Christmas eve Noreaster

[watchoutbelow]

Take one for the team and wait until it snows. :roll:

Don't worry, I'll make up for him putting his snow tires on. I blew out one of my snow tires towards the end of last winter and the replacement is still on back order. Won't get it until after new years. So I'm going to be sliding everywhere.

 

[billski]

You know, I've gotta travel to see inlaws next week. Skiing is not an option. I'll let the base building begin, come back and you can tell me where to go. If you haven't already.

 

[WinnChill]

Our Christmas Eve storm may not happen. Too many moving pieces--one gets out of place, the whole operation falls apart. We'll be watching Friday for some light snow but even this one seems weak and light. At least it remains cold for snowmaking efforts to continue from Thurs thru the weekend--not the best but it's all we got .

 

[nekweather]

Our Christmas Eve storm may not happen. Too many moving pieces--one gets out of place, the whole operation falls apart. We'll be watching Friday for some light snow but even this one seems weak and light. At least it remains cold for snowmaking efforts to continue from Thurs thru the weekend--not the best but it's all we got .

I agree with WinnChill - It's essentially the only storm we can hang an ounce of hope on, but things will have to come together perfectly to make it happen....

The way I see it right now, is we'll have disturbance trekking across the Great Lakes Thursday that will hold some of the ingredients - cold air and energy. At the same time, a frontal boundary will either slowly align with the Appalachians or completely stall out providing the pathway for moisture from the south. A surface low should develop south of New England just as a cold front sags south from Canada with reinforced cold air at all levels. It'll be all about timing at this point...we'll want to see the low develop soon enough to tap the southern stream of moisture, and hopefully be a slow mover to allow cold air to filter in from the north and maximizing snow potential. Track will also be a big question and this is where things are already going south....As of this morning, the GFS and Euro have it skirting south of northern New England- (me pounding my desk) but I'm going to stupidly remain optimistic... hoping later guidance will dial in a better track as the 0 hour approaches.

Check out the Green Grass at our Snow Stake : http://www.nekweather.net/wxSnowcam.php

 

[WinnChill]

I agree with WinnChill - It's essentially the only storm we can hang an ounce of hope on, but things will have to come together perfectly to make it happen....

The way I see it right now, is we'll have disturbance trekking across the Great Lakes Thursday that will hold some of the ingredients - cold air and energy. At the same time, a frontal boundary will either slowly align with the Appalachians or completely stall out providing the pathway for moisture from the south. A surface low should develop south of New England just as a cold front sags south from Canada with reinforced cold air at all levels. It'll be all about timing at this point...we'll want to see the low develop soon enough to tap the southern stream of moisture, and hopefully be a slow mover to allow cold air to filter in from the north and maximizing snow potential. Track will also be a big question and this is where things are already going south....As of this morning, the GFS and Euro have it skirting south of northern New England- (me pounding my desk) but I'm going to stupidly remain optimistic... hoping later guidance will dial in a better track as the 0 hour approaches.

Check out the Green Grass at our Snow Stake : http://www.nekweather.net/wxSnowcam.php

Since you took some fire recently, I figured I'd post the bad news this time! hehe! Teamwork, right?

Yeah, let's hope for Friday. Even though it looks cold enough for snow, it just looks so dynamically weak that it'll be tough to get much out of it...but we'll take it I guess.

 

[nekweather]

Since you took some fire recently, I figured I'd post the bad news this time! hehe! Teamwork, right?

Yeah, let's hope for Friday. Even though it looks cold enough for snow, it just looks so dynamically weak that it'll be tough to get much out of it...but we'll take it I guess.

Seems to come with the territory round here...if you don't have snow to report, your going to get flak. But it's all in good fun! Fingers crossed that this will be the last bit of bad news for a little while...

 

[drjeff]

Friday is looking like, at best, a "Nor'couple of incher" for say mainly central New England. And Christmas day right now is looking more like a "NOT' easter" Atleast it looks like the cold air will be present for the vast majority of ski country far more out of the next 10 or so days than it won't, so that's a step in the right direction!

 

[hammer]

Any more info on the timing and amount on Friday? Hoping to go to Wachusett that day...more concerned about travel impacts then anything else.

 

[WinnChill]

Any more info on the timing and amount on Friday? Hoping to go to Wachusett that day...more concerned about travel impacts then anything else.

Generally late Thurs night/Friday AM. Mixing line probably running through MA but Wachusett could benefit on the snowy side--probably at or just under half a foot or so depending where that mixing line is but the AM commute will be pretty sketchy.

 

[billski]

Thanks for the brutal honesty guys. Think I'll either go bowling or play some croquet today.

 

[Bostonian]

Generally late Thurs night/Friday AM. Mixing line probably running through MA but Wachusett could benefit on the snowy side--probably at or just under half a foot or so depending where that mixing line is but the AM commute will be pretty sketchy.

Hey I would take 6 inches at my home mountain. I haven't had a chance to get out there this season yet, so maybe saturday night may not be a bad thing.

 

[ScottySkis]

Any chance of Ny Catskills getting some white stuff?

 

[WinnChill]

Any chance of Ny Catskills getting some white stuff?

About the same chance as the Berks/N MA....all snow but just on the fringe. But we'll watch for storm track changes today/tomorrow.

 

[St. Bear]

About the same chance as the Berks/N MA....all snow but just on the fringe. But we'll watch for storm track changes today/tomorrow.

That's a lot better outlook than everything else I've read.

 

[WinnChill]

That's a lot better outlook than everything else I've read.

I should emphasize "fringe" as in between light accumulations and nothing at all. Could be bust potential there. We'll see.

 

[Greg]

Personally I prefer forecasts 2-3 days out that point to "not much". Those are the ones that normally blow up. The massive storms 3 days out always seem like the ones that bust.

 

[watchoutbelow]

Looks like we might either get some snow or ice in the middle part of next week as well.

 

[hammer]

Personally I prefer forecasts 2-3 days out that point to "not much". Those are the ones that normally blow up. The massive storms 3 days out always seem like the ones that bust.

I usually notice the same thing, but I also look at trends...and that's why I'm hopeful for Friday (provided timing doesn't screw things up) and I'm not expecting anything over the weekend.

 

[billski]

This is an interesting picture 1.5 days out

RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011

.THE HIGHER SUMMITS FORECAST FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...

.TONIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER
TEENS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SNOW
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. WEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

 

[billski]

And Gray Maine steps up