Not to be a downer, but we are due for a bad snow year...

[Johnskiismore]

The oaks are dropping acorns like crazy. The holly bushes had berries in August. We're going to get pummeled! :lol:

:beer:

 

[Highway Star]

If Killington really got 280" then I would like to borrow that measuring stick...f extenze.

One thing in my years at Killington that I have noticed..........I would rather them get about 150" of snow and minus the higher than normal amount of rain they get during the course of the year. They seem to get more than there fair share of rain during the course of a winter.

We got a ton of snow early season and it was consistantly good through February. Snowpack was quite deep. Then it pretty much stopped snowing....but there was enough pack to ski unmarked glades on corn snow in late April.

 

[deadheadskier]

We got a ton of snow early season and it was consistantly good through February. Snowpack was quite deep. Then it pretty much stopped snowing....but there was enough pack to ski unmarked glades on corn snow in late April.

Would you take last season over 07?

well, that's probably not a good question to ask you as 07 saw Powdr really scale back ops and close early.

I guess I just have always been one to prefer the lions share of the snow to come in February in March over December - January.

 

[ctenidae]

If a coin comes up "heads" 3 times in a row... it is neither more nor less likely that the next toss will result in tails.

Thnik Snow! :beer:

Unless you're Guildenstern. Or was it Rosencrantz?

No matter, they're both dead.

I hope it's a good snow year, but even more so I hope it's a good time-off-from-work year.

 

[bobbutts]

dreaming of snow...

 

[faceplant]

.

farmers almenac– real cold – good
accuweather– cold & snowy – good

noaa– not so good


like meatloaf once said–
'2 outta 3 aint bad'–
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_Tf2lQvDz0




.

 

[mister moose]

True, but there's only a 1 in 16 chance of it happening 4 times in a row.

And you call yourself an engineer.

Each event is independent. Unless you have access to the next generation Cray supercomputer, and have developed a closed model for the entire world, there is no predicting the next season.

The odds for an above average snowfall this year are the same as always.

The 16 to one odds you speak of is for 4 independent events each with 2 possible outcomes that are yet to occur, not for or including events that have occured in the past.

 

[snoseek]

And you call yourself an engineer.

Each event is independent. Unless you have access to the next generation Cray supercomputer, and have developed a closed model for the entire world, there is no predicting the next season.

The odds for an above average snowfall this year are the same as always.

The 16 to one odds you speak of is for 4 independent events each with 2 possible outcomes that are yet to occur, not for or including events that have occured in the past.

Winner!

 

[mondeo]

.

farmers almenac– real cold – good
accuweather– cold & snowy – good

noaa– not so good


like meatloaf once said–
'2 outta 3 aint bad'–
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_Tf2lQvDz0




.

I'm a follower of the expect the worst, hope for the best philosophy on life. I'm expecting thaw events, hoping for non-stop snow. In any case, I'm getting my 100 days this year, because if I don't, I'll be another year older when I do.

Plus some nice ice can be good now and then. Good for speed and working on technique.

 

[deadheadskier]

I'm a follower of the expect the worst, hope for the best philosophy on life.

then I'd say you're doing alright :lol:

j/k

 

[ski220]

And you call yourself an engineer.

Each event is independent. Unless you have access to the next generation Cray supercomputer, and have developed a closed model for the entire world, there is no predicting the next season.

The odds for an above average snowfall this year are the same as always.
.

Not weather. It is ALL related. That is why forecasting is so difficult to get right. But you can have an intelligent discussion.

"Following a fairly warm autumn (Oct-Nov in particular) in the northeast, I expect December to remain quite mild well into the month with a gradual tendency towards more severe cold late in the month. If there is going to be record warmth, expect it around the 2nd-5th and possibly around the 15th. This could be a fairly dry pattern (snow-deficient) outside the lake effect snow belt, as the flow is likely to start WSW and turn more WNW as the month proceeds.

January is likely to be a colder than normal month at least until the last week, the signals from my research show a marked flip-flop to very mild around then, lasting into February. Anomalies might reach -5 F during the month but may not be sustained there by the end because of this flip-flop. Large energy peaks around the 1st, 14th and 29th-30th should bring the most prominent storms to the east coast, and these may all involve snow if not being all snow, the storm track should begin to drop much further south in late December and begin to favour the offshore nor'easter track in January. Severe cold is likely at times in January, and it should be a prodigious lake effect snow month. Around the 24th the pattern may change rapidly, as warmth spreads from western regions into the northeast and Great Lakes. This may set up quite a battleground scenario especially with the winter's largest energy peak coming along from 27th to 30th of January, I hesitate to speculate what might happen but some kind of intense northward-moving storm would be likely, possibly in two stages.

February is likely to be much milder with considerable melting of snow leading to flooding in the inland northeast and Great Lakes regions. This milder spell may be as far above normal as early to mid January would be below, giving the winter a sort of 1984 feel, but with more storminess thrown in. Unlike 1984, the signals suggest a continued warm spell into March and April, so possibly quite a warm spring to follow this rather unusual winter.

One of the better analogues I could find was 1856-57, a winter memorable for its very cold January especially the "cold day" on the 22nd when highs were well below zero (F) even along the east coast. That winter underwent the rapid transition to very mild in February and there were heavy snows in January, heavy rains in February.

I'm not sure if there has been a winter quite like this scenario in modern times, 1975-76 is the closest temperature profile although that was not an exceptionally stormy winter (there was a lot of lake effect snow in January though."

 

[mondeo]

Not weather. It is ALL related. That is why forecasting is so difficult to get right. But you can have an intelligent discussion.

"Following a fairly warm autumn (Oct-Nov in particular) in the northeast, I expect December to remain quite mild well into the month with a gradual tendency towards more severe cold late in the month. If there is going to be record warmth, expect it around the 2nd-5th and possibly around the 15th. This could be a fairly dry pattern (snow-deficient) outside the lake effect snow belt, as the flow is likely to start WSW and turn more WNW as the month proceeds.

January is likely to be a colder than normal month at least until the last week, the signals from my research show a marked flip-flop to very mild around then, lasting into February. Anomalies might reach -5 F during the month but may not be sustained there by the end because of this flip-flop. Large energy peaks around the 1st, 14th and 29th-30th should bring the most prominent storms to the east coast, and these may all involve snow if not being all snow, the storm track should begin to drop much further south in late December and begin to favour the offshore nor'easter track in January. Severe cold is likely at times in January, and it should be a prodigious lake effect snow month. Around the 24th the pattern may change rapidly, as warmth spreads from western regions into the northeast and Great Lakes. This may set up quite a battleground scenario especially with the winter's largest energy peak coming along from 27th to 30th of January, I hesitate to speculate what might happen but some kind of intense northward-moving storm would be likely, possibly in two stages.

February is likely to be much milder with considerable melting of snow leading to flooding in the inland northeast and Great Lakes regions. This milder spell may be as far above normal as early to mid January would be below, giving the winter a sort of 1984 feel, but with more storminess thrown in. Unlike 1984, the signals suggest a continued warm spell into March and April, so possibly quite a warm spring to follow this rather unusual winter.

One of the better analogues I could find was 1856-57, a winter memorable for its very cold January especially the "cold day" on the 22nd when highs were well below zero (F) even along the east coast. That winter underwent the rapid transition to very mild in February and there were heavy snows in January, heavy rains in February.

I'm not sure if there has been a winter quite like this scenario in modern times, 1975-76 is the closest temperature profile although that was not an exceptionally stormy winter (there was a lot of lake effect snow in January though."

Show me the standard deviations around any prediction. We still don't even have the computational power to carry out large eddy simulation modeling of turbulence for practical uses, modeling is essentially useless. Yes, you can predict based on initial conditions, but weather diverges extremely quickly. Besides, the quote mentions only 3 years as being similar; you need 5 to have any real statistical value, and even then I wouldn't anticipate the prediction being particularly good.

The only real thing I'd trust is that there will be a La Nina for a bit. Ocean currents tend to be fairly stable, and their effects somewhat predictable.

 

[deadheadskier]

oh man

even if I was a meteoroligist, I'd be screwed in this thread. :lol:

 

[ski220]

One more -

Winter 09-10 Outlook
Now this is where it gets pretty tricky. We have an elnino, but will it become a moderate or strong elninio. Some meteorologists are predicting that this elnino will strengthen in the fall and weaken in the winter, which is perfect for snow lovers in the east coast. Now, I kind of like their scenario because some models are now believing that scenario. Most of the models now show it not getting as strong as previously thought. So, What I think will happen is this elnino will strengthen into a moderate to possibly strong elnino in the fall and weaken to a weak to moderate elnino during the winter. This scenario is perfect for our area on the east coast and we want the snow and cold. SO, If you like the cold and want the snow, this forecast is for you. Unless you are in the Midwest around Chicago where they could get less snow this year, and they have had their share of snow these past winters and the east coast is due for a major snow this winter. Not saying that it will be snowy and cold all winter, their will be some warm periods and some rain. The Midwest will get some snow and cold, but just not as much as the east coast. The major influence is going to be the subtropical jet will be a possible player this winter. This will mean more Gulf of Mexico storms developing and riding up the coast. Some remember the 93 super storms which brought some areas in the southeast to close, like Atlanta and Birmingham. Now im not saying that we will get a foot of snow this winter. It’s just that when you have all that moisture in the air that means more snowfall. IT doesn’t necessarily have to be cold enough to produce snow. So, the west coast will be warmer than usual except for the areas around san fran and south than that.

 

[ski220]

oh man

even if I was a meteoroligist, I'd be screwed in this thread. :lol:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vu053jjttTk

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

One more -

Winter 09-10 Outlook
Now this is where it gets pretty tricky. We have an elnino, but will it become a moderate or strong elninio. Some meteorologists are predicting that this elnino will strengthen in the fall and weaken in the winter, which is perfect for snow lovers in the east coast. Now, I kind of like their scenario because some models are now believing that scenario. Most of the models now show it not getting as strong as previously thought. So, What I think will happen is this elnino will strengthen into a moderate to possibly strong elnino in the fall and weaken to a weak to moderate elnino during the winter. This scenario is perfect for our area on the east coast and we want the snow and cold. SO, If you like the cold and want the snow, this forecast is for you. Unless you are in the Midwest around Chicago where they could get less snow this year, and they have had their share of snow these past winters and the east coast is due for a major snow this winter. Not saying that it will be snowy and cold all winter, their will be some warm periods and some rain. The Midwest will get some snow and cold, but just not as much as the east coast. The major influence is going to be the subtropical jet will be a possible player this winter. This will mean more Gulf of Mexico storms developing and riding up the coast. Some remember the 93 super storms which brought some areas in the southeast to close, like Atlanta and Birmingham. Now im not saying that we will get a foot of snow this winter. It’s just that when you have all that moisture in the air that means more snowfall. IT doesn’t necessarily have to be cold enough to produce snow. So, the west coast will be warmer than usual except for the areas around san fran and south than that.

Does it really matter for those at Killington..........they are 100% that they will get the worst 280" of snow ever.........heck doesn't even need to snow and they will get 280".

 

[JD]

Always something to do. Maybe we'll get lots of rain and it will be epic wite water. Or maybe it will not snow until january and we will still be riding MTB and ripping dirt bikes. Or maybe it will snow alot then not bust stay cold and the Back Coutry will be epic for weeks and weeks. New England is a shitty place to live of you live for 1 activity. Diversify you hobbies.

 

[Riverskier]

I agree with this 100%.

I'd much prefer a late season blasting like 3 years ago than an early season blasting like last year.

Obviously not great for the bottomlines of the ski areas, but it does force more snow / greater base to be made early season.

The start of the 2006-2007 season was one of the worst I have ever seen, but I would ultimately take a repeat of it every year if I could. Regular snowfall and no freeze/thaw cycles from mid January through the end of the season. I remember skiing April 15th at Sunday River in a snow storm, and the glades were bottomless. The next weekend I was at the loaf after they received 40+ inches from the Patriot's Day Nor'Easter. 100% of the mountain open, including the snowfields, and bottomless. Despite having one of the worst starts to a season in my lifetime, it ended up being one of my best seasons ever.

No predictions from me, but we have had 3 good snow years in a row year in Maine, and I hope it continues!

 

[Rogman]

Last year was kind of weird. Ton of snow until March, and then it just stopped. So much for March being the snowiest month...

In recent years, Killington's snow numbers have been pretty spot on. K-Zone has some serious beer riding on the total by BMMC, and the subject has been well debated.

 

[RootDKJ]

Does it really matter for those at Killington..........they are 100% that they will get the worst 280" of snow ever.........heck doesn't even need to snow and they will get 280".

qft

:lol: