, but this cold conveyor belt on the backside will
be where the heaviest snowfall ends up. Synoptic snowfall tapers off as
snow showers by Wednesday morning.

Upslope?
Wednesday will see a continuation of snowfall in the upslope areas. If this
does pan out as a closed, vertically stacked low in southern Quebec, we will
have a strong, moist NW flow ripping into the upslope regions for an
extended period of time. I believe Wednesday will see continued appreciable
snowfall along the northern/central Green Mtn upslope regions. This would
also apply to the northern slopes of the Adirondacks. Whether or not we get
additional significant snowfall on Wednesday will depend on just where this
thing slows down in Quebec.

Snowfall.
This morning I've looked at enough guidance that suggests the potential for
8-14" across the higher terrain (above 2,000ft)...4-8" between 1-2K...and
2-4" of 20% density snow in the Champlain Valley.

This is subject to change, naturally, and I'll have final amounts out
tonight. I've got to work till 8 but should have final details out later.
Whatever happens, either the Adirondacks or Green Mountains will receive
heavy snow as there is high confidence in a storm, but only mediocre
confidence in track. 25-50 mile track fluctuations makes a big difference
in early season marginal events.

Get the boards ready.
-Scott

ps: Here's BTV's call to action this morning:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AND BE OVER CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...
BUT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH VALLEY LOCATIONS
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS
OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO PROVIDE SNOWFALL REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON.

 

[Greg]

Sweet! If it pans out, who's making turns?

 

[2knees]

so if this comes to fruition for stowe, can we expect the first of your seasonal trip reports? which are always fascinating, btw.

 

[campgottagopee]

so if this comes to fruition for stowe, can we expect the first of your seasonal trip reports? which are always fascinating, btw.

+1

 

[bvibert]

so if this comes to fruition for stowe, can we expect the first of your seasonal trip reports? which are always fascinating, btw.

+1

x2

 

[Johnskiismore]

I'll head west from my location!

 

[Zand]

Central MA forecast:

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THICKNESSES/TEMPS WILL CRASH PRETTY GOOD BY
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW REALLY STARTS TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF DYNAMIC
COOLING...BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND HOW ROBUST ANY
COMMA HEAD PRECIP SHIELD IS...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE IN THE
BERKS...MONADNOCKS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A PORTION OF THE WORCESTER
HILLS LATE TUE AFTN/EVE. AT THIS TIME...WE/RE NOT QUITE SURE...IT MAY
END UP BEING A FEW WET FLAKES AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...OR SEVERAL
INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW. WE WILL NEED A BIT MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY
BEFORE WE KNOW THESE DETAILS. AGAIN...THIS IS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR...NOT THE COAST.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT WINTER STORM
WATCHES/WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A SMALL PORTION
OF THE FAR INTERIOR FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Accuweather is saying up to three inches of snow for Mount Pocono..so even if we don't get any snow here in the Lehigh Valley..I might have to drive up to the nos to see some October snow..

 

[bigbog]

....sweet...

Wouldn't this be sweet!
Am all tuned/waxed up, but except for the Round_Tin_Can_$26 days and any Freebees, have ta' sell my OC-1(Taureau) first!...:angry:
...Have to find out what Boyne's policy for early skinning/climbing>descent @Sugarloaf is!

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

From Accuweather..

Monday 1:10 PM update

As of this writing, there is a thickening band of cloudiness stretching from western and central Virgiinia on northeastward though east-central Pennsylvania to eastern New York and western New England. It is pretty clear now that the storm that will take shape tonight will take place along this frontal band. As the storm develops, rain will break out. In Philadlephia for the baseball game this evening, it is possible that rain is underway at game time. The numerical models show most of it from the middle of the night on, but people going to the game should certainly have rainwear with them. As the storm develops more later toniht and tomorrow morning, the western side of the precipitation zone may experience heavy wet snow. Taken literallly, this morning's NMM-WRF model dumps a foot of snow from the Poconos into the Catskills! The GFS is a little warmer and a little less moist, but there would still be accumulating snow in the higher elevations. Finally, as the flow aloft backs around to become more southerly, the storm center could pass west of Boston and Portland. This would probably mean that virtually all of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, most of Maine and perhaps even Vermont would get rain. However, as the storm goes by, there could be a last minute change to snow in the mouintains and perhaps flurries could occur down to coast tomorrow night. The Adirondacks would get a lot of snow out of this scenario.


The Poconos could get dumped on and Vermont might get rain...I love watching a good winter storm develop!!!!!.....especially in October..a couple inches of heavy wet snowfall on trees that still have foliage could mean lots of downed trees and powerlines..be sure to practice Smartstyle..

 

[Johnskiismore]

I am having so much fun telling people about the developing storm! Even though we probably get much in my neck of the woods, it's fun to watch their reaction! Not a happy face like:

 

[andrec10]

Winter Storm Watch!

... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS... THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS... AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 16 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 MPH. THESE WINDS... ALONG WITH THE SNOW... WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION... THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

 

[skiing is life]

supposed to snow mixed with rain on tuesday night here.

 

[awf170]

Sweet! If it pans out, who's making turns?

Yep, on Thursday where ever the most snow falls.

 

[riverc0il]

Scott... any thoughts on snow fall estimates for the Whites? Or is this a Dacks/Greens event specifically?

 

[hardline]

i dont think we are going to get squat in the jerz even the north in sussex. no way to do vt because i have two openings this week and have to get ready for the holloween blowout on friday.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

37 degrees and light rain at Mount Pocono..it's getting closer..tomorrow might be the first day of the season I'm bringing my skis with me to work..I might have to visit a client up in Scranton...