1/26 Manitoba Mauler

[Boston Bulldog]

Manitoba maulers are very rare, but if they blow up, boy do they blow up. Sunday Night the first Mauler of the season is going to exit off the East Coast and undergo bombogenesis. Originally it was looking like it would get shoved out to sea due to leftover vorticity from the current storm, but the most recent EURO run says hold your horses.



Now this storm is still a little too far south for the big New England ski areas, but it is right on the doorstep. Maulers are extremely explosive and have ignited storms such as 1/27/11, 2/7-8/13 and 1/22/05 among many others. With today's system acting as a 50/50 block this one could stay with us for a while, unlike today's racer. It all depends on how far we can reel this one in and how quickly the Mauler looses its mind.

 

[Tin]

Love how we go to bed with nothing and wake up to a blizzard.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Also a note on the above map, the snowfall amounts there are based on 10:1 ratios. Due to the cold temperatures I would expect 15:1 ratios or possibly higher.

 

[Tin]

Oh hello NAM....

 

[Not Sure]

Something in the works Friday too?

 

[BenedictGomez]

This thing is going to be too far east to do any good for ski country.

Pretty much a miss for virtually every eastern area, and only the Euro has it this far west in the first place. The other models have it snowing on dolphins and tuna.

Scott Norwood storm.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I just ran the GFS and the Canuck to show how OTS this likely is.

GFS

Canadian

EDIT: May as well throw in the NAM too.

NAM

 

[Tin]

Something in the works Friday too?

Yes but another southern deal as of now. But given what happened over night anything is possible lol

 

[Boston Bulldog]

EDIT: May as well throw in the NAM too.

NAM

Watch the NAM until the end of the run. It says Blizzard.

 

[Tin]

NAM just went 1978....or full retard.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

I'm starting to run the 12z GFS. The mauler is digging for gold in the trough and is way west of its 6z position

Latest RGEM (Canadian) looks ready to pop one too.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I'm starting to run the 12z GFS. The mauler is digging for gold in the trough and is way west of its 6z position

How far west (I'm out and cant run them) though? We need like 200 miles in just over 48 hours!

 

[Boston Bulldog]

It swung about 100 miles west. What an atrocious model.

 

[Tin]

GFS is really digging. No matter what it is closed in the Ohio River Valley.





BOMB

 

[Boston Bulldog]

From Amwx

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Talk about a beaut. Let's keep that juju rolling.

 

[billski]

FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN AND THE FIRST TO SHOW IT. MUCH OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IS STILL WAY SOUTHEAST AND PRETTY MUCH A MISS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WAS JUST A HICCUP OR IF THE
ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ARE ONTO SOMETHING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

 

[billski]

This thing is going to be too far east to do any good for ski country.

Pretty much a miss for virtually every eastern area, and only the Euro has it this far west in the first place. The other models have it snowing on dolphins and tuna.

Scott Norwood storm.

Not entirely onboard with that one. My money, for the moment is that So. VT will win something...

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Possibly the biggest model run of the winter is going on right now. I'm at 30 hours on the EURO and it has closed off over the Ohio valley

EURO looks like it want to mine.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

EURO goes KABOOM!

It ticked west and got a lot more ski area in play.