Trip to Stratton VT planned for this weekend and the weather looks rainy / awful.

[drjeff]

The latest morning/midday model runs still show just a couple of hundredths of precip over most of VT during the day on Saturday. I'm guessing that the mountains may produce a few more showers than modeled, but still think there is a decent chance of no more than a cloudy, misty day with passing showers and soft snow.



I guess the thaw has taken a big toll on the S VT woods? At the beginning of last week, the woods at Mt. Snow were absolutely buried.

From Saturday morning until I left on Tuesday afternoon, on the shady side of my condo, I lost a good 2 feet from the snow drift on my roof, and on the sunny side, I lost probably closer to 3 feet in the big drift I had on my deck and the 6" or so frozen, iced hard packed stuff that was under what I had shoveled through from last weeks storms so I could grill melted out.

The woods on the mountain still had decent coverage as of Tuesday afternoon. That's before the warmth of the next 4 days hits though......

 

[jmgard]

The latest morning/midday model runs still show just a couple of hundredths of precip over most of VT during the day on Saturday. I'm guessing that the mountains may produce a few more showers than modeled, but still think there is a decent chance of no more than a cloudy, misty day with passing showers and soft snow.



I guess the thaw has taken a big toll on the S VT woods? At the beginning of last week, the woods at Mt. Snow were absolutely buried.

Woods at Snow both in glades and other places were excellent this past Friday. Went up for the morning today and it was T-shirt weather, snow was very slow and glades looked iffy.

 

[sankaty]

Models still quite dry for the first half of Saturday. NWS forecasts aren't as optimistic though, so the professional meteorologists may be seeing signs of a wetter day.

Doesn't look like a washout, but unsure if it will be just passing showers or a persistent wind blown drizzle.

 

[drjeff]

Models still quite dry for the first half of Saturday. NWS forecasts aren't as optimistic though, so the professional meteorologists may be seeing signs of a wetter day.

Doesn't look like a washout, but unsure if it will be just passing showers or a persistent wind blown drizzle.

The part that I'm concerned about, is some METS are calling for the chance of thunderstorms as the front that they're thinking now will pass through later Saturday and bring in some "cooler" air for Sunday. Timing and the strength of the front with respect to t-storm formation potential will be key.

If we've got a powerful front, that passes through early on Saturday afternoon, then you're got the potential for issues with t-storms and operations. If it's like they seem to think now where the timing is going to be likely after the close of operations on Saturday, then the strength of the front and t-storm potential becomes a non issue for the ski day....

 

[Jcb890]

I had written this weekend off to be honest, but you guys are making me re-think our Saturday plans. Last night at Wachusett was some fun spring conditions, but riding in the rain sucks. If I get somewhere and have to deal with rain, so be it, but I'm not driving 2-3+ hours to ride all day in the rain, that's just miserable.

 

[sankaty]

The part that I'm concerned about, is some METS are calling for the chance of thunderstorms as the front that they're thinking now will pass through later Saturday and bring in some "cooler" air for Sunday. Timing and the strength of the front with respect to t-storm formation potential will be key.

If we've got a powerful front, that passes through early on Saturday afternoon, then you're got the potential for issues with t-storms and operations. If it's like they seem to think now where the timing is going to be likely after the close of operations on Saturday, then the strength of the front and t-storm potential becomes a non issue for the ski day....

I agree that I wouldn't want to be on mountain during the frontal passage, but right now the models are showing that happening between 5-7PM. Even if it happened a few hours earlier, much of the day would be fine from a T-storm perspective.

I'm much less confident about what the first half of the day will be like before the frontal passage. It could be persistent light showers or mostly dry. We'll be in VT either way, so my plan is to check the radar in the morning and try to get an early start unless things look much wetter than expected.

I've basically written off Sunday for skiing. I'm not big on frozen groomers, and with the late freeze, there might be a very short post-freeze grooming window. Should be a pleasant, cool day for other activities, though.

 

[Glenn]

Saturday AM is a roll of the dice now. I've been reading the forecast discussion out of the NWS Albany office. Thinking by the noon model run tomorrow, we should have a better idea of when this mess will get started Saturday.

It's insanely warm out today...I went for a walk at lunch. This just isn't right.

 

[Jcb890]

Saturday AM is a roll of the dice now. I've been reading the forecast discussion out of the NWS Albany office. Thinking by the noon model run tomorrow, we should have a better idea of when this mess will get started Saturday.

It's insanely warm out today...I went for a walk at lunch. This just isn't right.

We went out riding last night... Spring riding at night towards the middle/end of February just feels wrong.

 

[nkLottery]

They still claim 97/97 trails. I almost want to go up with my old skis and ski their glades bare

 

[Jcb890]

They still claim 97/97 trails. I almost want to go up with my old skis and ski their glades bare

I wouldn't be too shocked in regards to the trail count. Any trails with snowmaking will be fine for now and still open. Even natural terrain should be OK enough to still be open. Not for long though if this weather keeps up.

 

[VTKilarney]

I wouldn't be too shocked in regards to the trail count. Any trails with snowmaking will be fine for now and still open. Even natural terrain should be OK enough to still be open. Not for long though if this weather keeps up.

It's crazy warm out there right now, with some more warm weather ahead. The natural snow trails are going to start dropping quickly.

 

[drdavidge]

Thanks for the info. Forecast is looking okay for Saturday at least. Based on this, do you think Friday is not worth going since there will be a 50-60% chance of rain for the majority of the early day? Or worth taking a chance and checking it out? We decided to come up anyway and are staying in Manchester now for the weekend - rain, snow or shine!

 

[Jully]

My strategy is that it's always worth taking a chance. Even more so if you have a season pass.

 

[Glenn]

Keep an eye on the radar. Showers look pretty spotty now. You may get lucky.

 

[yeggous]

My strategy is that it's always worth taking a chance. Even more so if you have a season pass.

There we go. I too always take a chance, but I won't do so if I am paying for lodging and lift tickets. I will just go to North Conway where I have a pass and can stay at my ski club for no marginal cost.

I too cancelled my Stratton / Okemo trip for this weekend.

 

[SIKSKIER]

Have them in all my jackets.

 

[Jcb890]

The wife and I are now debating going up somewhere tomorrow. It looks like the AM has a shot to just be overcast. Stratton might be an OK option since hopefully crowds would be down due to weather and it looks like rain may not start until 1pm.

 

[bdfreetuna]

edit: My bad guys, posted wrong forecast.

 

[bdfreetuna]

The wife and I are now debating going up somewhere tomorrow. It looks like the AM has a shot to just be overcast. Stratton might be an OK option since hopefully crowds would be down due to weather and it looks like rain may not start until 1pm.

Tomorrow is going to be good! I got a room booked in Middlebury, looking forward to spring bumps @ MRG. Looks kind of bony lower on the mountain but Paradise Fall Line and that stuff should be fun. Might dodge the rain completely from the looks of it.

 

[eatskisleep]

Thanks for the info. Forecast is looking okay for Saturday at least. Based on this, do you think Friday is not worth going since there will be a 50-60% chance of rain for the majority of the early day? Or worth taking a chance and checking it out? We decided to come up anyway and are staying in Manchester now for the weekend - rain, snow or shine!

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hows that saying go? A bad day of skiing is better than a good day at work!