loafer89
New member
And now we tune in for the latest long range model flip/flop:
Surprise twist in the Long Range Model
Friday, December 21, 2007
The latest European model long range weekly outlook was released today, and after being very consistent from week to week with the forecasted pattern across North America it has now changed its tune to some extent. This could mean that the model may be on to something new going on with the pattern over the next several weeks, or the model is having a very hard time figuring out what is going on, which does not give the forecaster much confidence. I think we will have to see what next week's update shows in order to determine if the changes that it is showing through January have some merit, since it contradicts the monthly forecast which was released a week ago. Here is my interpretation of what the model is forecasting over the next several weeks...........
The week of Dec 31-Jan 6th
The computer model is forecasting a fairly strong Pacific jet stream into the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. which will spread Pacific air across much of the Lower 48 and southern Canada during the week, while the Arctic air remains trapped over Alaska and northern Canada. This type of pattern would lead to above-normal precipitation for British Columbia. A second storm track would probably run from the southern U.S. Plains to the eastern Great Lakes of Northeastern U.S., but the model is showing some weak blocking over Labrador, which could force that storm track farther south. Overall, with the exception of BC and southern Ontario, this week looks drier than normal over much of Canada. Temperature wise, with the Arctic air locked up, you would expect near to above-normal temperatures from the Prairies to Atlantic Canada. Keep in mind, this not my forecast, I am just relaying what the model forecast seems to be showing from this particular update.
The week of Jan 7th-13th
Surprise, surprise.......The model seems to have thrown a monkey wrench into what was a very consistent forecast through January. Now, it is forecasting a building ridge of high pressure aloft (warm/dry pocket in the upper levels of the atmosphere) over the western U.S. and extending up into southwestern Canada, while at the same time showing a trough (cold pocket aloft) over eastern Canada and into the Northeast U.S. which is certainly something I was not expecting to see. If the model is on to something then you should expect to see drier and milder conditions across southwestern BC and through the western prairies. This flip in the pattern would favor a return to clipper-type storm systems dropping southeastward from the northern prairies into the Great Lakes and Northeastern U.S., then redeveloping off the coast and being a potential threat to Atlantic Canada. This pattern would also allow some of the very cold air from the Hudson Bay region to drop into eastern Canada and even some into the Northeast U.S.. I am still very skeptical of this solution and would like to see one more update showing this before I get more confident with it.
Surprise twist in the Long Range Model
Friday, December 21, 2007
The latest European model long range weekly outlook was released today, and after being very consistent from week to week with the forecasted pattern across North America it has now changed its tune to some extent. This could mean that the model may be on to something new going on with the pattern over the next several weeks, or the model is having a very hard time figuring out what is going on, which does not give the forecaster much confidence. I think we will have to see what next week's update shows in order to determine if the changes that it is showing through January have some merit, since it contradicts the monthly forecast which was released a week ago. Here is my interpretation of what the model is forecasting over the next several weeks...........
The week of Dec 31-Jan 6th
The computer model is forecasting a fairly strong Pacific jet stream into the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. which will spread Pacific air across much of the Lower 48 and southern Canada during the week, while the Arctic air remains trapped over Alaska and northern Canada. This type of pattern would lead to above-normal precipitation for British Columbia. A second storm track would probably run from the southern U.S. Plains to the eastern Great Lakes of Northeastern U.S., but the model is showing some weak blocking over Labrador, which could force that storm track farther south. Overall, with the exception of BC and southern Ontario, this week looks drier than normal over much of Canada. Temperature wise, with the Arctic air locked up, you would expect near to above-normal temperatures from the Prairies to Atlantic Canada. Keep in mind, this not my forecast, I am just relaying what the model forecast seems to be showing from this particular update.
The week of Jan 7th-13th
Surprise, surprise.......The model seems to have thrown a monkey wrench into what was a very consistent forecast through January. Now, it is forecasting a building ridge of high pressure aloft (warm/dry pocket in the upper levels of the atmosphere) over the western U.S. and extending up into southwestern Canada, while at the same time showing a trough (cold pocket aloft) over eastern Canada and into the Northeast U.S. which is certainly something I was not expecting to see. If the model is on to something then you should expect to see drier and milder conditions across southwestern BC and through the western prairies. This flip in the pattern would favor a return to clipper-type storm systems dropping southeastward from the northern prairies into the Great Lakes and Northeastern U.S., then redeveloping off the coast and being a potential threat to Atlantic Canada. This pattern would also allow some of the very cold air from the Hudson Bay region to drop into eastern Canada and even some into the Northeast U.S.. I am still very skeptical of this solution and would like to see one more update showing this before I get more confident with it.
