12/31 - ??? Storm Discussion Thread

[psyflyer]

Burke got over a foot and in some slopes up top it was more like a foot and half. Rode all morning (Doug's, Dippers, Ledges, Bear Den, couple of Glades, Terrain Park) and it was a blast. It stopped snowing around 930am and just started again about 30 minutes ago. Good start to the new year.

 

[Edd]

Skied Cranmore in North Conway this morning and they got less than a few inches overnight, and there was virtually no wind. Weird. There was talk about Bretton Woods getting hammered only 30 minutes away. I'm checking them out on Tuesday and hitting SR tomorrow.

 

[nelsapbm]

Record breaking snowfall in Burlington....32 inches. 21 inches at my house.

 

[wa-loaf]

The storm seems to have made it over to England:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34706351/ns/world_news-europe/

 

[WinnChill]

The storm seems to have made it over to England:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34706351/ns/world_news-europe/

Not to split hairs or anything, but as a weather guy, I like to help provide more insight into how the weather world works. I know you're innocently showing how England is getting hit with winter weather too, but, technically, it actually wasn't our historic storm that hit England. Just pointing out that our storm never made it across the pond...it stalled and is still hovering nearby although in a much weakened state. The pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere threw the brakes on everything and it actually backpedaled a bit (edged westward) the past few days. England's trough dropped in from the north/northeast so it was an entirely different animal. That's all. Thanks for obliging me Wa-loaf! Guess when the storms quiet down there's not much else to talk about. Cheers!

 

[wa-loaf]

Yeah, I was just making the connection without really looking into it. Busted.

Anyway skiing in Scotland must be pretty good right now ...

 

[4aprice]

Winnchill:

You seem to have good insight on the pattern, so I'll throw a couple of questions your way.

After this shot of Artic air this weekend it looks as though things will moderate or relax a bit. 1. Do you think the pattern will reload? 2. Storms like to develop as cold either arrives or departs, is there the chance for a storm as this current colder period wanes?

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[WinnChill]

Yeah, I was just making the connection without really looking into it. Busted.QUOTE]

I hear ya--I knew what you meant. Thanks for the heads up about it. Cheers!

 

[WinnChill]

Winnchill:

You seem to have good insight on the pattern, so I'll throw a couple of questions your way.

After this shot of Artic air this weekend it looks as though things will moderate or relax a bit. 1. Do you think the pattern will reload? 2. Storms like to develop as cold either arrives or departs, is there the chance for a storm as this current colder period wanes?

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

I don't see a whole lot to get too excited about--the pattern has been so amplified lately that it seems it will, like you said, relax a little. Some of the pattern indicators we look at were off the chart recently with all the storminess but they seem to be heading in the opposite direction for next week--it looks pretty calm for the most part--perhaps something for the weekend of the 16th/17th so will keep watch on that one. I'm still trying to grasp this long range thing too. I'll try to keep you posted here. DrJeff has been helping with that too, so kudos to him.

 

[BLESS]

Not to split hairs or anything, but as a weather guy, I like to help provide more insight into how the weather world works. I know you're innocently showing how England is getting hit with winter weather too, but, technically, it actually wasn't our historic storm that hit England. Just pointing out that our storm never made it across the pond...it stalled and is still hovering nearby although in a much weakened state. The pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere threw the brakes on everything and it actually backpedaled a bit (edged westward) the past few days. England's trough dropped in from the north/northeast so it was an entirely different animal. That's all. Thanks for obliging me Wa-loaf! Guess when the storms quiet down there's not much else to talk about. Cheers!

geez, who pissed in your cheerios?

 

[wa-loaf]

geez, who pissed in your cheerios?

Meh, I jumped to a conclusion. He corrected me. No biggie.

 

[WinnChill]

Nobody, why? Just explaining the technicalities of a simple weather pattern, that's all. Jeez, where'd you get that I was PO'd????

 

[WinnChill]

Meh, I jumped to a conclusion. He corrected me. No biggie.

It's all good Wa Loaf...now let's go hit the slopes. Cheers!

 

[drjeff]

I don't see a whole lot to get too excited about--the pattern has been so amplified lately that it seems it will, like you said, relax a little. Some of the pattern indicators we look at were off the chart recently with all the storminess but they seem to be heading in the opposite direction for next week--it looks pretty calm for the most part--perhaps something for the weekend of the 16th/17th so will keep watch on that one. I'm still trying to grasp this long range thing too. I'll try to keep you posted here. DrJeff has been helping with that too, so kudos to him.

Thanks WinnChill.

Yup, I agree that we look to be pretty quiet now for the next say 10+ days or so. Best way for folks to conceptually visualize what's going on (or not going on) over the Northeast for the forseeable future is to think of a tire mounted on your car. The active part of the storm track the majority of the time is where the tread of the tire is (on the periphery), right now, we have the axel smack dab over us, and that keeps us quiet and away from the active storm track. Pretty much all it looks like we'll be seeing for a while is oscillations in the extent of how cold the cold air will be over us.

From a ski area perspective, what the first say 1/2 of January should do, is allow the majority of ski areas to make their target quantities of snow over much of their terrain , and for some areas that will be it for their snowmaking for the year, and for many that will switch them from an active base building mode to an as needed for recovery/touch up mode.

 

[KingM]

While I'd love to have some fresh snow, we're in good enough shape that I'd absolutely take a quiet week or so over the typical January thaw. Even the little snow showers that are coming through are enough to keep things freshened up.

 

[polski]

Just pointing out that our storm never made it across the pond...it stalled and is still hovering nearby although in a much weakened state. The pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere threw the brakes on everything and it actually backpedaled a bit (edged westward) the past few days.

This situation actually provided me a great opportunity to apply what (little) I know about meteorology into the destination-selection process, with a very satisfactory outcome. I knew that low had stalled to our north and that, while weakened, it still meant things were "upside-down," with warmer temps to the north, at least in upper levels of the atmosphere. Early Monday morning as I was getting ready to depart for Burke, I did a last-minute weather check and saw the NWS was talking about freezing drizzle in N and central VT but not in the south, which made sense given the "upside-down" situation. Also I knew freezing drizzle is not elevation-dependent - temps were below freezing at the surface everywhere but above freezing at higher levels of the atmosphere in the north, so up north any liquid precip (rain/drizzle) would freeze as it landed, no matter what altitude.

So, as I mentioned in my TR, I changed my plans and hit Magic instead. I did this mainly so I wouldn't encounter nasty driving conditions on the ride up but I've seen a couple reports indicating there was enough freezing drizzle to create a crust on the skiing surface at Smuggs and MRG at least. Maybe Burke didn't get hit with that but there definitely was no such problem at Magic.

 

[polski]

Since this thread's title got changed to the ??? at the end, I guess we don't need a separate "Boring Weather Pattern" thread ... though I'd definitely take cold+boring over the kinds of crap January often brings. And a little light snow today doesn't hurt.

Maybe things'll get more active next weekend.