The Future of the Ski Industry

deadheadskier · Sep 28, 2014

I did think that perhaps the child's health issues were part of those high CC totals. The $2700 mortgage payment is what struck me as odd when the average home in Plano goes for about $250K. Seems to me they over extended themselves on their home. Either way, unless you live in Manhattan, San Fran, etc., I give very little sympathy to families that say they struggle making it with $125K/year in family income.

Edd · Sep 28, 2014

Yeah, reading it a second time, I see they lost their first home because the medical expenses slayed them. Then, they got back on their feet and ended up with a $2700 mortgage on an entirely different home. I assume that's a 15 year spread. I wish them luck.

bobbutts · Sep 28, 2014

Large houses are helped out by artificially low interest rates. Run a mortgage calculator to check the difference between a 4% rate of today vs. 15+% in the 80's.
1.8M at 4% over 30 years is ~$8,600 monthly payments
at 18% it's $27,000 monthly
In fact to get the payments down to $8,600 with an 18% rate, you can borrow only $570,000
That's more triple the buying power for the borrower!

Edd · Sep 28, 2014

bobbutts said:
Large houses are helped out by artificially low interest rates. Run a mortgage calculator to check the difference between a 4% rate of today vs. 15+% in the 80's.
1.8M at 4% over 30 years is ~$8,600 monthly payments
at 18% it's $27,000 monthly
In fact to get the payments down to $8,600 with an 18% rate, you can borrow only $570,000
That's more triple the buying power for the borrower!

I'll take your word on all that, but I think average Americans need to live smaller. I hear frequent talk about entitlement regarding the truly poor, but not much talk about people who do have jobs and simply have to own a home but, really, can't afford it.

This is entirely my opinion, but, it feels to me like its blasphemy to tell someone that they can't really afford the house / kid thing. It's considered an absolute right to do it, reality be damned. I guess it is, but it's often not smart.

BenedictGomez · Sep 28, 2014

deadheadskier said:
I think a big part of why people feel the economy is so bad is because people have redefined what our basic quality of life needs to be and are upset when they can't afford cell phones, iPads, 52" TVs and cars for every family member and going out to eat 5 nights a week.

The economy is bad because the economy is bad, but you do make a good point. The "standard of living" has greatly increased, and it is ridiculous how a Mother, Father, and 1 kid are living in these giant McMansions. For what? Because they'll think less of themselves if their house isnt as big as their neighbors. I'm intentionally renting a great place right now because I believe it's a terrible time to buy a house (yes, I know that's a contrarian view), but when I do buy, I can assure you I'll buy less home than I can afford, not more. There are millions of Americans right now that are either underh2o on their homes, or "house poor" because their mortgage is so large. Screw that!

Smellytele · Sep 29, 2014

I must be doing something wrong because I could never imagine having an $8600 a month house payment. Mine is only under 11% of that and I wish it was less. I must (blasphemous words coming) spend too much skiing. No that can't be it. It has to be having 3 kids.

SkiFanE · Sep 29, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
The economy is bad because the economy is bad, but you do make a good point. The "standard of living" has greatly increased, and it is ridiculous how a Mother, Father, and 1 kid are living in these giant McMansions. For what? Because they'll think less of themselves if their house isnt as big as their neighbors. I'm intentionally renting a great place right now because I believe it's a terrible time to buy a house (yes, I know that's a contrarian view), but when I do buy, I can assure you I'll buy less home than I can afford, not more. There are millions of Americans right now that are either underh2o on their homes, or "house poor" because their mortgage is so large. Screw that!

It's sickening actually. When I see what it costs to heat my 1750sq foot house, I wonder about these 5k Sqft mcmansions near me. Fine if you want to pay $1.5m for your house, but it seems somewhat selfish to the earth if you then spend gobs of resources to heat and cool the huge thing. There are some of those on my street - one occupied by a single guy, one by a couple with no kids, one by a couple with their kid grown, and the biggest is by another empty next couple. My family of 5 crams into 1750sq feet, and I really don't feel a need for another foot of space (could use some updates for sure lol..but space? naw...). Window AC that is used about 5 days/year...whereas these mcmansions are climate controlled bubbles...$$$$$$. Because we go small, we can afford to have a small ski house, for less mortgage and taxes than people pay for their mcmansions. We haven't had cable TV in 15 years - we're pretty simple, I don't think 'stuff' means a lick of anything to my life. If you saw me and my ski equipment you'd understand... I finally bought my first pair of new skis in years in June...rest have been used...and I can't tell a difference - if you can ski, you can ski anything...focus on skills, not the gear. Of course...our kids get all the new crap haha... Somethings like helmets and gear to keep you warm I will spring on, but youll never see me keeping up with the Joneses (actually, I'll blow them away on the slopes in my crap gear lol).

deadheadskier · Sep 29, 2014

The McMansion trend seems to be dying a bit here on the NH Seacoast. A lot of the new development I'm seeing are advertised as "smart size" houses and are in the 1700-2300sf range. That would still be a very large house compared to what was built in the past (excluding Victorian era), but it's an improvement over the 3-5K square foot home proliferation of the past 20 years.

My wife and are bursting at the seems in a 728 sqft one level condo and looking to move, but even when we have kids I doubt I'd ever see myself in some huge ass home. I'd rather go the route you did SkiFanE and have two smaller homes, than one massive one.

BenedictGomez · Sep 29, 2014

SkiFanE said:
I finally bought my first pair of new skis in years in June...rest have been used...and I can't tell a difference - if you can ski, you can ski anything...focus on skills, not the gear.

I've had such great experiences buying used skis that I'll never buy new again. I finally added a powder ski to the quiver last month. I'll probably only use them 2 to 5 days per season, but I dont care because I paid < 1/3 what these skis/bindings would have cost when they were new just two seasons ago in 2012/2013. Let someone else depreciate the helloutof them.

deadheadskier said:
The McMansion trend seems to be dying a bit here on the NH Seacoast. A lot of the new development I'm seeing are advertised as "smart size" houses and are in the 1700-2300sf range. That would still be a very large house compared to what was built in the past (excluding Victorian era), but it's an improvement over the 3-5K square foot home proliferation of the past 20 years.

It's largely went the way of the dodo bird here in NJ too, and I live in the 3rd wealthiest county in America. But even here they're NOT selling briskly as they once did. Plenty of "FOR SALE" signs on them. IMO, there has been a recent psychological shift post this recession on the part of Americans whereby a reality check has set in that there are numerous drawbacks to these ginormous houses. Cost of maintaining, cost of mortgage, cost of heating and cooling, fear of forward Real Estate price risk given you're tying up SO much of your net worth all in one asset, etc... That and I think "the American Dream" is no longer considered something you "must" do. If you look at new construction in this country, rental units, condos, even new homes for rental etc... it's booming.

mriceyman · Sep 29, 2014

Some of these mansions by us in nj have a property tax of 30 grand! Insanity

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SkiFanE · Sep 29, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
I've had such great experiences buying used skis that I'll never buy new again. I finally added a powder ski to the quiver last month. I'll probably only use them 2 to 5 days per season, but I dont care because I paid < 1/3 what these skis/bindings would have cost when they were new just two seasons ago in 2012/2013. Let someone else depreciate the helloutof them.

It's largely went the way of the dodo bird here in NJ too, and I live in the 3rd wealthiest county in America. But even here they're NOT selling briskly as they once did. Plenty of "FOR SALE" signs on them. IMO, there has been a recent psychological shift post this recession on the part of Americans whereby a reality check has set in that there are numerous drawbacks to these ginormous houses. Cost of maintaining, cost of mortgage, cost of heating and cooling, fear of forward Real Estate price risk given you're tying up SO much of your net worth all in one asset, etc... That and I think "the American Dream" is no longer considered something you "must" do. If you look at new construction in this country, rental units, condos, even new homes for rental etc... it's booming.

I ski on SL race skis - so have had luck getting them from racers - in good shape, babied - and I use them til every last bit of edge is gone. Looked around and couldn't find any this spring - mine backup to the old pair finally started flopping after last edging lol...nothing left. So saw some new Volkl SL race skiis (forget the name, but they are one step down from WC, but more like beer-league) - $499 for them with bindings and shipping...I'll get 5 years out of them at least, I hope. I did buy new custom mid-fats about 4 years ago - like you I think I got 2 days on them last year - as soon as the untracked is gone - I'm done with them, nothing like my SL for the bumps.

McMansion and tear-down fever is still huge in my area. Honestly, at 1750 and on a beautiful acre of land in a beautiful neighborhood - mine is in that category or one that will be blown to bits and enlarged to 4000. We had an architect look at ours and devise a plan for a great room type thing...and at $100k to do what we wanted...and then the extra few grand in taxes...decided not worth, already one kid out of house at college, and I guess space is just not worth the price. We're ditching our town as soon as kids are out of the schools (10 years). But houses are demolished like crazy around me - nothing left for young families, it's sad.

jimk · Sep 29, 2014

Perhaps the switch I've seen on the McMansion thing in the last 5-10 years in DC area is an increase in the number of youngish upwardly mobile couples readjusting the goal for a million dollar piece of real estate. Instead of a giant mansion fairly far out in the suburbs, they are going for gentrified old townhouse in the inner city. I suppose there are some nice conservation benefits in that trend, but cost to home buyer is about the same.

VTKilarney · Sep 29, 2014

When we purchased our house I insisted that we would never be a slave to our home. If, God forbid, one of us were to lose our job, we could still easily make our mortgage payment. I've never regretted that decision.

dlague · Sep 29, 2014

I also think that the largest adult segment - baby boomers - have adult children who have not been in their careers too long and the parents are downsizing. I for one, have three out of four kids in their early twenties and out of the house. Not that we have a mansion but, we live on 2.5 acres and I am tired of the maintenance of the house and yard. We are in the downsizing stage an want something maintenance free. i also think that many 20-30 somethings have seen parent who work their butts off with their homes and they want non of that and would prefer to spend their resources on fun stuff!

VTKilarney · Sep 29, 2014

I have never wanted to live in a condominium, but I can see how that may change when I am older and don't want to worry about maintenance. There is a lot to be said for a condo at that stage of life.

dlague · Sep 29, 2014

VTKilarney said:
I have never wanted to live in a condominium, but I can see how that may change when I am older and don't want to worry about maintenance. There is a lot to be said for a condo at that stage of life.

I am a ways from retirement - however, my wife and I are setting the stages to have a place to stay on the cape during the summer around the National Sea Shore (nowhere near Hyannis and neighboring towns) and then having a condo in ski country for the Winter.

VTKilarney · Sep 29, 2014

dlague said:
I am a ways from retirement - however, my wife and I are setting the stages to have a place to stay on the cape during the summer around the National Sea Shore (nowhere near Hyannis and neighboring towns) and then having a condo in ski country for the Winter.

I know some people who moved to the Cape after retirement. Most have regretted the decision. They have all told me that winters are miserable and spring is depressingly long and cold (thanks to the cold ocean water) and that just when the weather becomes nice, the place gets slammed with people. I've spent a lot of time on the Cape, and I have always felt that the crowds can be avoided or managed. I still think it would be a great place to retire - but I am definitely concerned.

BenedictGomez · Sep 29, 2014

mriceyman said:
Some of these mansions by us in nj have a property tax of 30 grand! Insanity

Agreed, but those folks can likely afford it. What's far more financially suicidal are the folks paying $10,000 to $15,000 in property taxes per year in New Jersey on what are, frankly, fairly modest homes. These are middle-class folks, and it's a horrible impairment to them and their families financial future. It's mindboggling to me how few people seem to understand this. They just pay. And dont even get me started on New Jersey's unconstitutional, "We'll hurt you bad if you try to leave" tax. All reasons while I'll either continue to rent in NJ, or possibly buy some day in eastern PA (which is now a "boom town" from fleeing Jerseyans).

dlague said:
I also think that the largest adult segment - baby boomers......... tired of the maintenance of the house and yard. We are in the downsizing stage

This is just one small sliver of my bearishness on US Real Estate.

dlague · Sep 29, 2014

VTKilarney said:
I know some people who moved to the Cape after retirement. Most have regretted the decision. They have all told me that winters are miserable and spring is depressingly long and cold (thanks to the cold ocean water) and that just when the weather becomes nice, the place gets slammed with people. I've spent a lot of time on the Cape, and I have always felt that the crowds can be avoided or managed. I still think it would be a great place to retire - but I am definitely concerned.

Hence, summer in the the Cape and Winter in the mountains (VT or NH). We visit the cape every summer and generally stay around Orleans, Chatham area not as crowded as Yarmouth, Dennis Port or Hyannis. We love the outer cape beaches! Decent surf by east coast standards.

Smellytele · Sep 29, 2014

SkiFanE said:
It's sickening actually. When I see what it costs to heat my 1750sq foot house, I wonder about these 5k Sqft mcmansions near me.

40-50 years ago 1750sq foot home would have been a large home.

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