If you were at Sugarloaf right now....

[Greg]

Yi yi yi...It's gonna be 60 and pouring all weekend and they're gonna blow on top of that? Then it's spossed to rain again next weekend. I feel a repeat of last year coming on

Wrong again, snowman. What forecast are you looking at? Today's high is forecasted to be 51F and heading down into the low to md thirties tonight and tomorrow. The Sunday night low is 14F now.

 

[snowman]

Wrong again, snowman. What forecast are you looking at? Today's high is forecasted to be 51F and heading down into the low to md thirties tonight and tomorrow. The Sunday night low is 14F now.

It is?? The forecast changes every 5 mins. As of right now, 12 noon Saturday, they're lookin for a world of hurt to start blowing snow at the loaf. The ground is going to be wet from todays rain for tommorow night, and tommorow night is the ONLY night they can make any snow right up to NOV 7, before which there is a rainstorm forecast. Not to mention the daytime highs pushing 50 for every day inbetween. The only thing that would make this make any sense is if these temps are 10 degrees off what the Loaf is really going to get. Otherwise, Sounds dumb to me! I'm still feeling a repeat of round one of last year.


Saturday, Oct 27More Details/AccuPop™ Breezy with rainLow: 34 °FHigh: 54 °FSunday, Oct 28More Details Partly sunny; breezy, colderLow: 21 °FHigh: 40 °FMonday, Oct 29More Details Plenty of sunshineLow: 25 °FHigh: 41 °FTuesday, Oct 30More Details A shower possibleLow: 33 °FHigh: 46 °FWednesday, Oct 31More Details CloudyLow: 34 °FHigh: 53 °FThursday, Nov 1More Details Colder with a shower possibleLow: 26 °FHigh: 45 °FFriday, Nov 2More Details Partly sunnyLow: 24 °FHigh: 42 °FSaturday, Nov 3More Details Considerable cloudinessLow: 27 °FHigh: 45 °FSunday, Nov 4More Details Mostly sunnyLow: 29 °FHigh: 48 °FMonday, Nov 5More Details Times of sun and cloudsLow: 32 °FHigh: 48 °FTuesday, Nov 6More Details Rain; windy in the afternoonLow: 26 °FHigh: 53 °FWednesday, Nov 7More Details Mostly cloudyLow: 18 °FHigh: 45 °FThursday, Nov 8More Details Colder with clouds and sunLow: 22 °FHigh: 33 °FFriday, Nov 9More Details Sunshine and some cloudsLow: 24 °FHigh: 37 °FSaturday, Nov 10More Details Partly sunnyLow: 27 °FHigh: 43 °F

 

[bobbutts]

It is?? The forecast changes every 5 mins. As of right now, 12 noon Saturday, they're lookin for a world of hurt to start blowing snow at the loaf. The ground is going to be wet from todays rain for tommorow night, and tommorow night is the ONLY night they can make any snow right up to NOV 7, before which there is a rainstorm forecast. Not to mention the daytime highs pushing 50 for every day inbetween. The only thing that would make this make any sense is if these temps are 10 degrees off what the Loaf is really going to get. Otherwise, Sounds dumb to me! I'm still feeling a repeat of round one of last year.


Saturday, Oct 27More Details/AccuPop™ Breezy with rainLow: 34 °FHigh: 54 °FSunday, Oct 28More Details Partly sunny; breezy, colderLow: 21 °FHigh: 40 °FMonday, Oct 29More Details Plenty of sunshineLow: 25 °FHigh: 41 °FTuesday, Oct 30More Details A shower possibleLow: 33 °FHigh: 46 °FWednesday, Oct 31More Details CloudyLow: 34 °FHigh: 53 °FThursday, Nov 1More Details Colder with a shower possibleLow: 26 °FHigh: 45 °FFriday, Nov 2More Details Partly sunnyLow: 24 °FHigh: 42 °FSaturday, Nov 3More Details Considerable cloudinessLow: 27 °FHigh: 45 °FSunday, Nov 4More Details Mostly sunnyLow: 29 °FHigh: 48 °FMonday, Nov 5More Details Times of sun and cloudsLow: 32 °FHigh: 48 °FTuesday, Nov 6More Details Rain; windy in the afternoonLow: 26 °FHigh: 53 °FWednesday, Nov 7More Details Mostly cloudyLow: 18 °FHigh: 45 °FThursday, Nov 8More Details Colder with clouds and sunLow: 22 °FHigh: 33 °FFriday, Nov 9More Details Sunshine and some cloudsLow: 24 °FHigh: 37 °FSaturday, Nov 10More Details Partly sunnyLow: 27 °FHigh: 43 °F

blah blah blah accuweather

stop posting about weather you have no idea of what you're talking about. Due to your closed attitude it appears you will not learn.
are you trying to make this board suck? You're doing a good job.

 

[bobbutts]

Quoting from a meteorologist on another board:

"Both the NAM and GFS 12z runs are flagging a pretty signficant 1.5 to 2D cold snap for much of New England...late Sun through early Tues."

so there's our window, let's see who blows snow and who just plain blows

 

[Greg]

It is?? The forecast changes every 5 mins. As of right now, 12 noon Saturday, they're lookin for a world of hurt to start blowing snow at the loaf. The ground is going to be wet from todays rain for tommorow night, and tommorow night is the ONLY night they can make any snow right up to NOV 7, before which there is a rainstorm forecast. Not to mention the daytime highs pushing 50 for every day inbetween. The only thing that would make this make any sense is if these temps are 10 degrees off what the Loaf is really going to get. Otherwise, Sounds dumb to me! I'm still feeling a repeat of round one of last year.


Saturday, Oct 27More Details/AccuPop™ Breezy with rainLow: 34 °FHigh: 54 °FSunday, Oct 28More Details Partly sunny; breezy, colderLow: 21 °FHigh: 40 °FMonday, Oct 29More Details Plenty of sunshineLow: 25 °FHigh: 41 °FTuesday, Oct 30More Details A shower possibleLow: 33 °FHigh: 46 °FWednesday, Oct 31More Details CloudyLow: 34 °FHigh: 53 °FThursday, Nov 1More Details Colder with a shower possibleLow: 26 °FHigh: 45 °FFriday, Nov 2More Details Partly sunnyLow: 24 °FHigh: 42 °FSaturday, Nov 3More Details Considerable cloudinessLow: 27 °FHigh: 45 °FSunday, Nov 4More Details Mostly sunnyLow: 29 °FHigh: 48 °FMonday, Nov 5More Details Times of sun and cloudsLow: 32 °FHigh: 48 °FTuesday, Nov 6More Details Rain; windy in the afternoonLow: 26 °FHigh: 53 °FWednesday, Nov 7More Details Mostly cloudyLow: 18 °FHigh: 45 °FThursday, Nov 8More Details Colder with clouds and sunLow: 22 °FHigh: 33 °FFriday, Nov 9More Details Sunshine and some cloudsLow: 24 °FHigh: 37 °FSaturday, Nov 10More Details Partly sunnyLow: 27 °FHigh: 43 °F

Let me repeat. Accuweather for Kingfield is not representative of the Loaf. Here's the NOAA point forecast for 3,388':

This Afternoon: Periods of rain. Patchy fog. High near 51. South wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight: Periods of showers, mainly before 8pm. Patchy fog before 8pm. Low around 31. South wind 11 to 15 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: A chance of rain showers before 8am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. West wind between 11 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Northwest wind between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Northwest wind between 9 and 11 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: A chance of freezing rain or rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.

A little different, eh? In my experience, the NWS 7 day forecast is the most reliable for that range. Gray, Maine forecast discussion:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONDAY MORNING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHES BY
TO OUR NORTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY.

Indeed a brief warmup midweek, but not too terrible.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Snowman is anti-stoke..Greg can you just ban him???

 

[bobbutts]

Let me repeat. Accuweather for Kingfield is not representative of the Loaf. Here's the NOAA point forecast for 3,388':



A little different, eh? In my experience, the NWS 7 day forecast is the most reliable for that range. Gray, Maine forecast discussion:



Indeed a brief warmup midweek, but not too terrible.

Absolutely!
the NWS takes the models (not just one) and then applies human knowledge to a forecast. It's magnitudes better than taking one model output like accuweather does.

Greg, I really think you should solicit a Meteorologist to hang around on this board. I'm a beginner with enough knowledge to understand a small amount of stuff for myself and not enough to really explain it well and I feel like I may be among the most knowledgeable on this board. I'm not qualified with to be the board weather police :smile: but with Snowman spewing off one could be needed

 

[snoseek]

It is?? The forecast changes every 5 mins. As of right now, 12 noon Saturday, they're lookin for a world of hurt to start blowing snow at the loaf. The ground is going to be wet from todays rain for tommorow night, and tommorow night is the ONLY night they can make any snow right up to NOV 7, before which there is a rainstorm forecast. Not to mention the daytime highs pushing 50 for every day inbetween. The only thing that would make this make any sense is if these temps are 10 degrees off what the Loaf is really going to get. Otherwise, Sounds dumb to me! I'm still feeling a repeat of round one of last year.


Saturday, Oct 27More Details/AccuPop™ Breezy with rainLow: 34 °FHigh: 54 °FSunday, Oct 28More Details Partly sunny; breezy, colderLow: 21 °FHigh: 40 °FMonday, Oct 29More Details Plenty of sunshineLow: 25 °FHigh: 41 °FTuesday, Oct 30More Details A shower possibleLow: 33 °FHigh: 46 °FWednesday, Oct 31More Details CloudyLow: 34 °FHigh: 53 °FThursday, Nov 1More Details Colder with a shower possibleLow: 26 °FHigh: 45 °FFriday, Nov 2More Details Partly sunnyLow: 24 °FHigh: 42 °FSaturday, Nov 3More Details Considerable cloudinessLow: 27 °FHigh: 45 °FSunday, Nov 4More Details Mostly sunnyLow: 29 °FHigh: 48 °FMonday, Nov 5More Details Times of sun and cloudsLow: 32 °FHigh: 48 °FTuesday, Nov 6More Details Rain; windy in the afternoonLow: 26 °FHigh: 53 °FWednesday, Nov 7More Details Mostly cloudyLow: 18 °FHigh: 45 °FThursday, Nov 8More Details Colder with clouds and sunLow: 22 °FHigh: 33 °FFriday, Nov 9More Details Sunshine and some cloudsLow: 24 °FHigh: 37 °FSaturday, Nov 10More Details Partly sunnyLow: 27 °FHigh: 43 °F

:smash::smash::smash::smash::smash:



You need to make a vow to yourself to follow different weather than this. As I'm sure you are aware sugarloaf is a very cold mountain, with a completely different forecast than kingfield. Just drive up 27 on any random winter day and check out the difference in snowpack. crappuweather 15 day forecast is a joke, especially in the mountains. I still say a couple different routes by thanksgiving but who really knows. lose the negative vibes (we are all a little scarred from last nov-jan) and think

 

[snoseek]

Absolutely!
the NWS takes the models (not just one) and then applies human knowledge to a forecast. It's magnitudes better than taking one model output like accuweather does.

Greg, I really think you should solicit a Meteorologist to hang around on this board. I'm a beginner with enough knowledge to understand a small amount of stuff for myself and not enough to really explain it well and I feel like I may be among the most knowledgeable on this board. I'm not qualified with to be the board weather police :smile: but with Snowman spewing off one could be needed

I agree about the regular meteorologist statement, that would be very cool for all the folks here who want some insight.

 

[Greg]

Absolutely!
the NWS takes the models (not just one) and then applies human knowledge to a forecast. It's magnitudes better than taking one model output like accuweather does.

Greg, I really think you should solicit a Meteorologist to hang around on this board. I'm a beginner with enough knowledge to understand a small amount of stuff for myself and not enough to really explain it well and I feel like I may be among the most knowledgeable on this board. I'm not qualified with to be the board weather police :smile: but with Snowman spewing off one could be needed

I agree about the regular meteorologist statement, that would be very cool for all the folks here who want some insight.

Funny you guys should ask! There is something in the works...and the guys is well respected. Also, please see:

http://forums.alpinezone.com/19134-weather-forum.html

 

[snowman]

Let me repeat. Accuweather for Kingfield is not representative of the Loaf.

You're NOT repeating. You said before that my Weather.com forecast was NOT for the loaf, but for Kingfield and I showed you how it was indeed for Sugarloaf. Now, I posted the Accuweather forecast (using the forecast OF CHOICE of the OTHER members here who are posting forecasts) for Kingfield because it was a lot BETTER than the weather.com forecast temperature wise even though the weather.com one is for Sugarloaf itself.. Yet, after conforming to using the forecast of choice for this group, I'm still getting crapped on.

Here's the NOAA point forecast for 3,388':

Ok great, A forecast for near the peak. What does this forecast tell me? Looking at it I see a 8 hour window of decent snowmaking temps on timberline. That's it. An 8 hour window. Everything else in the forecast FOR 3400 FEET is good for marginal snowmaking or none at all. That's at 3400 feet! This means that at best they can blow some snow on Timberline, only to lose it to melt and rain later in the week.

It seems you guys just keep switching and swapping forecasts for which ever one looks best. You need to be realistic. I hope some op's managers are being realistic too or they'll be blowing money out the window. If there was no change in ownership this year nobody would even be saying boo in relation to snowmaking with this sort of window. I'm not trying to be an a$$hole. I want to go skiing as much as the rest of you. I'm just the only one being realistic here!

 

[snowman]

Let me repeat. Accuweather for Kingfield is not representative of the Loaf. Here's the NOAA point forecast for 3,388':

Sigh

What you can do with this from a snowmakers perspective from the top of the Superquad to the peak:

This Afternoon: Periods of rain. Patchy fog. High near 51. South wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Any frost in the ground gone and the ground very wet

Tonight: Periods of showers, mainly before 8pm. Patchy fog before 8pm. Low around 31. South wind 11 to 15 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Ground getting even wetter

Sunday: A chance of rain showers before 8am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. West wind between 11 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Ground getting even wetter still, no frost in it at all, Can't start blowing until atleast midnight, maybe later.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Northwest wind between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Can start blowing on Timberline (you could blow on the whole mountain, but there's no point other than as a test) sometime between midnight and 3 am. The wind is going to take a lot of it.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Northwest wind between 9 and 11 mph.

Shut down sometime between 10 AM and Noon. Temps too high. Snowmaking net up time 7-12 hours. Optimal snowmaking conditions, 4 hours. Snow made at 1 gun position, 4 to 16 inches

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Could maybe go online between midnight and 8 am. Conditions very marginal. Snow made at same gun position : very wet 2-6 inches.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41.

Snow lost, 1-3 inches

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

No snowmaking possible

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

Snow lost 1-3 inches. Top 1 foot of ground not covered by snow getting very wet due to melt, turning into a bog.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

No snowmaking possible. Thermal melting still taking place from warm ground. 1 inch lost.

Thursday: A chance of freezing rain or rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

No snowmaking possible. Thermal melting still taking place from warm ground. 1 inch lost. Further 1-6 inches lost depending on rainfall.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Could maybe go online between midnight and 8 am. Conditions very marginal. Snow made at same gun position : very wet 2-6 inches. Not really worth it where there's ony 6 inches left covering 1/4 of the ground that was covered monday afternoon and the fact the trail is a swamp...

 

[snowman]

I suspect Sugarloaf will blow on Sunday night, but more as a test fire of the improved system than a base building event. I will be surprised if they choose to do anymore than that. I also suspect they will label it a base building event, even though they know it's hopeless.

 

[Greg]

You're NOT repeating. You said before that my Weather.com forecast was NOT for the loaf, but for Kingfield and I showed you how it was indeed for Sugarloaf. Now, I posted the Accuweather forecast (using the forecast OF CHOICE of the OTHER members here who are posting forecasts) for Kingfield because it was a lot BETTER than the weather.com forecast temperature wise even though the weather.com one is for Sugarloaf itself.. Yet, after conforming to using the forecast of choice for this group, I'm still getting crapped on.

We're within 7 days of a potential snowmaking window, use NOAA. Accuweather 15 day forecasts are just fun to speculate with.

Ok great, A forecast for near the peak. What does this forecast tell me? Looking at it I see a 8 hour window of decent snowmaking temps on timberline. That's it. An 8 hour window. Everything else in the forecast FOR 3400 FEET is good for marginal snowmaking or none at all. That's at 3400 feet! This means that at best they can blow some snow on Timberline, only to lose it to melt and rain later in the week.

The peak? :blink: Sorry bub, the peak is 4,237'. The top of the Superquad is still higher at ~3,800'. Well, since you want to use a worse case scenario forecast, here it is for 2,201':

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. Northwest wind between 13 and 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Northwest wind between 9 and 11 mph.

Monday Night: A slight chance of snow showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 47.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.​

Still pretty good through Monday night.

It seems you guys just keep switching and swapping forecasts for which ever one looks best. You need to be realistic. I hope some op's managers are being realistic too or they'll be blowing money out the window. If there was no change in ownership this year nobody would even be saying boo in relation to snowmaking with this sort of window. I'm not trying to be an a$$hole. I want to go skiing as much as the rest of you. I'm just the only one being realistic here!

Riiiiiight. So if there are some base building efforts overnight Sunday night, please be sure to call all the mountain ops departments and inform them they are blowing money out the window. I'm sure they'll shut them off after your call... :roll:

 

[snoseek]

Snoman do you really think 41 degrees on a cloudy day (tuesday) would melt 1-3 inches? I'm not so convinced about that.

 

[snowman]

The peak? :blink: Sorry bub, the peak is 4,237'. The top of the Superquad is still higher at ~3,800'. Well, since you want to use a worse case scenario forecast, here it is for 2,201':

Dude, Sugarloaf is 2800 vert feet. Your forecast starts at 2000 feet up the mountian. We're therefore damn near talking about the top 1/4 of the mountain. What the hell else would you call the top 1/4 of a mountain if not the peak?!?!?! What's more, I didn't even say peak, I said NEAR the peak. Are you f'n kidding me?? The forecast is only good for timberline, exactly as I said.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Northwest wind between 9 and 11 mph.

Monday Night: A slight chance of snow showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Still pretty good through Monday night.

Yeah, for putting out a forest fire? You can make 1 inch of slop total with that forecast.

Riiiiiight. So if there are some base building efforts overnight Sunday night, please be sure to call all the mountain ops departments and inform them they are blowing money out the window. I'm sure they'll shut them off after your call... :roll:

They're going to enthusiastically test fire Sunday night looking for system weaknesses and for training puposes. They will call it base building, but they know full well they'll likely lose it all. If they don't, great, they got to keep something from "blowing out the mice". If they blow Monday night, they're either nuts, or this forecast has changed dramatically.

 

[snowman]

P.S. That post was in a condescending tone, why? Because YOU started it.

 

[snowman]

Snoman do you really think 41 degrees on a cloudy day (tuesday) would melt 1-3 inches? I'm not so convinced about that.

Yes, as the ground is still warm. It's more about the ground temp than the air temp. Snow that gets blown in "warmer" snowmaking temps is very wet to begin with. It only takes a bit of warmth to convert it back to water.

 

[wa-loaf]

I think Snowman is probably right about the ground not being frozen becoming a problem. But we need a clarification of that 2000 foot forecast. Is that 2000 ft above sea level, which seems to make sense to me. Or 2000 feet up from the base of SL, which seems like a really wierd way to make a forcast.

Either way it looks like they have a couple good nights to blow some snow before it warms up around Thursday. So I don't see why both scenarios won't work.* They'll blow a bunch of snow to work out the kinks (they've got that new pump house) and try to build up a base that will last throught to next weekend when they can really get going. If the base melts. well they go to do a full blown test of the system.


*I know nothing about snow making and am just making stuff up from what I've read in this thread.

 

[snowman]

I think Snowman is probably right about the ground not being frozen becoming a problem. But we need a clarification of that 2000 foot forecast. Is that 2000 ft above sea level, which seems to make sense to me. Or 2000 feet up from the base of SL, which seems like a really wierd way to make a forcast..

It's gotta be above sea level. My best guess is the 3400 forecast puts you at the base of the Timberline quad and the 2200 forecast lands you somewhere around the base of the Spillway chairs. Sugarloafs total vert includes the triple that runs down into the condos below the lodge and bottoms out at 1400. I have issues with them calling it 2800 continuous vert as well, as you literally have to cross roads down in condo land to get to the base of the triple.

Either way it looks like they have a couple good nights to blow some snow before it warms up around Thursday.

They only really have one good night and 4 good hours. Snow made at 22 and above at 90 to100% humidity (which is what it pretty much always is at the loaf this time of year) is of really poor quality and will melt fast with above freezing temps as it has high moisture content. Couple that with it sitting on ground that's 50F, and it's foolishness. 28F and above at the same humidity you can't make any snow at all. Everything in between is considered marginal because you end up making slop and use a crapload of air in the process. Since the forecasted LOWS on monday night are 22F and 26F (dependent on elevation) you can AT BEST get a 2-4 hours in of slop making, as you only hit your low for about an hour around dawn. Nobody in their right mind will ever act on that given the rest of the forecast. When you take all of this into account, there's only really 4 good hours in the forecast for the next 7 days.

So I don't see why both scenarios won't work.* They'll blow a bunch of snow to work out the kinks (they've got that new pump house) and try to build up a base that will last throught to next weekend when they can really get going. If the base melts. well they go to do a full blown test of the system.

This is basically what I was saying. They get to give the system a full fledged trial on Sunday night, and if the forecast should happen to change dramatically, they have a head start on a base. I imagine they suspect (as I do) that they're likely going to lose it all though.