Weather for 05-06 ski season

[ALLSKIING]

Take it for what you will but the 05-06 Farmers Alminac is reporting a good ski season for the North East. More snow and colder temps then normal. The Western forecast is warmer and dry... That sucks... We will see lets hope they got it right. 04-05 they were on the money.

 

[highpeaksdrifter]

I believe they have scentific evidence on their NE perdiction. As far as out West goes, they're just a bunch of supersesious sod busters.

 

[awf170]

Take it for what you will but the 05-06 Farmers Alminac is reporting a good ski season for the North East. More snow and colder temps then normal. The Western forecast is warmer and dry... That sucks... We will see lets hope they got it right. 04-05 they were on the money.

Sweeeeeet... is there a link to the page with there predictions, or is there anywhere were you can see past year data?

Edit: I found this years prediction, but im still looking for history of accuracy, supposidly there 80-85%

 

[ALLSKIING]

Take it for what you will but the 05-06 Farmers Alminac is reporting a good ski season for the North East. More snow and colder temps then normal. The Western forecast is warmer and dry... That sucks... We will see lets hope they got it right. 04-05 they were on the money.

Sweeeeeet... is there a link to the page with there predictions, or is there anywhere were you can see past year data?

I read it at a book store today while I was picking up Ski and Powder 8) .

 

[thetrailboss]

:beer:

Ladies and Gentlemen, start your engines!

 

[BeanoNYC]

This may help a bit, Austin.

http://www.weathernotebook.org/transcripts/2003/10/01.php

"The results? For temperature, the Almanac forecasts had a correlation of slightly less than zero with the observed anomalies - meaning that the little tin box has essentially no skill in predicting temperature. But with precipitation, The Almanac forecasts actually had a significant negative correlation with the observations - meaning that there were many winter days when the tin box was not only inaccurate but downright wrong."

 

[BeanoNYC]

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/inter/ask/ask10.htm

That's another. I can't seem to find any real scientific article. I'm surprised that nobody has tackled this.

 

[rjc1976]

I took the time to follow both the Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmer's Almanac last year. IMO, the Old Farmer's Almanac is useless! On the other hand, the Farmer's Almanac did get some stuff right (and some stuff wrong of course). It seems to be decent at predicting general patterns and precipiation, but it's not as good at temps (rain vs. snow) from what I saw.

 

[ctenidae]

In my experience, they're pretty accurate, say 80%, within a week or so. If they say a big storm will come through January 5th, it'll probably be there somewhere between Dec 30 and Jan 12. For forecasting months in advance, I'll take that kind of accuracy.

Who was the weather guy in Canada who was wrong for 100% of last winter? For all that, last winter I think the TV predictions were wrong much more often than they were right. If nothing else, there were two declared snow emergencies when nothing came down, and the 34 inch dump was predicted to be what, 8 inches? I don't rely on the weather guys to tell me what's going on right now, much less next week.

 

[Strat]

In my experience, they're pretty accurate, say 80%, within a week or so. If they say a big storm will come through January 5th, it'll probably be there somewhere between Dec 30 and Jan 12. For forecasting months in advance, I'll take that kind of accuracy.

Who was the weather guy in Canada who was wrong for 100% of last winter? For all that, last winter I think the TV predictions were wrong much more often than they were right. If nothing else, there were two declared snow emergencies when nothing came down, and the 34 inch dump was predicted to be what, 8 inches? I don't rely on the weather guys to tell me what's going on right now, much less next week.

I find the weathermen are wrong far too much of the time when it comes to snowfall totals... that said, I still watch them like a hawk. :wink:

 

[dmc]

Unless there's a storm charging up the East Coast - I don't pay much attention...

All the other stuff is just entertainment...

 

[Brettski]

Polar Coaster?

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/

Maybe I should look for a deal on a snow blower....

 

[dmc]

Polar Coaster

hmmm... thats a good name for a band...

 

[loafer89]

One thing that is for sure is that the climate is warming up, Mount Washington is about to enter into the climate weather record books as having the warmest summer June-August period since daily records were kept in 1932. This year saw three months with average mean temperatures above 50F

Also Perenial Artic sea ice is at a record low extent, permafrost in Canada/Alaska is melting a an alarming rate. Cold air has to be manufactured in areas with darkness and cold/frozen ground and there is alot less permanently frozen ground in the north as each year goes by.

I think this winter will be warm and wild :evil:

 

[Greg]

One thing that is for sure is that the climate is warming up, Mount Washington is about to enter into the climate weather record books as having the warmest summer June-August period since daily records were kept in 1932. This year saw three months with average mean temperatures above 50F

Also Perenial Artic sea ice is at a record low extent, permafrost in Canada/Alaska is melting a an alarming rate. Cold air has to be manufactured in areas with darkness and cold/frozen ground and there is alot less permanently frozen ground in the north as each year goes by.

Not to start a "global warming" debate, but even if the Mount Washington has experienced a warming pattern over the last 73 years, who's to say it's not a result of some larger climatological cycle? This is partly why I'm a hard sell on the "global warming" theory. It's all based on less than a hundred years of data - a very narrow slice of an extremely large pie...

 

[loafer89]

I firmly believe that the global climate is warming, the evidence for this is everywhere that one looks. I am just not sold on the fact that it is man-made.

In the Arctic, multi year sea ice is 6% below normal for June, which is a significant amount, the ice has pulled away from the Alaskan coast. Some villages one the coast need to be relocated as sea levels rise and shoreline erosion worsens.

In the antartic, temperatures have risen by 4.5C in just 50 years, and 13,500 square kilometers of ice have been lost in just 30 years time.

Glaciers are a very good indicator of climate change and in nearly every location on the planet (with small localized exceptions) glaciers are retreating RAPIDLY. Every tropical glacier is retreating, in locations such as Bolivia, Kenya, Indonesia and Mexico.

On Mount Kilimanjaro 82% of an ice cap that is 12,000 years old has been lost since 1912, with 1/3 of the ice melting since 1989.

I think that the climate change implications for New England will be more intense, but shorter winters, with increased costal storms due to a larger temerature differential.

Just my 02.

 

[awf170]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=winter_energy

keeps sounding better

 

[Zand]

Just about every forecast is promising, most scenarios seem to fall into place for a good winter... BUT

Solar Flares. In 2001 when we had solar flares in the fall, we had a junk winter. Let's hope the number of good scenarios outnumber the one bad one.

 

[smootharc]

Solar Flares...

Just about every forecast is promising, most scenarios seem to fall into place for a good winter... BUT Solar Flares. In 2001 when we had solar flares in the fall, we had a junk winter. Let's hope the number of good scenarios outnumber the one bad one.

Sorry, but I dozed alot in earth science....pray tell what are these flares, and what is it that they are believed to influcence ?