powderfreak
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- Jan 9, 2007
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I don't have a lot of time today but I am gaining increasing confidence on a
significant arctic outbreak after January 20th. We'll be done with warmth
and mixed precipitation after the event tomorrow (which BTW, looks like very
minor snow accums before a dose of rain) and I am keying in on what could be
a significant east coast storm on Monday. The European has been bringing in
a moderate snowstorm for the North Country while the GFS just nailed the
I-95 corridor on the 12z run, leaving us with only light amounts of
snowfall. Seasonal trend has been for a further NW track which still leaves
a chance at a moderate to significant snowfall for us on Monday. Storm will
be a quick mover with max amounts of 6-12" where ever the best frontogenesis
sets up. Keep an eye on that one.
Then we've got seasonal temperatures next week with occasional snow showers.
It may still end up being above normal next week, but a high of 30F and a
low of 20F is above normal at BTV...so keep that in mind. I believe we'll
stay below freezing all next week.
The cold is currently re-loading in northern Canada. Cross-polar flow looks
to set up and our major indexes (NAO/AO/PNA) look to fall in a favorable
manner by the end of the month. Just like this last warm spell, I'm feeling
a fairly high confidence forecast here and we will get very cold towards Feb
1st. Its going to take a big storm to bring this cold air in and the best
chance looks to be within a few days of Jan 20th. The best part about what
I'm seeing with the cold pattern is, while we'll be too cold for southern
jet stream big, juicy lows to effect us, the northern jet will be nearby and
a clipper pattern is what I'm seeing. I think we all know what arctic cold
and daily light snows in the mtns can do...
Ski season II will be coming very soon. We'll start next week and it might
be slow at first, but I think by Feb 1st, we'll have forgotten this whole
thing even happened.
-Scott
ps: I'll be on the Pacific coast so updates through Jan 18 will be sporadic.
significant arctic outbreak after January 20th. We'll be done with warmth
and mixed precipitation after the event tomorrow (which BTW, looks like very
minor snow accums before a dose of rain) and I am keying in on what could be
a significant east coast storm on Monday. The European has been bringing in
a moderate snowstorm for the North Country while the GFS just nailed the
I-95 corridor on the 12z run, leaving us with only light amounts of
snowfall. Seasonal trend has been for a further NW track which still leaves
a chance at a moderate to significant snowfall for us on Monday. Storm will
be a quick mover with max amounts of 6-12" where ever the best frontogenesis
sets up. Keep an eye on that one.
Then we've got seasonal temperatures next week with occasional snow showers.
It may still end up being above normal next week, but a high of 30F and a
low of 20F is above normal at BTV...so keep that in mind. I believe we'll
stay below freezing all next week.
The cold is currently re-loading in northern Canada. Cross-polar flow looks
to set up and our major indexes (NAO/AO/PNA) look to fall in a favorable
manner by the end of the month. Just like this last warm spell, I'm feeling
a fairly high confidence forecast here and we will get very cold towards Feb
1st. Its going to take a big storm to bring this cold air in and the best
chance looks to be within a few days of Jan 20th. The best part about what
I'm seeing with the cold pattern is, while we'll be too cold for southern
jet stream big, juicy lows to effect us, the northern jet will be nearby and
a clipper pattern is what I'm seeing. I think we all know what arctic cold
and daily light snows in the mtns can do...
Ski season II will be coming very soon. We'll start next week and it might
be slow at first, but I think by Feb 1st, we'll have forgotten this whole
thing even happened.
-Scott
ps: I'll be on the Pacific coast so updates through Jan 18 will be sporadic.