The Official 3/18 - 3/21 Storm Discussion Thread

[kingdom-tele]

Riv-

don't underestimate the joy in two inches of snow - besides 2" windblown means boot top powder drifts, at least thats what I found this morning up here

and bring your skins if your going to jay - calliing for heavy wind with the upslope

 

[riverc0il]

I am fine with 2" with powder drifts... but the snow is saturated wet snow here not powder. Pretty manky and several degrees warmer than Burke (lower elevation too). The wind call is mostly for Thursday, right? Haven't seen indication of high winds that would shut down operations for Friday, unless I mis-read?

Edit: Just re-read the NWS posting above which suggests high winds continuing into Friday. Would like some more detail and clarification on that issue including time lines. Those same winds would knock out a lot of lifts along the spine if they continue into Friday. Packing the skins is a good idea, regardless as I have learned this season.

 

[loafer89]

I posted the wind comments so everyone would be aware of the wind conditions for friday. It looks worse for Maine with 45mph + wind forecast for the Bethel area.

 

[nelsapbm]

NWS in Burlington is calling for 6-12" tonight for the Northern Greens & ADKs.

 

[loafer89]

It looks like the NWS scaled back the upper limits of it's snowfall forecast and pushed the heavier accumulations further south:

Click anywhere on the image to zoom in

 

[loafer89]

Higher summit's forecast for friday, sounds tropical:

.FRIDAY...SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF THE CLOUDS. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. NORTHWEST
WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH.

 

[powderfreak]

This is the best looking
upslope event this winter based on 00z/06z NWP guidance. Per BTV CSTAR
research, the three main keys to a memorable upslope event are:

1) H85 winds in excess of 25kts out of the northwest with RH at 90+%
2) Duration of 12 hours or longer.
3) Strong CAA at H85

We've got all of those covered but the real memorable events, in my
experience, are when we get the 50kts at H85 under a deep cyclonic flow...we
actually maintain a strong NW flow up to H5 on Friday night as the system
becomes vertically stacked over the Maritimes. RH values are in excess of
90% at H7 across northern Vermont on the GFS and NAM progs well into Friday.
The vorticity with the cut-off upper level low is sickening over northern
Vermont on Friday...its strong enough to cause a 110kt WNW wind a H5 over
BTV. The low level temps crash and the strong CAA should place us in a
rapidly falling temperature regime Thursday night and Friday...we fall to
-15C at ~4,500ft. Snow should continue through Friday afternoon at which
time precipitable water values fall below a quarter inch as deeper moisture
lifts northeast.


So my call for this is...

Rain changes to snow tomorrow in the early morning hours with bouts of light
snow through noon. Then steady and heavier snow will develop across the
Green Mountain spine from Sugarbush to Jay Peak tomorrow afternoon.
Snowfall rates could exceed 1" per hour for a 6 hour period on Thursday
evening/early Friday AM. Snow continues Friday before tapering off from
south to north along the spine during Friday afternoon.

Totals...1-2 feet Jay Peak...10-16" Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs...8-14" Sugarbush,
Mad River Glen...5-10" Killington.

-Scott

ps: Widespread wind hold on Thursday afternoon and Friday.

 

[andyzee]

No offense intended, but I think it's kind of funny how everyone is looking for the best report. Now, it would be nice if the weather listened to reports. :lol:

 

[2knees]

thanks for the information powderfreak.

 

[highpeaksdrifter]

No offense intended, but I think it's kind of funny how everyone is looking for the best report. Now, it would be nice if the weather listened to reports. :lol:

What else can you do, you gotta have hope. Anyways there have been a number of times this season I was expecting less then good conditions only to show up and be pleasently suprised.

Friday I'm worried about the high winds, but the rest of the weekend looks good.

 

[MichaelJ]

Weather Underground is forecasting 6-12 inches of additional accumulation on Friday all the way from Waterville Valley to Sugarloaf...

 

[thetrailboss]

Pretty much another bust here in Central Vermont. I hate this pattern....

 

[danny p]

Pretty much another bust here in Central Vermont. I hate this pattern....

isn't it supposed to reform and dump this afternoon/evening? Maybe I misread the forecast.

 

[nelsapbm]

Ya....the bulk of the storm is supposed to come later today and overnight. It's dumping in Burlington right now, but it's not really sticking - a very heavy, wet snow.

 

[Greg]

Pretty much another bust here in Central Vermont. I hate this pattern....

isn't it supposed to reform and dump this afternoon/evening? Maybe I misread the forecast.

And I thought the bigger snow totals were due to upslope snows at elevation along the spine...

 

[ski_resort_observer]

Let's hope. Let's also hope the winds don't take the upper lifts out of commission. I could be happy lapping the CR chair of Heaven's Gate on Friday. You coming out SRO?

Josh Fox seems a tad upbeat:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2008/03/fridays-our-best-shot-for-powder-day.html

yup..he is...a couple of weeks ago he predicted 30" and we got 12"....not complaining. I guess when you have little snowmaking you have to be optomistic...:wink: That's why I like Roger Hill on WDEV, "broadcasting from the summit of Sugarbush".

Unfortunately, we are understaffed so I will be in the shop at Gatehouse on Friday. As I mentioned on another thread, any questions or issues feel free to stop by. 583-6530.

This morning we got a 1" in the valley but 4-6" on the mountain, all the upper lifts are on windhold. No big surprise there. It is snowing right now.

 

[Angus]

although March has been a disappointment snow-wise at least these monster storms have been a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. I don't think the snow depths have suffered particularly much.

 

[JPTracker]

Edit: Just re-read the NWS posting above which suggests high winds continuing into Friday. Would like some more detail and clarification on that issue including time lines. Those same winds would knock out a lot of lifts along the spine if they continue into Friday. Packing the skins is a good idea, regardless as I have learned this season.

Check out this NWS Site. It shows the high winds continuing until 7:00 pm Friday.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

although March has been a disappointment snow-wise at least these monster storms have been a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. I don't think the snow depths have suffered particularly much.

Very true.....I think snow coverage for most of the hills in northern NE and the Daks have either remained the same or slightly increased. Nothing shows this better than the snow stake on Mt Mansfield
http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=depths.php

 

[loafer89]

Rader shows a hefty band of snow moving straight for the Greem Mountains of Northern Vermont.

Of course now that I am skiing in Vermont this weekend, Sugarloaf will have a blizzard:-?