2/15-2/18. A New Hope or We are Screwed.

[from_the_NEK]

Mt Washington between Saturday evening and Tuesday will have temps in the -30's (windchills in the -90s!) and then rain.
Not too many placed on Earth can pull that off in 48 hours.

 

[ChicoKat]

Guys I am a bit new to this. I enjoy following these threads and might have actually learned something. I just saw this and it seems favorable but I might have no idea wtf I'm talking about.

Then this right over the canal

 

[Tin]

Yes, another big shift SE. EURO won't budge but given we are 4-5 days out it could start ticking east...or it is just flat out wrong. The system is also much weaker.

 

[Rowsdower]

I'll take whatever at this point.

 

[skibumski]

8-12 inches for all of ski country would be considered a nice haul any other winter... unfortunately we're in quite a hole. Hopefully this is more or less on point and we get some follow up to bring some terrain into play.

All in all, today looks a lot more favorable than yesterday did, and that's good enough for me.

 

[JDMRoma]

8-12 in NH ski country works for me !
It would certainly help ! But there is zero base in the woods right now !!



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[BenedictGomez]

That 18z GFS follows the Canadian and it's as good as we can hope for. I'd take less or no snow as a trade for no typhoon. The Euro/Ukie are way west though, and represent a mess.

 

[JimG.]

Soon it may be time for a mid-week trip to the loaf. It is becoming my last hope.

 

[180]

Soon it may be time for a mid-week trip to the loaf. It is becoming my last hope.

At the Loaf now. 12" and the place would be "open"

 

[Not Sure]

But there is zero base in the woods right now !!



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Turned my new skis into rock skis in one run this year.

 

[ss20]

GFS comes WEST quite a bit (it's back on-shore). More snow and more cold deeper into ski country. More rain in the southern regions. Win/lose situation... win for big mountain skiing, lose for the local hills in the flatlands that rely on this week. Central VT and NH get a foot+, Southern VT on the fringe... the Catskills could do better than Sunday River.

 

[mriceyman]

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[BenedictGomez]

GFS comes WEST quite a bit (it's back on-shore). More snow and more cold deeper into ski country. More rain in the southern regions. Win/lose situation... win for big mountain skiing, lose for the local hills in the flatlands that rely on this week. Central VT and NH get a foot+, Southern VT on the fringe... the Catskills could do better than Sunday River.

You're interpreting the model wrong.

New Hampshire is an absolute pain train on that run. Absolute deluge of rain with very little snow. Southern Vermont almost as bad. Poconos and Berks are screwed too. Cats okay, but dancing on the fault line.

 

[BenedictGomez]

00z Canuck isnt done running, but I can tell it's going to be similar to the 00z GFS, it came west too.

Maine gets pain and despair, huge L goes right over the mountains.

New Hampshire gets pounded with rain too.

Around 9'ish hours of sleet/ice in Berks.

Cats & Poconos amazingly somehow come out unscathed, but both right on the fault-line.

Vermont does well with snow. ADK sees some snow, not too much.

EDIT: Just for fun, the snowmaps are now out. Biggest winners would be Burke at about 20" and Plattekill and Magic at about 17". Of course, with this sort of storm, the way you get the modeled jackpot is by being very close to the modeled disaster. So......

 

[catsup948]

Hard to pin point this one. 0z GFS and Canadian were very similae in track and intensity. But 0z Euro is still west and the 6z GFS is weaker more east. This could still take a couple more days to figure out.

 

[ss20]

View attachment 18989

You're interpreting the model wrong.

New Hampshire is an absolute pain train on that run. Absolute deluge of rain with very little snow. Southern Vermont almost as bad. Poconos and Berks are screwed too. Cats okay, but dancing on the fault line.

mriceyman's map disagree's with you BG. Central NH and Central VT do great.

 

[catsup948]

UKmet, meteofrance, euro and Japan models all west. American and Canadain models more east.

 

[Tin]

Freezing rain could be a serious issue in western/central parts CT the first half of this storm according to the GFS.

NAM says southern VT/NH...

 

[BenedictGomez]

mriceyman's map disagree's with you BG.

Central NH and Central VT do great.

The "accumulated snowfall map" moniker is a terrible name, because it gives people the false impression that that's actually what it means. It doesn't. A better name would be "precipitation when it's sortof close to or below 32 degrees map".

You cant just look at a map of modeled snow output and think that's how much snow you'll get, you have to understand what's going on throughout the entire air column and how it moves during the event.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Hard to pin point this one. 0z GFS and Canadian were very similae in track and intensity. But 0z Euro is still west and the 6z GFS is weaker more east. This could still take a couple more days to figure out.

Just looked at that, a supersoaker for the coastal areas, and much ado about nothing elsewhere. That seems odd, wonder if it's the off-run wonkiness showing up and 12z will be pretty different.

And it appears the 00z Euro and 00z Ukie are still terrible.