Does it always piss hot rain right before or on Christmas in eastern ski country or does if just seem that way?

[hespeler]

For now it doesn't look like anymore precip through Friday, the 30th. Won't most places have the guns on to salvage skiing post Xmas day? Maybe not what we've had the past week but hopefully edgable snow by Monday or Tuesday?

 

[drjeff]

For now it doesn't look like anymore precip through Friday, the 30th. Won't most places have the guns on to salvage skiing post Xmas day? Maybe not what we've had the past week but hopefully edgable snow by Monday or Tuesday?

Yup, going to see who has the snowmaking firepower for sure once the cold air arrives. Those that can really pump it out should be abke to recover fairly decently over a reasonable amount of their snowmaking terrain by the time the real throngs of masses show up along about the 27th.

Depending on how brutal Mother Nature actually turns out to be on Friday, some of the resorts who got the big snow totals this past weekend may still have enough snow to work with once it drains for a day or 2 on some of the lower angle natural terrain. Atleast it appears that the worst of the warm temps and rain will be in and out in under 24hrs rather than a prolnged, multi day melting situation.... And that is likely about a "the glass is 80% full" view of things I suspect

 

[ss20]

Short window?! im seeing estimates of 2.5-3.5 inches of r**n down the spine of the green mountains. Buckle up everyone! looks like were going to be back to square negative one. Will the valleys even have power next week? When are they opening a bubble in the chic chocs? wah wah

6" forecasted for Killington and Sugarbush with the trend headed in the right direction.

Not sure what you use but not many sites other than NOAA account for elevation. If your base is above 2,000 feet it's not going to be a disaster. K, Busch, Loaf, MRG, Jay, heck even Stratton all going to be fine as far as snow depth loss (or lack of)

 

[Kingslug20]

The wind friday will be a big issue...

 

[Smellytele]

6" forecasted for Killington and Sugarbush with the trend headed in the right direction.

Not sure what you use but not many sites other than NOAA account for elevation. If your base is above 2,000 feet it's not going to be a disaster. K, Busch, Loaf, MRG, Jay, heck even Stratton all going to be fine as far as snow depth loss (or lack of)

Before or after the r@!n?

 

[cdskier]

6" forecasted for Killington and Sugarbush with the trend headed in the right direction.

Not sure what you use but not many sites other than NOAA account for elevation. If your base is above 2,000 feet it's not going to be a disaster. K, Busch, Loaf, MRG, Jay, heck even Stratton all going to be fine as far as snow depth loss (or lack of)

Even above 2000' you're still going to get 1-2" of non-frozen precip followed by a rapid drop in temperature. At 2500' at Sugarbush I'm seeing the forecast currently showing 2-4" of snow before the changeover and then only 1-1.5" of snow as the temps plummet. Maybe you won't lose much depth, but whatever is left will be rock solid and it will take more than an inch on the backend of snow to fix that...

And then there's the winds...NWS is saying potentially Cat 1 Hurricane force winds in spots. That's never good for ski lifts... (or trees and power lines)

 

[2Planker]

New Hampshire is being forced to legalize because of so much hard currency leaving the state. I'm guessing $25,000,000 - $40,000,000 a year. We are a tourist state and loose other revenue. At any rate, hope for snow and sharpen your skis.

Exactly RI just legalized for that exact reason.
One MA border town has 4 dispensaries already and they're getting one of the first Drive Thru's on the east coast

 

[machski]

Before or after the r@!n?

Before, then it jumps to 50+F with 1.5-2.5" of liquid. Nothing is looking up, it is looking like flooding is a major concern and long duration power outages due to high winds and rapidly softening ground around poles and such. Fun times. Hope most will have the opportunity to light the guns up Friday night as the cold rushes in but betting many will be waiting on line crews to fire up.

 

[Scottyskis2]

This bad for people and the hills that give us, on the forums reason to live. And nothing, good coming from this ice storm for anyone in North East and I don't ski anymore but I, want better weather is only out west glad I got there several times over decade ago .!@!
""For Hudson Valley NY from very reliable Facebook weather page same name HD weather :
"""

Thursday PM thru Friday PM Storm Update-

Hazards- Wind,Heavy Rain, Isolated Flooding, Snow,Flash Freeze, Dangerous Wind Chills

Precipitation-

-Starts SW to NE between 4-6PM Thursday

-Precip may start as snow and wintry mix across Sullivan,NW Orange,Western Ulster,Western Greene and Delaware Counties coating to 3 inches possible in the coldest and highest terrain- accumulations unlikely outside of these regions and may still only be limited to areas above 1500’

-Precip almost immediately begins to change to sleet and rain beginning south and lower elevations first. (this only applies to regions mentioned above, as all others start as rain)

-Period of freezing rain possible across higher terrain, sheltered mountain valleys during transition from snow to rain. This hazard will remain until surface warming catches up to air temps ( .01-.20 of ice accretion possible) most likely period for icing is between 10pm-2am

-All areas change to rain by 1AM (watch for freezing rain, see previous bullet point)

-Heaviest rainfall Thur 7PM- Fri 3AM

-Lull in precip 4AM-9AM Friday

-Precip redevelops ahead of Arctic front between 9AM-11AM Friday from SW to NW

-Arctic front turns rain to snow from west to east between 10AM-2PM (Additional 1-3” possible across higher terrain above 1500’) Watch for very hazardous travel where snow falls, it will briefly cause white out conditions, combined with refreezing of roadways may lead to rapid icing conditions. A coating at best is possibke across the remainder of the region, most will see nothing but the flakes in the air before precip departs.

-Precip ends from SW to NE between 2PM-5PM Friday

-Rainfall amounts 1”-2” (2”-3”across higher terrain
and southern facing slopes)

Winds-

Begin to increase 4pm Thursday
Max gusts 10PM Thur thru 8AM Fri
Max Gust Potential- 30-55MPH
Winds remains gusty 15-30MPH through Sunday
Scattered Tree Damage and Outages likely
(Full gusts impacted by cloud cover and local topography, hard to forecast if max winds will impact the surface)

Flash Freeze Arrival-

West to East between 11AM and 2PM Friday 40-50° temperature drops in under 12 hours. Be aware that all standing water, runoff, moisture in your car doors, will freeze up very quickly Friday afternoon. Hazardous travel due to rapid freeze up is possible region wide.

Temps-

Thursday High Temps - Mid to Upper 30’s across most of region, low 30’s across higher terrain, near 40 across southern most zones

Friday High Temps- Upper 40’s to mid 50’s
Friday Low Temps- Single digits and teens
Friday PM Wind Chills- (-20 to -30)

Temps may not get back above freezing until Wed of next week. Icy conditions and frozen runoff will persist through the weekend into early next week.

Be prepared that damaging winds coupled with dangerously low temps can make for very dangerous conditions overnight, be prepared for this possibility. In addition, sump pumps not backed up by generator power may cause flooding conditions.

Flooding-

Frozen ground may cause enhanced runoff of rainfall, frozen ground has also been known to create flooding conditions in areas atypical to localized flooding as runoff seeks new paths.

Some of the heaviest rainfall looks to occur over the locations that received 10-20” of high moisture content snowfall last week. The creeks, streams and rivers impacted by the watershed of the Catskills should be prepared for the potential for sharp river rises and potential flooding.::":""

-Alex

 

[ctdubl07]

I was looking forward to a nice year end week on the VT couch, maybe go out on the slopes here and there. Daughter has to work at Mtn for a few days after Xmas so we have to be up there.
You folks are depressing the sh:t out of me....so much so I just checked forecast in So FL, figuring screw it, grab a couple hotel rooms for a few days and at least get some sun...Murphy's law, the forecast down there is sh:t also....clouds and rain for the week!

 

[Smellytele]

I was looking forward to a nice year end week on the VT couch, maybe go out on the slopes here and there. Daughter has to work at Mtn for a few days after Xmas so we have to be up there.
You folks are depressing the sh:t out of me....so much so I just checked forecast in So FL, figuring screw it, grab a couple hotel rooms for a few days and at least get some sun...Murphy's law, the forecast down there is sh:t also....clouds and rain for the week!

Iguanas will be falling out of the trees in Florida…

 

[ss20]

Hate to beat my personal dead horse... but NOAA, NOAA mountain point, snow-forecast, opensnow, and the short-range models continue to drop the snow ceiling lower and lower and lower. 6-10" now with 6-10 hours of temps above freezing at 4,000' in between snow.

Again, this is not a piss warm fogfest that destroys the snowpack. That was never the storm setup. Heck, there's enough on the back-end that surface conditions might actually be OK Saturday.

 

[Kingslug20]

I'm stocking up...on egg nog...

 

[1dog]

Hate to beat my personal dead horse... but NOAA, NOAA mountain point, snow-forecast, opensnow, and the short-range models continue to drop the snow ceiling lower and lower and lower. 6-10" now with 6-10 hours of temps above freezing at 4,000' in between snow.

Again, this is not a piss warm fogfest that destroys the snowpack. That was never the storm setup. Heck, there's enough on the back-end that surface conditions might actually be OK Saturday.

Mellen:

Mount Ellen (Vermont) Weather Forecast (1244m)

Mount Ellen (Vermont), Green Mountains, Appalachians, United States Mountain weather forecast for 1244m. Detailed 6 day mountain weather forecast for climbers and mountaineers.

www.mountain-forecast.com

Stratton:

Stratton Mountain (Vermont) Weather Forecast (1201m)

Stratton Mountain (Vermont), Green Mountains, Appalachians, United States Mountain weather forecast for 1201m. Detailed 6 day mountain weather forecast for climbers and mountaineers.

www.mountain-forecast.com

Jay:

Jay Peak Weather Forecast (572m)

Jay Peak, Green Mountains, Appalachians, United States Mountain weather forecast for 572m. Detailed 6 day mountain weather forecast for climbers and mountaineers.

www.mountain-forecast.com

 

[1dog]

Mellen:

Mount Ellen (Vermont) Weather Forecast (1244m)

Mount Ellen (Vermont), Green Mountains, Appalachians, United States Mountain weather forecast for 1244m. Detailed 6 day mountain weather forecast for climbers and mountaineers.

www.mountain-forecast.com

Stratton:

Stratton Mountain (Vermont) Weather Forecast (1201m)

Stratton Mountain (Vermont), Green Mountains, Appalachians, United States Mountain weather forecast for 1201m. Detailed 6 day mountain weather forecast for climbers and mountaineers.

www.mountain-forecast.com

Jay:

Jay Peak Weather Forecast (572m)

Jay Peak, Green Mountains, Appalachians, United States Mountain weather forecast for 572m. Detailed 6 day mountain weather forecast for climbers and mountaineers.

www.mountain-forecast.com

Jay ( summit)!!!

Jay Peak (Vermont) Weather Forecast (1176m)

Jay Peak (Vermont), Green Mountains, Appalachians, United States Mountain weather forecast for 1176m. Detailed 6 day mountain weather forecast for climbers and mountaineers.

www.mountain-forecast.com

 

[snoseek]

yes looking less devastating for many. sure conditions will get fucky for a bit but im not so sure its gonna completely destroy that nice base we have down.

 

[Kingslug20]

Ice will obviously be a huge issue...plus those winds will do...damage?

 

[GregoryIsaacs]

Id like to know what dispensaries ya'll are hitting!

Near 50 and an inch+ of rain w/ 60 mph wind will likely release carnage on the snowpack... Then who knows what's going to happen once it all flash freezes.... (as you can see my pessimism may be working! here).

 

[NYDB]

yes looking less devastating for many. sure conditions will get fucky for a bit but im not so sure its gonna completely destroy that nice base we have down.

yeah, groomed terrain should come out ok by next week after they have a few grooms and some snowmaking love. the masses don't show up til 12/27. the weather next week looks great for families after 12/26. Light winds, no extreme cold, a chance for a few snow showers.

perfect for the big players really and the 10 day a year skiers who are not venturing off the blue or green terrain.

it's a shame for the natural terrain though. last week was great. hope some AZ ers are out there today getting the last of it

 

[KustyTheKlown]

yea, maybe not wholesale destruction of snowpack but natural terrain and trees and anything ungroomed is gonna be a nope til the next snows, which don't seem on the horizon. I'm sticking with tremblant, crowds be damned. get there early, park on the north side, take a long European style lunch if necessary, ski heavily from 1:30-4 after the place has quieted. whatevs