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Fly vs Drive: Break even point

BenedictGomez

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the panic fomented by humanity in general is disappointing. We like to scare the shit out of each other and I just don't buy into it. The folks dying from coronavirus are those who are sick already, very old or very young. They could just as easily die from influenza which on average 20,000 Americans die from every year.

Amen*.

South Korea is a modern, advanced healthcare nation, and it has the most robust & reliable COVID19 data to date, and their death rate is currently running at 0.65% (and their scientists think that's likely a bit too high due to non-counting of asymptomatic & mild cases).

In short, with no exaggeration, I do believe this is the most over-hyped hysteria I've seen in my life on this planet. If you're > 65, stay safe. If you're young & healthy with no serious comorbidities, this is really not a big deal.


* Amen with one exception, the "very young" are not dying from COVID19, and doctors have no idea why. There are competing theories as to why, but the answer is unknown. Until we know, let's just be glad kids are not dying from coronavirus.
 

abc

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I’m not sure what to think.

Like SARS, and unlike regular flu, it’s killed the young and strong too, albeit at a far lower rate. The old and sick had not even a prayer. It’s cleaning out nursing homes like a wild fire.

China was in a panic because many of its doctors were killed in the first month!

Now, it’s more clear what to do both to limit the spread and how to treat once infected. So the mortality rate has come down. China has now begun to relax its quarantines. We’ll soon see how that goes.

Like evacuation at the forecast of a hurricane, sometimes it blew itself out before landfall. And people were left wondering why bother in the first place.

The biggest fear is always the virus may mutate to a more dangerous form, given how contagious it is. But if it doesn’t get worse, you wonder why all the panic and chaos is really justified.
 

Edd

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Anecdotally, I do know of a few people who were down with a flu for a couple of weeks this year, which sounds a bit extreme. I do wonder..


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bdfreetuna

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Like SARS, and unlike regular flu, it’s killed the young and strong too, albeit at a far lower rate. The old and sick had not even a prayer. It’s cleaning out nursing homes like a wild fire.

Now, it’s more clear what to do both to limit the spread and how to treat once infected. So the mortality rate has come down. China has now begun to relax its quarantines. We’ll soon see how that goes.

The biggest fear is always the virus may mutate to a more dangerous form, given how contagious it is. But if it doesn’t get worse, you wonder why all the panic and chaos is really justified.

This is updated daily. You can see mortality rate broken down by age group, preexisting conditions, etc. Once you look at the data it's pretty clear Covid19 is almost a non-issue if you're not getting up in age with poor health already. I don't think it's accurate to say "it's killing the young and strong too".

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

There is also the issue of ACE2 receptors, blacks/Africans seemingly immune or nearly immune, and strong evidence in the genetic sequencing of being a weaponized virus in the first place. I suspect the virus has already been mutating to a less deadly form -- which is typically the course otherwise deadly viruses would just go extinct.

But anyway even without the speculation take a look at the stats.

Anecdotally, I do know of a few people who were down with a flu for a couple of weeks this year, which sounds a bit extreme. I do wonder..

I had a "wicked cold" about 6 weeks ago, had a fever for 5 days, coughing and sneezing like a mad lad (I remember commenting to my wife how determined that bug seemed to spread), and self quarantined myself. Like I bought sanitizer and used it on everything and worked out of my bedroom for a week. All I know is it wasn't a flu and for a cold it was unusual and severe. In fact I'm still coughing when I wake up in the morning and find myself a little short of breath occasionally. My family hasn't gotten sick in this time span. Now I'm not saying I had coronavirus, but it's definitely been a nagging suspicion.

What would happen if I went to the hospital and asked if I had coronavirus? They'd send me home and say there's no way to test it. So you either heal up or small chance you develop a severe respiratory issue, you return to the hospital.

Once the "fear" dies down I suspect is when we'll hear how many "cases" there really have been already.
 
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abc

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This is updated daily. You can see mortality rate broken down by age group, preexisting conditions, etc. Once you look at the data it's pretty clear Covid19 is almost a non-issue if you're not getting up in age with poor health already. I don't think it's accurate to say "it's killing the young and strong too".
Mortality ”rate” may look small in comparison between young and old. But it’s actually not that small at all. It is in fact inaccurate to say “almost a non-issue if you're not getting up in age with poor health already”.

Fact being, it killed many health workers in China, who were far from “up in age” never mind “with poor health already”.

SARS didn’t kill that many people either. But it killed some doctors and nurses who were neither old nor sick. THAT, is why this virus got the same attention while seasonal flu doesn’t. (and plenty of people felt the SARS scare unwarranted too)
 
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machski

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Shit, wish I would've waited to book. Booked a flight 4/4 to Denver leaving Scranton, an hour from home, for $480, it is now $200! Oh well, at least I'm using rewards points, so it isn't out of pocket. Now I just hope my trip isn't scrubbed due to the outbreak. Just checked prices for flying out of Binghamton, and for some reason it is $1,000. Hard to believe the difference is $800 from flying out of Scranton.

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Wait a bit, they will likely extend the no penalty to cancel beyond 3/31 fly date it is now.

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bdfreetuna

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"and strong evidence in the genetic sequencing of being a weaponized virus in the first place."

as in biological warfare?

source?

Tom Cotton mentioned the fact there is a Level 4 Bio lab in Wuhan. Feel free to explore that rabbit hole if you like.

Fact being, it killed many health workers in China, who were far from “up in age” never mind “with poor health already”.

Separate China/Wuhan cases from the rest of the world and the anomaly is striking. Again-- where are the masses of people going into convulsions? There's a secondary explanation that we don't know yet (and may never know).

BTW HHS said yesterday:

"The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1% and 1%," Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at HHS, says. "That's lower than you heard probably in many reports ... it's not likely in the range of 2 to 3%"
 

BenedictGomez

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Fact being, it killed many health workers in China, who were far from “up in age” never mind “with poor health already”.


Can you link the data to that, I'd like to see it? It goes against what I've been reviewing elsewhere & I dont believe it's true.

Frankly, the only data (today) that I statistically trust is the South Korean data for various reasons, and nobody < 30 has died there in the entire nation even though they have almost 7,000 total cases. Italy is less transparent than I'd like, but their average morality is 81 years old.
 

abc

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Erhh, it’s mostly in Chinese.

But I’ll see if I can find the English language source again (My goto for cross checking of rumors from China is scmp.com, a reasonably reputable English paper in Hong Kong. But their web site is really hard to navigate on a phone)
 
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BenedictGomez

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Tom Cotton mentioned the fact there is a Level 4 Bio lab in Wuhan.

That is true. And it happens to be the only L4 Biosafety Laboratory in all of China, which is a really big country.

Could the fact that the virus outbreak happened in the same place as the only L4 lab in all of China be a coincidence? Sure, but I'm pretty suspicious. I can easily envision a scenario where they discovered a novel virus & were studying it in the lab & somebody there got infected & the rest is history. I'm not much for coincidences.

That said, the "biological weapon" bit is total BS. For starters, it's a new virus, not something snipped & altered from any known DNA sequence, and it would also be a really poor "weapon" to begin with.
 

bdfreetuna

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That said, the "biological weapon" bit is total BS. For starters, it's a new virus, not something snipped & altered from any known DNA sequence, and it would also be a really poor "weapon" to begin with.

You'd have to tell me if it's a natural mutation or if it isn't. And if it isn't, you'd have to tell me what the purpose was behind making it.

Here is the "strong evidence" I cited a few posts back.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/scien...ding-the-wuhan-novel-coronavirus_3225405.html
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext

I'm not trying to convince anyone anything though, we're all in the same boat whatever the case.
 

Dickc

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I think we're going to find out eventually a lot of the population caught the virus, in many cases already, and thought it was a regular cold or maybe an unusual cold. Since it is so mild in most people and resembles cold, vast majority of cases go unreported and people recover easily and normally. But that means it's already been spread. Cat's out of the bag on this one.

Whatever was happening in Wuhan where there were rooms full of people having seizures at the same time and people dropping dead on the sidewalk -- seems to be another factor in play. That's not happening elsewhere.

There seems to be 2 versions of the Covid-19 virus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html
 

The Sneak

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Re: Porsche as ski car

I remember a couple that used to drive from NYC to the Loaf every other weekend in the 90s, their conveyance of choice was a silver 1991 Porsche 911 Carrera 4 with a ski rack. I always thought that was so cool whenever I would see it in the hotel parking lot.



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abc

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Can you link the data to that, I'd like to see it? It goes against what I've been reviewing elsewhere & I dont believe it's true.

Frankly, the only data (today) that I statistically trust is the South Korean data for various reasons, and nobody < 30 has died there in the entire nation even though they have almost 7,000 total cases. Italy is less transparent than I'd like, but their average morality is 81 years old.
I can’t find any actual “data”, like how many doctors and nurses died. But it was widely reported in China and Hong Kong, and confirmed by Chinese government, the doctor who blew the whistle on the outbreak had died of the virus. He was in his 30’s.

I was in Canada at the time. There’s widely TV coverage of it. And some doctor (or nurse?) was interviewed about the state of their working condition. And his comments were “so many of them was sick and dying, we have a big shortage of health care workers”. Granted, infection rate for doctors are high, that doesn’t surprise anyone. It’s the mortality rate that matters. But unfortunately that kind of detail information is not forthcoming from the Chinese government.

The same news was also widely present in Chinese internet media. But the government had a habit of deleting posts they don’t like. Or deleting “offending” accounts altogether.
 

deadheadskier

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Re: Porsche as ski car

I remember a couple that used to drive from NYC to the Loaf every other weekend in the 90s, their conveyance of choice was a silver 1991 Porsche 911 Carrera 4 with a ski rack. I always thought that was so cool whenever I would see it in the hotel parking lot.



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AZ member Brad J rolls up to Attitash or Wildcat almost every weekend in a Mustang with snows.

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BenedictGomez

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I can’t find any actual “data”, like how many doctors and nurses died. But it was widely reported in China and Hong Kong, and confirmed by Chinese government, the doctor who blew the whistle on the outbreak had died of the virus. He was in his 30’s.

That's fine, but if so, it's an outlier. Assuming of course he died from COVID19, and not COLT44.

Almost nobody in their 30's is dying from COVID19. Almost nobody < 50 is dying from it either. In those age cohorts, the morbidity rate is quite similar to the common flu. Again, the media is scaring the **** out of people.
 

abc

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That's fine, but if so, it's an outlier. Assuming of course he died from COVID19, and not COLT44.
He WAS CONFIRMED to have died of COVID19.

THAT, you can easily search reports in English. I gave you the starting point. But if you already made up your mind, by all means discount it.

Next, you will argue the Chinese bungled the test too!
 
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