Tux this weekend - Am I crazy...

[AdironRider]

So this sat is my one shot at Tux, am I dreaming with this anticipated snowfall?

 

[cbcbd]

I would just keep a constant eye on the avy report on tuckerman.org until this weekend and go with what they say, too early to tell now. If anything you could always get a run down the Sherbie.

 

[salida]

8:37 a.m., Wednesday, April 4, 2007 Tuckerman Ravine currently has Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. Huntington Ravine has both Moderate and Low avalanche danger today. South, O'Dell's, Pinnacle and Central gullies all have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. All other forecasted areas in Huntington have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.
Here comes the yo-yo snow of April. Gain a little lose a lot, gain a lot lose a little. You’ve all seen it before so you know what I’m talking about. As of 7am we received 2.4" (6cm) at Hermit Lake and 1.6" (4cm) on the summit with 8 and 10% density respectively over the past 24 hours. The big news of course is the issuance of a WINTER STORM WARNING from 8am this morning through 10am Thursday. The number 1 phrase of the day in the National Weather Service discussions is "Frontogenetic forcing on the thermal ribbon". In other words…precipitation! We will likely see 8-12" (20-30cm) by morning with half of that possible by dark today. Some sources are pumping out 16", but this seems a bit optimistic. Crossing your fingers couldn’t hurt though. As this system moves out gentle upslope conditions should deliver additional healthy accumulations by the weekend. The Salgus weather model is anticipating the potential for 20” (50cm) between now and Saturday morning. Let’s hope the model’s algorithm is correct.
Today’s snow and short period of mixing will be brought in by a light to moderate southerly flow with gusts in the 45mph (72kph) range. This will focus new loading on northern aspects such as Hillman’s and Left Gully in Tuckerman and South and O’Dell’s in Huntington. Cross loading will occur so being weary of locations such as the Chute or Central Gully is prudent. This morning’s snow will increase in density causing instability before getting lighter again as colder air moves into the region. After some potential for thunderstorms today intensity should pick up overnight with a wind shift out of the SE. Tomorrow loading will increase on all aspects as winds turn to the W and slightly rise in velocity. New snow will load on mostly slick surfaces so I would expect poor bonding to occur. Anticipate gradually moving up though the "Moderate" definition and hedging to "Considerable" in places, particularly N aspects by late in the day. This means we will be awfully close to natural avalanches moving from "unlikely" to "possible" in these areas. Although locations like Right gully will be Moderate today it will greatly lag behind locales with north facing slopes or have some cross loading issues. Steep slopes such as in Huntington will likely see numerous small sluffs as they shed some new snow. This can also be found in locations posted at Low such as Yale, Damnation and North gullies. Be prepared for this potential. Keep a close eye on amounts of precipitation, intensity, and make smart choices. I think at least some "High" slats will be out tomorrow. Be sure to check Thursday’s advisory before heading into the Ravines.
This is the time of year where winter and spring hazards co-exist. In addition to winter weather and avalanche danger, you need to be aware that our normal spring hazards are showing up early this year. These hazards include crevasses, undermined snow, and the potential for falling ice. Be alert today and pay attention to what's above and below you at any point. Have a plan ahead of time concerning how you will deal with falling ice, tumbling skiers, or a slip and the resulting slide.
The Little Headwall is an open waterfall with collapsing snow bridges. New snow may hide many of these hazards. Walking to Hermit Lake is the best option The John Sherburne Ski Trail is open but expect icy conditions and long bare sections throughout the trail. The Lion Head Winter Route is open. This is a steep and challenging route. Crampons, an ice axe, and the ability to properly use this equipment are necessary for safe travel on this route.
The Harvard Cabin is closed for the season. This includes all the tent sites around the Cabin. The only legal camping in the Cutler River Drainage is at Hermit Lake.

PLEASE REMEMBER:

• It is impossible to accurately predict natural events, such as avalanches, in every instance. This Advisory is one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be used along with safe travel techniques, snow stability assessments, an understanding of weather's effect on the snowpack, and proficiency in avalanche rescue.

• You should obtain the latest weather forecast before heading into the mountains. Anticipate a changing avalanche danger when actual weather differs from the National Weather Service forecast.

• For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers or the AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters. This advisory will expire at midnight.
Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
USDA Forest Service
White Mountain National Forest
(603) 466-2713 TTY (603) 466-2856

It looks like things could go into the "HIGH" range... Looks sketch for the weekend, but not out of the question. You could always go up and just have fun skiing the sherbie

 

[dmc]

Go - check the reports... Ride low angles... usual stuff.

 

[Newpylong]

Too coollldddd this weekend for Tucks...

 

[riverc0il]

So this sat is my one shot at Tux, am I dreaming with this anticipated snowfall?

Yes, you are dreaming. It is definitely not too early to call, I wouldn't go near the ravine this weekend and that is without even bothering to look at the Avi Report:
http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/index.html

Which after a quick look suggests that a Considerable rating by tomorrow is likely with snow continuing right into the weekend. Never ski Tuckerman based on your schedule, ski the ravine based on the snow pack, weather, conditions, etc. Saturday being your one shot at Tuckerman this season should have absolutely zero influence on your go/no-go decision. Besides, powder day lift serviced! Woo!!! If you decided to go, be ready to turn around without skiing the Bowl based on conditions. I have skied just the Sherburne before and it is a good ski and the new snow will be good. So go if that appeals to you with the knowledge that you may not ski the Ravine itself if conditions do not allow.

 

[mountaindude]

Yes, you are dreaming. It is definitely not too early to call, I wouldn't go near the ravine this weekend and that is without even bothering to look at the Avi Report:
http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/index.html

Which after a quick look suggests that a Considerable rating by tomorrow is likely with snow continuing right into the weekend. Never ski Tuckerman based on your schedule, ski the ravine based on the snow pack, weather, conditions, etc. Saturday being your one shot at Tuckerman this season should have absolutely zero influence on your go/no-go decision. Besides, powder day lift serviced! Woo!!! If you decided to go, be ready to turn around without skiing the Bowl based on conditions. I have skied just the Sherburne before and it is a good ski and the new snow will be good. So go if that appeals to you with the knowledge that you may not ski the Ravine itself if conditions do not allow.

This is good advice from Steve. Follow it and you have a better chance of being alive on Monday.

 

[Breeze]

Having left the local vicinity of Pinkham Notch at 4:30 this afternoon, there is NO WAY Tucks will ripen for a casual Spring Ski this weekend.

It is puking heavy dense spiculate stuff up there, its POW, its dry, won't hold a snowball but its packing on 16 enough to be dangerous in 4WD, and MHO ( My Humble Opinion ) says it won't genenerate a good bond with the existing substrate. Not only that, but overnight tonight the composition of the <dump> will change again to lighter, drier and deeper pow, just another layer that won't bond immediately and will like to slide.

We aren't forecast to get any substantial sunshine through the weekend. No warming trend to paste stuff to stuff.



Add windblown accretion to the mix and that says to me, more instability.

Take your dreams to lift serviced POW this weekend, LET TUX BE A GOAL it isn't going anywhere.

Breeze

 

[Skier75]

Sounds like pretty good advice to me. These guys sound like they know what they're taking about. I'd be a little cautious with this snow too, up at Tuck's.

 

[riverc0il]

For the record, I am extremely cautious about this stuff, so take my advice with that in mind. But with a recent report like this, it is hard not to be cautious when dealing with this stuff. The biggest warning signs in the report are that snow is falling on "slick services" and there is going to be "poor bonding." I haven't been doing this long enough to be an expert at it, but this much potential snow and a weak layer is about as glaring an issue as can be seen. Add in a little wind loading and watch out.

 

[snoseek]

Having left the local vicinity of Pinkham Notch at 4:30 this afternoon, there is NO WAY Tucks will ripen for a casual Spring Ski this weekend.

It is puking heavy dense spiculate stuff up there, its POW, its dry, won't hold a snowball but its packing on 16 enough to be dangerous in 4WD, and MHO ( My Humble Opinion ) says it won't genenerate a good bond with the existing substrate. Not only that, but overnight tonight the composition of the <dump> will change again to lighter, drier and deeper pow, just another layer that won't bond immediately and will like to slide.

We aren't forecast to get any substantial sunshine through the weekend. No warming trend to paste stuff to stuff.



Add windblown accretion to the mix and that says to me, more instability.

Take your dreams to lift serviced POW this weekend, LET TUX BE A GOAL it isn't going anywhere.

Breeze

so maybe the cat is a good bet tomorrow?

 

[AdironRider]

Ive been before so its not really a big deal at all. Might end up getting one more day on that Cannon pass after all.

 

[Breeze]

When I spoke to Dickie Hall at the last NATO weekend workshop, he said that there would be a very short window for Tux this year. The chutes are extremely narrow, there is no windpack cushion anywhere, and the Bowl is already down to scrub vegetation, lunch rocks fully exposed.

Thinking that this dumpa tonight will surely make a big difference for the coming weekend in Tucks might be akin to a making a big Jamaica Mistake-uh.

Breeze

 

[Breeze]

snoseek,

i don't make it a practice to honk the horn for my employer, but it has been snowing so hard at Wildcat since noon today I can't imagine groomers will go out tonight.... what is the point if snow is falling at 2-3 inches per hour overnight??

Probably will be 10 -12 + inches of dense dry windblown spiculate pow over a VARIABLE FGR Spring surface for Thursday morning, expect intensive grooming thursday night for Friday and the weekend. IN SPITE OF THE AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW, BE CAUTIOUS. there is very little base, keep to groomers unless you anticipate sharing a PTEX moment with a local repair shop..

Breeze

 

[salida]

Ptex and I are best friends