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Guns firing?

slatham

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Highway Star, two quick notes on those forecasts: 1) They are based solely on the GFS model and can thus be off (sometimes way off); and 2) they have no clue what is going on at 3,500' to 4,000' in elevation. As the old saying goes, "Winter comes down from above", and this refers to not only from the North, but also from the higher elevations.

While the K and SR may make snow and even open, anything they do for the next 2 weeks will be a marketing stunt. There is no sustainable cold air until later in the month (maybe) and next week will be in the 60's and maybe 70's in New England.

But the longer range forecasting for the winter remains positive for a colder and snowier than normal winter. If you heard a few forecasts saying its going to be a "warmer" winter, remember that these (or at least that I've seen) are in relation to last winter.
 

drjeff

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You also have to keep in mind that as the "battle" from summer to winter goes on you tend to get a bunch of nights where the dreaded for snowmaking temperature inversion sets up. So it really does become a situation where macro climate regional forecast's aren't good for much more than general trend prediction. The individual, often ski area specifically subscribed to micro climate forecasts for their specific area means way more! Let alone their on mountain weather station data that is more and more with modern snowmaking systems, an incredible source of weather data for the mountain ops folks!

Right now since I'm in San Antonio, TX for the next 5 days for a convention, the only thing I'm thinking about that has a temperature in the 30's is a cold beer! Since its supposed to reach the low to mid 90's here today!! :eek:
 

VTKilarney

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mbedle

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Good site to look at is mountain-forecast.com. Not sure where they get their info, but they appear to try and take into consideration the upper elevations of these ski resorts and mountain peaks.
 

ScottySkis

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Noaa does some good elevation forecasting. Not great but better than nothing.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BTV/RECBTV
as of today you mean this


690
SXUS41 KBTV 110741
RECBTV
NYZ028>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-112215-

RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

.THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN FORECAST...

.TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. WAVES NEARLY CALM. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED.
.TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WAVES 1 FOOT OR LESS...BUILDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. WAVES 1 FOOT OR LESS.

LATEST LEVEL AND TEMPERATURE DATA FROM AROUND LAKE CHAMPLAIN
LEVEL TEMPERATURE
USGS GAGE AT ROUSES POINT NY 94.22 FEET
USGS GAGE AT BURLINGTON VT 94.28 FEET 58 DEGREES
KING STREET FERRY DOCK 94.22 FEET 58 DEGREES
COLCHESTER REEF MM DEGREES
DIAMOND ISLAND 56 DEGREES

&&

.THE HIGHER SUMMITS FORECAST FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...

.TODAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
 

The Sneak

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Its going to cool off starting sunday. NWS Taunton says reinforcing shot of colder air next week too. Could guns fire sometimes between 10/19-10/25? Hmmm.
 

Smellytele

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Right where I want to be
K at about 3400'

  • Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind around 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • Sunday A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. West wind around 18 mph.
  • Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 21 mph.
  • Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 39. West wind 11 to 18 mph.
  • Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
  • Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Northwest wind around 8 mph.
 

yeggous

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Its going to cool off starting sunday. NWS Taunton says reinforcing shot of colder air next week too. Could guns fire sometimes between 10/19-10/25? Hmmm.

I doubt it. The cool air is not going to be strong enough. It looks like there won't be enough cold air in place to start making snow until about Halloween. At this point my best guess is first turns in early November.

2s8k9qh.jpg
 

Puck it

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Franconia, NH
K at about 3400'

  • Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind around 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • Sunday A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. West wind around 18 mph.
  • Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 21 mph.
  • Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 39. West wind 11 to 18 mph.
  • Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
  • Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Northwest wind around 8 mph.

That is a big change from a couple of days ago. The humidity will be the key for production though. I don't think they will go for it though since the days are not cold and added cost of electricity. They will wait I think.
 

dlague

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I doubt it. The cool air is not going to be strong enough. It looks like there won't be enough cold air in place to start making snow until about Halloween. At this point my best guess is first turns in early November.

2s8k9qh.jpg

Sounds about right based on what I see!
 

ss20

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A minute from the Alta exit off the I-15!
Killington forecast

Looks great: http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Killington/6day/top
Looks good: http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:05751.1.99999
Looks good: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/killington-vt/05751/october-weather/81740_poi
Looks OK: http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USVT0126

My 0.02$: Guns turn on Sunday evening. There's a solid 12-16 hour window of good snowmaking temps. Monday night and Tuesday nights have shorter windows, maybe 8-10 hours. Wednesday night is questionable. Thursday is better but too long range. If things work out right I'm saying we'll be skiing by late next week or that weekend.

Again, this is my non-scientific "I'm just reporting what the internet tells me" weather report.
 

VTKilarney

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It would have helped if this cold snap was before the weekend. I'm not at all convinced that they are going to turn on the guns in Sunday. While my hunch is that they won't, I wouldn't be floored if it happened. I think that the decision will depend on what the longer term forecast looks like on Sunday. Right now it looks like low temps are quite where they need to be. But we are definitely close...
 

catsup948

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Problem with firing up the guns Sunday, Monday is the cold rain Tuesday- Friday. This would likely make opening the 25th impossible. Maybe Halloween Friday works best for marketing!
 

deadheadskier

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I know you are all interested in our plan, so I wanted to let you know what we are thinking.

We have been watching the weather, as many of you have, and wanted to give an update on our snowmaking plan. It appears we will have good temps to make snow Sunday night into Monday, but not enough to try for opening. We would normally take this opportunity to at least make piles of snow and wait until the next cold snap and then try to open. The problem is that the forecast for the week is warm with substantial amounts of r*in. We believe that the weather this week would wipe out any of the snow we could make Sunday night and therefore it would be a waste of money to turn on the guns tomorrow night.

It looks like the end of next weekend could be setting up for colder weather. We will continue to keep an eye on the weather and open as soon as possible.

MIKE SOLIMANO
 
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