2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[Moe Ghoul]

More polar vortex, please. There's one right now dropping temps to seasonally below averages. If we can't get 500" of snow I'll settle with 300 " and the cold to preserve it.

 

[jack97]

I guess they are just reporting the data. The same data as the US sites actually, so not that surprising. BTW, thanks for sharing that site I hadn't checked it out before. I have to admit, knowing your previous take on this issue I thought when you said "unprecedented" it was probably going to be some wacky website with a twisted data. But this is a pretty good site that shows the same arctic sea ice loss that everyone else is reporting. I was (pleasantly) surprised to find that you are now looking at the same data as everyone else. Kudos to you for being open to coming around on this. It really is pretty wild to see this rapid ice loss and it certainly is unprecedented in modern terms.

lol.... I haven't come around on this.

It's funny that people can see the same data sets and come up with different conclusions. The camp that states natural causes would say the data is supporting this theory. They had been saying this for well over 20 years.



And just so you know, I am an environmentalist, but this AGW has no scientific foundation. What is troubling is that it has taken research away from addressing true environmental issues.

 

[bigbog]

It's a little longer flight Jack97....it's the AustrALIAN Alps, not the Austrian Alps:lol:!... But that accumulation is great to look at wherever..

 

[Cannonball]

It's a little longer flight Jack97....it's the AustrALIAN Alps, not the Austrian Alps:lol:!... But that accumulation is great to look at wherever..

 

[St. Bear]

Today is, on average, the warmest day of the year. Starting tomorrow, the Northern Hemisphere begins cooling. Countdown to winter has begun.

 

[jack97]

It's a little longer flight Jack97....it's the AustrALIAN Alps, not the Austrian Alps:lol:!... But that accumulation is great to look at wherever..

haha..... got what I deserved for posting when I should be finishing some work.

here's what I meant about the alps... the french alps.


http://www.thelocal.fr/20140710/in-pictures-french-alps-get-summer-snow

 

[fbrissette]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/12/coldest-antarctic-june-ever-recorded/
Coldest June on record .Any French speaking readers, please clarify the additional sunlight question. I don't see how they get additional sunlight , maybe they're refering to lack of cloud cover?

The word 'insolation' means number of hours with direct sunlight (no cloud cover). 11.8 hours of sun instead of the average 7.4. They get close to 24 hours of daylight at this time of the year.

To those who did not read the link, it is the coldest June on record for ONE weather station in Antarctica. It is important to note that globally (including Antarctica), June 2014 was the third warmest on record, following the warmest May ever.

 

[fbrissette]

but this AGW has no scientific foundation.

Trying to get this topic back on track. Since you're the science guy, can you show us the science that proves that you can predict next winter conditions 6 months ahead with any skill for the Northeast ? (by skill I mean anything better than random).

You won't find the science because it does not exist. Even by October, nobody can predict the amount of snow for the next 5 months better than random in the North-east. Information like that would be worth somewhere in the 100 millions per year range for Hydro-Quebec only (13 blllions in revenues from hydropower in Quebec only), so believe me they've looked pretty hard. The seasonal forecasts are getting better but they have no skill yet in the north east. Weather analogues are no better.

These forecasts are fun but don't pretend there is any science behind it.

 

[fbrissette]

Getting back on track - El Niño effects the west our weather comes for the northwest, west and southwest so in effect what happens out west can possibly have an impact on the northeast due to the jet stream!


.......

That's in theory. In practice it does not happen that way.

 

[Not Sure]

The word 'insolation' means number of hours with direct sunlight (no cloud cover). 11.8 hours of sun instead of the average 7.4. They get close to 24 hours of daylight at this time of the year.

To those who did not read the link, it is the coldest June on record for ONE weather station in Antarctica. It is important to note that globally (including Antarctica), June 2014 was the third warmest on record, following the warmest May ever.

Pretty much what I thought regarding cloudcover

"They get close to 24hrs of daylight at this time of year" .............It's Winter in the Antartic ,don't you mean darkness?
Below the circle
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/89606.html

 

[fbrissette]

Pretty much what I thought regarding cloudcover

"They get close to 24hrs of daylight at this time of year" .............It's Winter in the Antartic ,don't you mean darkness?
Below the circle
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/89606.html

oops... Just got my Australian alps moment. The station is roughly at 67 degrees south. So that would be 11.8 hours of sun for the full month...

 

[Tin]

I don't understand how "climate" and "weather" are used interchangeably.

 

[Cannonball]

I don't understand how "climate" and "weather" are used interchangeably.

Then you are ahead of the game. That is only done by people who understand neither climate nor weather.

 

[jack97]

Trying to get this topic back on track. Since you're the science guy, can you show us the science that proves that you can predict next winter conditions 6 months ahead with any skill for the Northeast ? (by skill I mean anything better than random).

You won't find the science because it does not exist. Even by October, nobody can predict the amount of snow for the next 5 months better than random in the North-east. Information like that would be worth somewhere in the 100 millions per year range for Hydro-Quebec only (13 blllions in revenues from hydropower in Quebec only), so believe me they've looked pretty hard. The seasonal forecasts are getting better but they have no skill yet in the north east. Weather analogues are no better.

These forecasts are fun but don't pretend there is any science behind it.

You then know that weather is a chaotic process hence it long term prediction are difficult at best. Given so, historical records both from nature and man shows the weather and climate have many cycles. The problem is identifying these cycles and when they will match up. So analogs are still valid with that respect. In addition, they may be better predictor than climate models.

And in terms if AGW not having any scientific foundation, all measured data have shown man made co2 emissions have not caused temps rise nor sea level rise. Until that happens its still political dogma.

 

[jack97]

I don't understand how "climate" and "weather" are used interchangeably.

By NASA's definition; Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time.


The problem will be the lengths of time. The climate models are close to losing its 90% confidence levels as a result of the pause. Proponents will be arguing that a 20 year period is not long enough to determine climate.

Others argue that even so, the other causes of for GW have not been seen.

 

[fbrissette]

Proponents will be arguing that a 20 year period is not long enough to determine climate.

Climate is defined as a 30-year average of meteorological conditions (This is the World Meterological Organisation standard and has been so for a very long time).

 

[fbrissette]

So analogs are still valid with that respect. In addition, they may be better predictor than climate models.

Analogs are used in WEATHER forecasting. They cannot be better or worse than CLIMATE models. They are NOT used for the same thing.

I never said that analogs are useless. I said they are useless for seasonal forecasts in the north-east. Analogs can be very useful for short-term forecasts (and by short-term I mean a few days ahead).

 

[Abubob]

The global warming "conspiracy" goes so deep you didn't even know you were involved. That's some sinister shit. Now your eyes are open, my friend.

Oh yes! "I shouted out who killed the Kennedys but after all it was you and me."

 

[Abubob]

I don't understand how "climate" and "weather" are used interchangeably.

Beats the crap out of me.

weather |ˈweT͟Hər|
noun
the state of the atmosphere at a place and time as regards heat, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc.


climate |ˈklīmit|
noun
the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period

 

[Tin]

Then you are ahead of the game. That is only done by people who understand neither climate nor weather.

It's quite common to see in these threads.