Predictions for 2018

xlr8r · Jan 6, 2018

Jay and Burke will get sold considering it has now been almost 2 years since the raid went down. Probably both wil be sold together as a package deal. Most likely buyers IMO are KSL or Vail as both need more properties in New England to drive pass sales.

Stratton and all other Intrawest resorts will leave MAX Pass but will join Mountain Collective as KSL intends to remain part of that pass product. I could see Smuggs joining MC as well considering they are not with any multi pass right now. IMO MC needs at least three mountains in New England to really drive pass sales, right now it cant compete with MAX. Jay and Burke are also possibilities depending on who buys them.

Stratton will replace the Snowbowl quad with either a detachable quad or six.

Killington has confirmed it will put a fixed quad in at south ridge. It could be new or that could be the relocated snowden quad if that lift is also replaced by a detachable. It has been confirmed that Bear lodge will be rehabed

Bretton Woods has confirmed they will build a gondola

I expect Boyne will sit on their asses and do nothing

BenedictGomez · Jan 6, 2018

KustyTheKlown said:
I think vail will buy smuggs and physically connect it to stowe, in the next 3 years

Sadly, this is precisely what I feared the moment I heard Vail/Stowe went down.

raisingarizona said:
$ talks. It's got to happen, I mean, how could they not?

Exactly; it's Vermont. All you have to do is funnel $$ to the proper politician(s).

xlr8r said:
Jay and Burke will get sold considering it has now been almost 2 years since the raid went down. Probably both wil be sold together as a package deal.

Why would anyone want Burke?

I do think it's possible Jay Peak / Burke get sold as a package deal, but the only scenario I can envision that happening under is if there's a competitive bidding process going on among several interested buyers, and the sale is given to the party who bites the bullet and takes on Burke because they really want Jay Peak.

Smellytele · Jan 6, 2018

medfordmike said:
I am a Max pass add on guy so I have not been to Crotched in the past two years. Are you referring to making snow early season? Just curious and I like Crotched but the Peaks Pass geography isn't a great option for me. I would have thought the new passes would have brought a lot of volume to Crotched.

They get back what they put into it. Peaks pushing people to Snow early season has a negative effect on Crotched. The cold weather has been no friend of Crotched which their signature midnight madness has been hurt by.

deadheadskier · Jan 6, 2018

You guys thinking the interconnect between Stowe and Smuggs will happen are out of your minds. Between state park lands, Sterling Pond and the Long Trail being located where the ski development would need to go, it ain't gonna happen. That ship sailed long ago before Act 250 was an idea jotted down on a cocktail napkin. Think about it. Both resorts have been around for 50+ years. If it was possible, it would have happened already.

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ss20 · Jan 6, 2018

deadheadskier said:
You guys thinking the interconnect between Stowe and Smuggs will happen are out of your minds. Between state park lands, Sterling Pond and the Long Trail being located where the ski development would need to go, it ain't gonna happen. That ship sailed long ago before Act 250 was an idea jotted down on a cocktail napkin. Think about it. Both resorts have been around for 50+ years. If it was possible, it would have happened already.

Ditto 100x. Never gonna happen beyond a skinning trail between hills.

ss20 · Jan 6, 2018

My prediction is Killington fails to get it's condos, Bear Lodge, and new South Ridge lift open for 2018-2019 as promised.

No Act 250 permits filed. And here's the link to the development- http://www.ora-bearmtn.biz/

My hunch is Killington has limited involvement in this and it's Ottauqueechee (the developer) footing most of the bill. And if they can't run the website for their own development or get permitting going by January 2018 then there's no way in hell there's a new Bear Lodge, SR lift, or condos built come December 2018. Has anyone heard anything since that press release in April???

This is coming from someone who loves Killington and wants the best for them...especially Bear since that's my go-to lodge and a SR lift is needed for Killington desperately.

raisingarizona · Jan 7, 2018

deadheadskier said:
You guys thinking the interconnect between Stowe and Smuggs will happen are out of your minds. Between state park lands, Sterling Pond and the Long Trail being located where the ski development would need to go, it ain't gonna happen. That ship sailed long ago before Act 250 was an idea jotted down on a cocktail napkin. Think about it. Both resorts have been around for 50+ years. If it was possible, it would have happened already.

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Squaw Valley is putting a gondola connecting to Alpine that goes through designated wilderness area. That's in California where the Sierra Club was founded. Vail might be able to make that happen.

BenedictGomez · Jan 7, 2018

raisingarizona said:
Squaw Valley is putting a gondola connecting to Alpine that goes through designated wilderness area. That's in California where the Sierra Club was founded. Vail might be able to make that happen.

Yup. You're CA example is a good one as a corollary.

The Eco-extremists used to rule the world in Vermont in the 90s and 00s, but their influence has been waning recently due to the realization of the fact the politicians who were in their pocket now have zero fear of losing elections. Once the pols come to that understanding, they no longer need that modest lobbying money.

I'm certainly not saying it's a slam-dunk, and I absolutely realize there will be massive eco-extremist opposition - I just think that those eco groups are not the political puppet-masters that they once were in Vermont, and that massive corporate money in excess of eco lobbying money could win the day. I previously would have agreed with those saying 0% chance, but now I'd call it a 50:50 coin flip if big money got involved.

machski · Jan 7, 2018

I predict O-Z will sell at least one property out of it's Eastern asset pool.
Jay will either sell (Vail or KSL) or will join the Max Pass (as Max will be looking for additional with loss of Tremblant and Stratton to MC).
Burke will join Max.
Killington will delay Bear plans, but Peak to Base zip course will break ground.
Mount Snow will do Sunbrook.
Vail will begin plans for Stowe, probably Toll House but not break ground til 2019.
Balsams will break ground by fall.
Saddleback deal goes south, the non profit group steps up.
Boyne does nothing of significance again signaling it will suck money from all other resorts to pay for Big Sky Master Plan.

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deadheadskier · Jan 7, 2018

We will see if politics have changed enough in VT. I know in the 90s, Stowe tried to plan a terrain pod with lift between the gondola and four runner. Because of the haselton hiking trail, the state laughed at them. I just don't see downhill ski operations being built on the path of the Long Trail.

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Pez · Jan 7, 2018

I prefer Sun-brook stays as is. Maybe a small lodge with a bathroom.

Edd · Jan 7, 2018

I’ve skied Sunbrook maybe once in my life so hazy memories here. That seems like a good spot to hang out at the bottom and have beers, right?

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ss20 · Jan 7, 2018

I believe the plan is too have a warming hut at the bottom of the lift (which will become a hsq).

BenedictGomez · Jan 7, 2018

deadheadskier said:
I just don't see downhill ski operations being built on the path of the Long Trail.

You wouldn't have to have a lift built on the Long Trail. I agree that would never happen (nor should it). But you could have a lift at Stowe, and a lift shorter lift at Smuggs, and have them both terminate just before the Long Trail (it would avoid Sterling Pond too). Skiers would then just have to ski over a short portion of the Long Trail (the tiny line in my pic below), which I don't see as a big deal.

Pez · Jan 8, 2018

Edd said:
I’ve skied Sunbrook maybe once in my life so hazy memories here. That seems like a good spot to hang out at the bottom and have beers, right?

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There's nothing really there except for the two lifts. Maybe there are a couple porta pottys. The trails have an old school NE feel.

Smellytele · Jan 8, 2018

Pez said:
There's nothing really there except for the two lifts. Maybe there are a couple porta pottys. The trails have an old school NE feel.

I guess maybe more interesting than the front blues because they actually have turns in them but still nothing great.

Predictions for 2018

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