Killington is going to open before Sunday River this season.

[mondeo]

There's a big difference between normal snowmaking ops and marginal ops.

At the base of the NRT, they have 14 hours between 20° and 27° dewpoint, and 21 hours under 20°F dewpoint, down to 9. Non-ideal, but with ideal conditions they're within spitting distance of opening. And I've skied on thinner cover than they have now.

 

[mondeo]

At the base of the NRT, they have 14 hours between 20° and 27° dewpoint, and 21 hours under 20°F dewpoint, down to 9. Non-ideal, but with ideal conditions they're within spitting distance of opening. And I've skied on thinner cover than they have now.

And the forecast seems to keep getting colder. 35 hours straight below 20F dewpoint.

 

[skiingsnow]

They had at least 3-4 decent overnight snowmaking windows that week, but didn't make snow because they probably "thought it was too early" and were expecting rain, but instaid got 1-2 ft of snow. Not the first time they made bad decisions based on a long term forecast. They also probably didn't have the walkway open.

They still got rain before the snow... And the mountain was open for hiking/biking/leef peeping through Monday, and temps were very marginal even at 4200' so there really wasn't any window until after the snow, in my opinion...

 

[WJenness]

And the forecast seems to keep getting colder. 35 hours straight below 20F dewpoint.

Keep an eye on the humidity... looks to be pretty high, if that comes down, they can get MUCH better production...

-w

 

[Highway Star]

There are a few pics from alpinista on TGR from earlier today at K. Doesn't look good for opening this weekend.

The pic of upper east fall does not look encouraging, but the others look ok. It's just helpful for them to have frozen ground or ice to blow snow on.

 

[tjf67]

Ski areas need more than just a few hours at 32 degrees to make snow.

Also, it was quite windy through Monday.

Thanks Threecy. I made snow back in the late 80. I have an idea what type of weather you need to blow snow. K could have been open.

 

[tjf67]

They still got rain before the snow... And the mountain was open for hiking/biking/leef peeping through Monday, and temps were very marginal even at 4200' so there really wasn't any window until after the snow, in my opinion...

And rain after th snow.

 

[tjf67]

There's a big difference between normal snowmaking ops and marginal ops.

Really do tell.

 

[Smellytele]

Another friend of threecy.

 

[tjf67]

They still got rain before the snow... And the mountain was open for hiking/biking/leef peeping through Monday, and temps were very marginal even at 4200' so there really wasn't any window until after the snow, in my opinion...

I see 9 out of ten days they could have flipped the guns. Put the foot of snow on it and they would have had some terrain open. Now look at the forecast, its looking like crap for the next ten days. 7 out of the then they wont be able to do anything. Its early season. If your goal is to open first you gots to shit and git when it the opportunity presents itself.

 

[threecy]

Really do tell.

Assuming no bumping or oscillating and one gun...
At 32 degrees WB, you may end up essentially frosting the grass after a night of snowmaking.
At 20 degrees WB, you may end up with a 5 foot tall pile after a night of snowmaking.
At 10 degrees WB, you may end up with a 12 foot pile after a night of snowmaking.

I have zero first hand air-water gun experience though. From what I've seen, unless there's plentiful air, they don't perform as well as Wizzards or Arecos (fan guns) when its marginal.

 

[Puck it]

It does not look good for this weekend and the following weekend will not happen based on the 10 day forecast. Starting Saturday, the lows will only be in the 40's and even 50's early in the week amd all the way through 10/30

 

[Highway Star]

It does not look good for this weekend and the following weekend will not happen based on the 10 day forecast. Starting Saturday, the lows will only be in the 40's and even 50's early in the week amd all the way through 10/30

Tough to say. It's still looking like they have a solid 30+ hour snowmkaing window from Thursday night to Saturday morning. That's certainly enough to get open if they wanted to. The rain that is now forecasted for Sunday does not look good but that's still 3 days out and it could miss entirely or come down as snow. Beginning of next week doesn't look good either bur that's many days out.

Very, very tough to call, it all depends how motivated they are to get open and if they are bothered by the possiblity of a marginal day on Sunday or getting shut down next week for an undefined period.

At this point, I think they will make snow because it's too good of a window to pass up. And if they make good snow, it's tough to pass up on opening this weekend while most of the snow is there and fresh. We'll clearly know more tomorrow if snowguns are running all day.

 

[Highway Star]

Oh yeah, here's the forecast at elevation, decide for yourself:

This Afternoon: Occasional rain showers before 2pm, then snow showers likely. High near 44. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy, with a west wind between 18 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Breezy, with a northwest wind between 18 and 22 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. West wind between 14 and 16 mph.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Cloudy and breezy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

[WWF-VT]

Tough to say. It's still looking like they have a solid 30+ hour snowmkaing window from Thursday night to Saturday morning. That's certainly enough to get open if they wanted to. The rain that is now forecasted for Sunday does not look good but that's still 3 days out and it could miss entirely or come down as snow. Beginning of next week doesn't look good either bur that's many days out.

Very, very tough to call, it all depends how motivated they are to get open and if they are bothered by the possiblity of a marginal day on Sunday or getting shut down next week for an undefined period.

At this point, I think they will make snow because it's too good of a window to pass up. And if they make good snow, it's tough to pass up on opening this weekend while most of the snow is there and fresh. We'll clearly know more tomorrow if snowguns are running all day.

Your description of weather conditions make a great argument against trying to open.

 

[tjf67]

Tough to say. It's still looking like they have a solid 30+ hour snowmkaing window from Thursday night to Saturday morning. That's certainly enough to get open if they wanted to. The rain that is now forecasted for Sunday does not look good but that's still 3 days out and it could miss entirely or come down as snow. Beginning of next week doesn't look good either bur that's many days out.

Very, very tough to call, it all depends how motivated they are to get open and if they are bothered by the possiblity of a marginal day on Sunday or getting shut down next week for an undefined period.

At this point, I think they will make snow because it's too good of a window to pass up. And if they make good snow, it's tough to pass up on opening this weekend while most of the snow is there and fresh. We'll clearly know more tomorrow if snowguns are running all day.

I think they missed there opportunity.

 

[WJenness]

Your description of weather conditions make a great argument against trying to open.

+1

-w

 

[Highway Star]

Your description of weather conditions make a great argument against trying to open.

Don't be so negative. If they passed on making snow every time there was some rain in the 5 or 10 day forecast, they wouldn't get open until December. Seriously. They are playing in the big leagues here, and if they want to open early, they need to be willing to make snow at every window and take the chance some of it will melt. If this was the old Killington there is no question they would make snow and open this weekend. It can be done. And they probably would have been open last weekend.

Problem is, these new guys already have a long history of blowing the call, such as last spring when they shut down early before the snowstorm. They signal intent, willingness, such as with the walkway, but when it comes time to make the risky, agressive move, they wimp out and take an overly conservative path. They have the strategy and tools in place, they just need to believe in it and use it to their advantage.

 

[Puck it]

Oh yeah, here's the forecast at elevation, decide for yourself:

These numbers do not jive with yours.

Today

Hi 47°FLo 27°F
Precip60 %

22

Hi 44°FLo 25°F
Precip20 %

23

Hi 51°FLo 31°F
Precip10 %

24

Hi 53°FLo 43°F
Precip30 %

25

Hi 59°FLo 48°F
Precip40 %

26

Hi 58°FLo 48°F
Precip40 %

27

Hi 60°FLo 42°F
Precip30 %

28

Hi 54°FLo 43°F
Precip10 %

29

Hi 50°FLo 35°F
Precip60 %

30

Hi 48°FLo 31°F
Precip60 %

 

[mondeo]

These numbers do not jive with yours.

Today

Hi 47°FLo 27°F
Precip60 %

22

Hi 44°FLo 25°F
Precip20 %

23

Hi 51°FLo 31°F
Precip10 %

24

Hi 53°FLo 43°F
Precip30 %

25

Hi 59°FLo 48°F
Precip40 %

26

Hi 58°FLo 48°F
Precip40 %

27

Hi 60°FLo 42°F
Precip30 %

28

Hi 54°FLo 43°F
Precip10 %

29

Hi 50°FLo 35°F
Precip60 %

30

Hi 48°FLo 31°F
Precip60 %

Subtract about 8 degrees from yours. HS is using a forecast at altitude.