Christmas Week Weather

[skiberg]

Anyone have any idea on potential forecast or storms for the Christmas week???

 

[billski]

which week we talking about?
There are a couple threads going.for 26-27 and 21-22

 

[skiberg]

From Christmas day until after the new year. Looks like we might get a little bit of upslope snow from this current storm, but NWA is saying sleet over northern NH tomorrow. That is better than rain but will keep the totals down. Really want to know if anyone has insight on the potential for the storms right after Christmas.

 

[tarponhead]

In the Philly area, forecast dudes (weatherunderground.com) have their eye on a Christmas night to Sunday event. Models kinda pretty divergent right now but calling for either a "once in a century "La Nina" snow event or a bust non-event.... I could do that with a flip of the coin.

Fun all the same.

 

[Glenn]

Small rumblings about something Christmas day into day after Christmas...probably too early to tell.

 

[drjeff]

Small rumblings about something Christmas day into day after Christmas...probably too early to tell.

Bingo! This possible event will probably go through model wise what the last couple of events have done over the next few days. Go from "keep an eye on it" to "okay looking interesting" to all of the sudden "WOW! storm of the millenium!" to "well that model doesn't look nearly as good" to "cr@p it looks like it could miss" to "will we even get some flurries from this?" Doh! The joys of Eastern weather forcasting!

The good thing is that there's a TON of energy in the West now, and it's going to come East eventually with multiple reinforcements. So we just need to get things to head into the Northeast now

Sorry to quote myself, but the last couple of model runs are suggesting now that we're somewhere between the "okay this looks interesting" to "WOW! storm of the millenium" Only time (and a couple of hundred different model runs between now and then) will tell

 

[jrmagic]

C'mon ... there really is a Santa and he's gonna send a foot of fresh our way

 

[Madroch]

What I wouldn't give for a decent snow here in CT-- seems like we have been in a snow hole for quite a while... if that is just not going to happen, at least show our friends to the north some love so we can go visit!

 

[kingslug]

For whatever reason the rest of the world is getting slammed...England???

 

[drjeff]

Mega hype excitement starting model wise now(and remember the low that *could* turn into this storm is still about 36 hours away from coming onshore in California right now!) so alot WILL change over the next 5 to 6 days for sure!

This is ONE model run for next Monday. The low is pretty darn close to the benchmark 40N/70W for a big New England snow event. And the models have an estimated central pressure just slightly lower (stronger) than what Hurricane Gloria had when it came ashore on Long Island in '85!

Some precip estimates I've seen floating around (and remember this storm is still far out over the Pacific off the Southern California Coast right now) has 2+ inches of precip associated with it, and with the potential air mass around that could result in a 10:1 to 12:1 (inches of snow:inches of melted precip) ratio

 

[ZYDECORICH]

Mega hype excitement starting model wise now(and remember the low that *could* turn into this storm is still about 36 hours away from coming onshore in California right now!) so alot WILL change over the next 5 to 6 days for sure!

This is ONE model run for next Monday. The low is pretty darn close to the benchmark 40N/70W for a big New England snow event. And the models have an estimated central pressure just slightly lower (stronger) than what Hurricane Gloria had when it came ashore on Long Island in '85!

Some precip estimates I've seen floating around (and remember this storm is still far out over the Pacific off the Southern California Coast right now) has 2+ inches of precip associated with it, and with the potential air mass around that could result in a 10:1 to 12:1 (inches of snow:inches of melted precip) ratio

oh how i love those high 900 millibar low pressure systems. it would be like a bomb going off if things line up right.

 

[wa-loaf]

Stop teasing!

 

[Puck it]

I really need to some POW!!!!!

 

[snoseek]

I need pow just for the simple fact that I don't own a normal east coast ski and don't plan on buying any. It is time to get something going on this side of the country!

 

[gmcunni]

weather guy on tv (that's my primary source of info other than here) said this morning that new models don't look good for snow in NE next weekend.

 

[drjeff]

Unfortunately for the Northeast the last couple of model runs are starting to think (and keep thinking through successive model runs) that this storm may not end up tracking as far North as it was looking like it would this time yesterday, so we'll see. The models are still though showing that this storm could be a real powerfull one when it hits the waters off the East Coast, so gotta keep a close eye on things for later Sunday/Monday.

Please do remember though that the core of what could become this storm for the Northeast in 4 to 5 days will just come onshore in the LA/San Diego area today, so there's still alot that will be determined

 

[from_the_NEK]

Meanwhile, I'm still waiting to have to plow my driveway. Only 5 inches currently at my stake. So far this is shaping up a lot like last year when I only had to plow twice all winter and had a max 11 inches at my stake. :-x
Why doesn't everything just keep going south. :angry: 'Cause they really need the big storms in Baltimore and DC while I sit here in the cold with my five lousy inches and no powder days.






Man, I really need to get out and ski. Maybe I should go tomorrow or Friday. I just really need a good powder day. I'm a junkie who hasn't had a fix in a long time. You would think that after so long I would have kicked the habit. Screw that! I NEED this! :lol:

 

[drjeff]

Meanwhile, I'm still waiting to have to plow my driveway. Only 5 inches currently at my stake. So far this is shaping up a lot like last year when I only had to plow twice all winter and had a max 11 inches at my stake. :-x
Why doesn't everything just keep going south. :angry: 'Cause they really need the big storms in Baltimore and DC while I sit here in the cold with my five lousy inches and no powder days.

Short version. It's La Nina's fault! The Northeast is missing out right now because of what's going on (or better put NOT really going on) over basically Greenland right now

The usually dominant upper level steering currents that typically this time of year set up over Greenland and help steer systems upto the North (with respect to the East Coast) aren't particularly strong right now, especially compared the steering currents over the Northern Pacific that are helping drive systems in a basically West to East pattern So us New England snow lovers need to start rooting for "Team Greenland" right now to win the epic battle its in with "Team Northern Pacific"

 

[4aprice]

The bad news is La Nina and what DrJeff described very well. I've been worried about this since it was predicted back in the summer and yes its hard to watch the west get pounded day after day. Hopefully as this event fades the mega blocking will fade as well and the back end of the season will be awesome.

The good news is modern snowmaking. Back in the 70's when snowmaking was just getting up to speed a season like this would have been a total disaster and very limited. I can only speak for the Pocono region where we have had little more then a dusting this season but the conditions right now are great. Not only have they been pouring it on and building a mega base but the quality of snow they are shooting is wonderful. If we are to get any natural it will only make it better and on the down side bring out the hordes.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[snoseek]

Well so far I am happy that I bought the Boyne pass.