Alpine ticket rates,New England 2012-13

[billski]

Jiminy has been upping their game for a number of years

You're spot on. It's all about convenience for them. They are not competing on price. Mt. Snow is an excuse, not a legit comparison. They are certainly not targetting Western Mass. The income level is way too low for that. The W Mass crowd at Berkshire East, Otis Ridge, Bosquet.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I think it's perfectly fine and logical to compare ticket increases versus CPI to gauge the relative "bite".

The problem, however, is that it's not useful in practice or fair to the resort to just look at one year.

For example, lets say a given resort increased their ticket price by 5.1% this year, which is 3X the CPI of 1.7%. Well, if they havent increased their ticket prices in 5 years, the cumulative inflation since late 2007 is actually 9%, meaning their 5.1% increase would actually be lower than the rate of inflation. Hardly a "shame worthy" increase.

I did some work on this in a thread a year or two ago when people were complaining about ticket prices. My belief going into the analysis was that mountain ticket prices were getting egregious over the years, but after doing the work, what I learned was that versus the cost of inflation most mountains were actually pretty reasonable with their price increases.

 

[billski]

The problem, however, is that it's not useful in practice or fair to the resort to just look at one year.

Fair enough. Take a peek at the list I've been compiling for 9 year.
I'll take the

6-year,2006-2012 2006-2012 6 year delta CPI , 6 year, 14% Median 29% Average Wage, Natl. 0.5% Black Mountain, Maine 89% Saddleback 51% Granite Gorge 45% Cranmore 42% Bolton Valley 41% Black, NH 41% Mad River 40% Sugarbush 40% Gunstock 38% King Pine 38% Ragged 37% McIntyre 36% Sunday River 36% Ski Ward 35% Burke 35% Whiteface 33% Waterville 33% Pico 33% Bosquet 31% Shawnee Peak 31% Mount Sunapee 31% Windham Mountain 31% Butternut 30% Gore 30% Sugarloaf 30% Jay Peak 29% Berkshire East 29% Balsams 29% Killington 28% Wildcat 27% Hunter NY 26% Cannon 26% Middlebury 24% Bellayre 24% Pats Peak 23% Suicide Six 23% Crotched 23% Bretton Woods 22% Jiminy Peak 22% Okemo 22% Stowe 21% Stratton 21% Wachusett 21% Smugglers 21% Magic Mountain 20% Mount Snow/Haystack 20% Attitash 19% Bromley 17% Loon 17% Dartmouth 8% Cochran's -33%

 

[BenedictGomez]

^ So, using Gore as an example, you have them listed at 30%, does that mean you're saying they're increased prices 30% in 6 years? (i.e. given a ticket there is $75 today, it was $57.50 in 2006)

 

[WWF-VT]

And you are assuming that folks only buy rack rate day tickets when you say that people go less. The best value, by far, is to buy a season pass. And, of course, you are forgetting about the plethora of deals out there that many places run. Fewer and fewer folks pay the full rack rate.

+1

 

[billski]

+1

^ So, using Gore as an example, you have them listed at 30%, does that mean you're saying they're increased prices 30% in 6 years? (i.e. given a ticket there is $75 today, it was $57.50 in 2006)

Here are the numbers for Gore.

03-04	04-05	05-06	06-07	07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
$ 56	$ 57	$ 61	$ 64		$ 71	$74	$ 77	$ 79	$ 79

BTW, 79 is the holiday rate 2012-13.

 

[billski]

+1

This is not a compilation to evaluate consumer behavior. It's not even an analysis. It's just fiddling with numbers. This is for entertainment's sake only! Did you have a chance to review my methodology or objectives / lack thereof? At the risk of achieving full boredom, here it is, http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/intro.htm

As part of the work, I've ignored discounts, multi-day rates, combos, dealer/distributor rates, and on and on. Window holiday rate, adult, all day ticket is the most steady comparable rate available from year to year. All of the aforementioned have too much variability and combinations to be able to normalize. It's fair to say that nearly nobody pays window one day rate, except in an emergency!

If people take seriously me HOS list, then shame on them!

Smile, it's gonna soon and I won't be around long enough to think up stupid project like this. Or at least not make them public! Love to see you guys take a run at the data.

 

[BenedictGomez]

BTW, 79 is the holiday rate 2012-13.

Wouldn't it be more fair to the mountains to use the normal weekend rate rather than the holiday rate? Also, that way you could compare holiday rates to holiday rates over the years, which would be pretty interesting as well.

But I think there's a glitch in your spreadsheet (I'm assuming you do this in Excel?) somewhere, as $79/$64 = 23%, not 30%.

EDIT: Nevermind, I see you're taking $79/$61.5 = 30%, but that would be going back 7 years, versus 6 years of inflation.

 

[billski]

Wouldn't it be more fair to the mountains to use the normal weekend rate rather than the holiday rate? Also, that way you could compare holiday rates to holiday rates over the years, which would be pretty interesting as well.

But I think there's a glitch in your spreadsheet (I'm assuming you do this in Excel?) somewhere, as $79/$64 = 23%, not 30%.

EDIT: Nevermind, I see you're taking $79/$61.5 = 30%, but that would be going back 7 years, versus 6 years of inflation.

Yeah, it's 7 years. I didn't update the title! Now I have to go back and rerun the cpi and avg wage. Too lazy right now.
But since Gore didn't change it's rate in the last two years, the calc would still work, just out of dumb luck!

I started by only collecting holiday rates for a number of years. At the time, I was only interested in the most expensive rate out there. Since then, I've been doing things with the data I never intended.

 

[Conrad]

Vail and Beaver Creek $129 lift tickets...no more words necassary.

 

[billski]

Vail and Beaver Creek $129 lift tickets...no more words necassary.

That's cause Lindsey lives there. :roll:

Impressive. I lost interest at 105.

03-04	04-05	05-06	06-07	07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12
$ 73		$ 81	nfs	$ 89	$ 97	$98	$ 108	$ 105

 

[thetrailboss]

That's cause Lindsey lives there. :roll:

Impressive. I lost interest at 105.

03-04	04-05	05-06	06-07	07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12
$ 73		$ 81	nfs	$ 89	$ 97	$98	$ 108	$ 105

They decreased from $108 to $105?

 

[billski]

Vail raises it up to mark it down..\ - buy 7 days in advance and it's $109. Such a deal!


What is the Lowest Price Guarantee?
It’s simple! When you purchase your lift tickets to Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, Keystone, Heavenly, Northstar, or Kirkwood in advance through one of the Vail Resorts Official Ticket Outlets (this website or by calling a Vail Resorts reservation center) you are guaranteed the best price on our lift tickets. See Terms and Conditions below.

1. Lowest Price Guarantee. The guarantee applies if you purchase a lift ticket 7 days in advance for Vail, Beaver Creek, Breck, Keystone or 3 days in advance for Heavenly, Northstar and Kirkwood through one of the Vail Resorts Official Ticket Outlets. Find a lower online rate at any U.S.-based website prior to your first day of skiing. This Lowest Price Guarantee is subject to these terms and conditions.

 

[billski]

They decreased from $108 to $105?

Yeah. It was a strange one. I think they were testing consumer sensitivity to online purchase that year. I'm absitively sure that number is right. I triple-checked oddities like this.

 

[thetrailboss]

Yeah. It was a strange one. I think they were testing consumer sensitivity to online purchase that year. I'm absitively sure that number is right. I triple-checked oddities like this.

So they'd be in the good list for you then since they dropped the price, right?

And I think folks appreciate what you've done but have made some good points. The biggest one I think is to only consider the holiday day rate when very few folks pay that. Granted you are right that the average Joe who skis a few days a year and goes on MLK day will pay it.

I also agree that the one-year price rise is also potentially a skewed barometer. I think that comparing overall price would be slightly better and that is because you criticize places like Pats Peak for a 2-3% increase while not commenting on $92 Stowe ticket.

 

[bigbog]

The list is fine for data, but providing the median income/state and mileage from, say Boston..(where my experience shooting up to Sugarloaf back in the day)...offers a little more information pointing to where NH and VT operators are far more friendly in their pricing than Boyne(@Sugarloaf) is.
My $.01...to why Boyne is too high. The place is often deserted on some days midweek...it never was like this back in the day. No reason for NH, VT, or MA residents to come...imho, except for big dumps or a special trip(ie AZ's).

 

[BenedictGomez]

Yeah, it's 7 years. I didn't update the title! Now I have to go back and rerun the cpi and avg wage. Too lazy right now.

I started by only collecting holiday rates for a number of years. At the time, I was only interested in the most expensive rate out there. Since then, I've been doing things with the data I never intended.

I think it's a pretty cool reference, if for nothing else historical reasons. Since you have 9 years data, go with 9 years inflation, because in recent years inflation has been relatively low (and God help us all once that changes), so if you added in those oldest few years with the >3% inflation rates, it would make the mountains seem a little "better" from a pricing perspective.

 

[billski]

You're right; it would only be fair to use a multi year trend for increases. The other thing that would be interesting to track is a correlation with capital investment. In the east, it's probably more about resort-to-resort price competition.

Gross generalizations of CPI and average salary increase are a flawed, but lazily easy way for a slug like me to compare periods of time. The US Labor dept. has such detailed breakdown by socio, geographic,and labor types.industries that a socioeconomic analysis would be a great PhD theisis. Maybe not

Agreed that if someone hasn't changed a price for sometime doesn't make it any more or less villainous and that's why I throw in the chart of ticket prices. At some point, everyone but the most affluent draw a line on that list. For me, I'll draw the line based on the discount I get.

While Stowe only increases rates about once every five years, The rate is so exceeding high that I limit my time there to the number of lift vouchers I can scarf up. As I mention on my web page, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

What's kind of sad is that there are fewer and fewer places that have prices within the economic viability of many families.

This reminds me of product evaluations on Amazon, etc. You have judge for yourself the accuracy and worthiness of each evaluation and make up your own mind. Also like ski magazine, picking the "best" equipment of the year. There's lots of damn fine equipment that never makes their pages.

While we can say that many people don't ski because it's cold, the wimp factor, the trek and on and on, I'll argue that affordability is probably the biggest reason people stay away. With all the discounts we dig up, I doubt that my bottom-feeding is having any significant dent in the resort top line. The resorts know what they are doing. All of these programs have limits on them.

Agreed to all the points made. Notice though how none of us gets job offers from the industry? If I worked in the business it wouldn't be fun anymore.

Keep up the dialog. In the spring I'll have a more accurate accounting of things.

 

[riverc0il]

I would never put Cannon in the hall of shame for a $70 lift ticket.Along with JPWildcat and Smuggs,it is the cheapest big mountain ticket in the east.

Don't forget about Saddleback, Burke, Pico, and Magic...

 

[billski]

The skis have been hung up. Now It's time for spreadsheets and numbers. And taking off the snow tires

Have fun!