Killington 2016-7: It's On!

[joshua segal]

Update: Opening postponed to Tuesday, PM. If anyone is planning to go, double check with them first.

 

[benski]

I'm just going to say this, NWS or not. Where are their data points to base off of? I do not believe the NWS has a high elevation weather station in the middle of VT. Without data to put into computer models, temp forecasts are a crap shoot. That is why I lean towards the mount Washington observatory high peaks forecast and adjust a bit for K's slightly reduced elevation and Latitude.

Just saying...

Couldn't NWS use Mount Washington and a network of thermometers with minimal internet connection.

 

[yeggous]

Update: Opening postponed to Tuesday, PM. If anyone is planning to go, double check with them first.

I tried to warn everyone.

 

[ss20]

I can't remember if they do anything else at North Ridge before.

Between the last natural snow round, and the precipitation this Thursday-Friday looking more and more like a net positive, I'd say Powerline could be in play soon after opening day, especially if it got any blow-over. They've pointed guns in its direction to get it open early season.

 

[slatham]

I'm just going to say this, NWS or not. Where are their data points to base off of? I do not believe the NWS has a high elevation weather station in the middle of VT. Without data to put into computer models, temp forecasts are a crap shoot. That is why I lean towards the mount Washington observatory high peaks forecast and adjust a bit for K's slightly reduced elevation and Latitude.

Just saying...

Well they do have Mt Mansfield as an official NWS reporting station. There are also a number of other stations that you can access via WeatherUnderground, including Stratton Summit and another at 2500'. I am sure there are others throughout VT at elevation, and I bet NWS uses them. But of course the age old way to determine atmospheric conditions at various elevations - key to weather forecasting everywhere - are the weather balloons that are launched from thousands of locations on a regular basis.

But of course they get things wrong, and in this case literally a degree or two can make all the difference. Yeggous' skepticism was warranted. Where's he getting his data from?

 

[yeggous]

Well they do have Mt Mansfield as an official NWS reporting station. There are also a number of other stations that you can access via WeatherUnderground, including Stratton Summit and another at 2500'. I am sure there are others throughout VT at elevation, and I bet NWS uses them. But of course the age old way to determine atmospheric conditions at various elevations - key to weather forecasting everywhere - are the weather balloons that are launched from thousands of locations on a regular basis.

But of course they get things wrong, and in this case literally a degree or two can make all the difference. Yeggous' skepticism was warranted. Where's he getting his data from?

Yeggous has a degree in meteorology. I worked as a research scientist developing weather models for five years before my recent career change. I try to stay quiet in most weather discussions. OMG one run of the GFS hs snowmaggedon in ten days!

Mountain top historical observations irrelevant to the veracity of weather model forecasts. The forecasts are mostly driven by balloon observations.

Don't spend too much time concerned with the Mt Washington summits forecast. They are largely generated by interns. The NWS digital forecast grids are the single best source for forecasts. Go to weather.gov. You can enter a very specific location and click on the map to move around. Pay attention to the altitude of the grid point as it influences the temperature.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[Los]

I try to stay quiet in most weather discussions.

How come? Please reconsider!

 

[yeggous]

How come? Please reconsider!

I figure that talking weather with people here would just end in ignorance and frustration. Several people here think that they are experts. A discussion that starts with somebody pointing out a big storm in one model run will end with that person declaring that global climate change is a Chinese conspiracy.

 

[ss20]

How come? Please reconsider!

Because up until last year or so ago the weather forum had too many people who knew too little who would debate people who actually knew about weather until it was a pointless pissing match. That scared most of the qualified people away and has left the forum a place of speculation and model regurgitation. So by that point there were threads upon threads of storms that were one-run wonders...which further pissed off people...so the mods stepped in and took control...and there were arguments about what the "rules" for the weather forum should look like and all that.

That and the climate change arguments.

Essentially, go back a few years in the weather forum and you'll see why it would be a terrible idea for this forum to have a politics section. BTW, I'm not at all qualified to talk about weather but I do enjoy the speculation and have learned a lot over the past few years.

 

[machski]

Well they do have Mt Mansfield as an official NWS reporting station. There are also a number of other stations that you can access via WeatherUnderground, including Stratton Summit and another at 2500'. I am sure there are others throughout VT at elevation, and I bet NWS uses them. But of course the age old way to determine atmospheric conditions at various elevations - key to weather forecasting everywhere - are the weather balloons that are launched from thousands of locations on a regular basis.

But of course they get things wrong, and in this case literally a degree or two can make all the difference. Yeggous' skepticism was warranted. Where's he getting his data from?

I figured Mansfield had a station, didn't know about Stratton. Mount Washington observatory is not just the forecasts for me, all the data points they have. The auto road elevation stations data points are great, especially to see if inversions are at play. It's a great snapshot and better than wx balloons in my opinion (any station at elevation is) when you are examining weather at altitude in proximity to terrain.
Good call today. Very surprised the guns stayed on all day. SR failed to start making til tonight as well, so the weakened cold persisted well north as well.

 

[bdfreetuna]

Looks like they've got a little window. Then it gets moist. Maybe more snow than rain? I like this site though for the base and top forecasts.

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Killington-Peak/forecasts/1291

 

[Los]

Because up until last year or so ago the weather forum had too many people who knew too little who would debate people who actually knew about weather until it was a pointless pissing match. That scared most of the qualified people away and has left the forum a place of speculation and model regurgitation. So by that point there were threads upon threads of storms that were one-run wonders...which further pissed off people...so the mods stepped in and took control...and there were arguments about what the "rules" for the weather forum should look like and all that.

That and the climate change arguments.

Essentially, go back a few years in the weather forum and you'll see why it would be a terrible idea for this forum to have a politics section. BTW, I'm not at all qualified to talk about weather but I do enjoy the speculation and have learned a lot over the past few years.

Thanks for the background info. I'll pledge to no longer post in the weather forum. That's at least one less non-qualified person complaining and speculating about the weather...

 

[yeggous]

I figured Mansfield had a station, didn't know about Stratton. Mount Washington observatory is not just the forecasts for me, all the data points they have. The auto road elevation stations data points are great, especially to see if inversions are at play. It's a great snapshot and better than wx balloons in my opinion (any station at elevation is) when you are examining weather at altitude in proximity to terrain.
Good call today. Very surprised the guns stayed on all day. SR failed to start making til tonight as well, so the weakened cold persisted well north as well.

The Mt Washington mesonet is an excellent resource. It has stations at the summits of Attitash, Bretton Woods, Cannon, and Cranmore. As a secret tip, Davis Instruments has a website and app that will get you observations from weather stations made by them. In the MWV that gets you Cranmore base, Cranmore mid-mountain, Cranmore summit, Bear Peak summit, Wildcat base, and Wildcat mid-mountain pumphouse. Elsewhere I know there are stations at the Mt Snow base and summit, Smugglers summit, Sugarbush base, and Crotched summit.

 

[bdfreetuna]

What do you think about the link I posted yeggous. Legit or quit?

 

[benski]

Because up until last year or so ago the weather forum had too many people who knew too little who would debate people who actually knew about weather until it was a pointless pissing match.

The thing is most people on this forum are anonymous and we have little information about there backgrounds. How many people would actually know the Yeggous understands weather any better than Los unless they read Yeggous's post from earlier.

 

[bdfreetuna]

you can figure out pretty quick who has meteorology experience and who's just shitposting snow stoke screenshots... ime

 

[yeggous]

What do you think about the link I posted yeggous. Legit or quit?

If it presents the information in a way that is easy to digest, then by all means use it. It is probably just GFS forecasts that are repackaged and presented with their visualizations at a preprocessed list of locations. That sort of post-processing to match weather information to specific locals is a common value-add. I created a product that did the same thing with census information to estimate damage to homes, then we'd roll up those estimates to the county, zip code, nearest home improvement store etc. It allowed building materials suppliers to estimate their demand days in advance.

I've toyed with the idea of starting my own website or app in my free time. But then I realize it would be a lot of work with little monetary payback. I've learned the hard way not to do business in anything you want to enjoy or experience. You never want work to be calling when you want to be playing.

 

[Jully]

Because up until last year or so ago the weather forum had too many people who knew too little who would debate people who actually knew about weather until it was a pointless pissing match. That scared most of the qualified people away and has left the forum a place of speculation and model regurgitation. So by that point there were threads upon threads of storms that were one-run wonders...which further pissed off people...so the mods stepped in and took control...and there were arguments about what the "rules" for the weather forum should look like and all that.

That and the climate change arguments.

Essentially, go back a few years in the weather forum and you'll see why it would be a terrible idea for this forum to have a politics section. BTW, I'm not at all qualified to talk about weather but I do enjoy the speculation and have learned a lot over the past few years.

+1 I know little about meteorology, but have learned some interesting things from those on this forum who do. I've enjoyed the weather conversations that have stayed civil and intelligent. Still don't pretend to know anything though.

I think last winter saw all issues magnify as well due to stress and frustration. I hope this winter can see some positive winter discussion.

 

[benski]

you can figure out pretty quick who has meteorology experience and who's just shitposting snow stoke screenshots... ime

There is also a third category of people who learned a fair amount of meteorology from reading meteorologists and google searches. Unless you are getting realy technical, using sources that are not free on the internet or referencing it regularly it would be hard to tell the difrence between someone in the third category and a pro.

 

[steamboat1]

I say just stick with tuna's forecasts. If he says it's going to dump stay home. I've found more inaccuracy in his forecasts than any other projections posted on here.

yeggous is another.

My projection is there will be lift serviced skiing at K tomorrow with free lunch for passholders.