X-mas warm-up....

[Tin]

Actually the 12z euro for late next week just put a big smile on my face. But I am back down to earth as I count how many days away that is and remember my rule of late - believe no forecast that is more than 5 days.

But a guy can dream........

Yes. Amazing how that model has gone to crap though. Wouldnt mind seeing it be right on that one.

Hi res still big on Thurs-Fri, RGEM a little better, and the GFS is trending better since last night. Definitely starved for moisture but the NAM solutions have upped things to half to an inch of QPF along the spine and in the Whites, would be 13:1 + ratio stuff that I'm not sure would open natural trails that lost a ton of snow. I'm more interested to see if the hi res models get this right again than skiing it at this point.

 

[ALLSKIING]

What does your Magic Weather Machine say about tnt's 3 days at SB/MRG over NYE?

My guess would be to ski the Bush...MRG probably won't be great.



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[bdfreetuna]

Well the NAM was too optimistic on last night/this morning.

Interesting the 12Z NAM 3k Conus is looking at 12" snow @ Mount Snow by Sunday (60 hour).

Weather Underground says 1-3". Hmm Hmm Hmm.

 

[Tin]

Bush is up to 6" since last night, Jay at 3-5". NAM had it going through the low and upslope until early tomorrow morning. We shall see. My rule of thumb with the NAM models is cut off a third of the liquid. Could be close to right. It was the only thing that forecasted decent mountain snow.

 

[tnt1234]

Seems like things are generally a little more optimistic. Still a warm up after X-mas, but chance for decent recovery on Thursday. Gonna be cold come NYE, but hopefully that's on the heels of some snow.

 

[Tin]

7" at the summit of Bush. Most others from K north saying 3-5" and it is still snowing up the spine. Ragged claiming 5".


Better than expected.

 

[dlague]

7" at the summit of Bush. Most others from K north saying 3-5" and it is still snowing up the spine. Ragged claiming 5".


Better than expected.

That will help to cover the ice!

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[tnt1234]

Dang...now that Thursday 12/29 precipitation is getting called wintery mix...crap.

 

[ss20]

Dang...now that Thursday 12/29 precipitation is getting called wintery mix...crap.

Depends on what you look at. The Euro is holding steady with a coastal system that POUNDS New England with snow that might be measured in feet rather than inches depending on where you are. The GFS is holding firm with "no soup for you" and has a quick band of rain/snow.

The GFS has been pretty accurate this winter while the Euro has been even more snow-happy than usual, but it's a coastal so anything can happen...

 

[ss20]

Euro says Merry Christmas...

 

[Tin]

Euro says Merry Christmas...

View attachment 21335

First time this year the GFS is trending towards the EURO slowly. Timing is BIG with this deal. 12Z NAM would throw tons of backside snow for the mountains.

 

[skiberg]

Can it be an actual Neaster? How long has it been 20 months?


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[bdfreetuna]

oh man that would be sweet. Doing Bolton Valley on the 1st and Sugarbush on the 2nd. Gonna be watching this closely!

 

[NYDB]

thursday on looks like a solid pattern.

 

[tnt1234]

Wow - this is shaping up nicely.

 

[dlague]

I just watched the WMUR weather report and saw the band of rain that went through and today it is above freezing everywhere. Looks like a Refreeze for tomorrow so the snow coming Thursday 6" or so is timely.

You are in a rain, refreeze, snow and repeat pattern. Cut it out!

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[snoseek]

Well if the models stay true then things are about to get real nice. Maybe actually get some real snow in NH?

 

[skiberg]

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

That's a bit more than 6"


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[thebigo]

Beat GYX snowmap in the last couple years

http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter

 

[Jully]

Beat GYX snowmap in the last couple years

http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter

Lets go!

Expecting at least 8-10" for most of ski country in NH!