Killllington 🎿🏂🏂🎿🎿🏂🏂🎿😀

[IceEidolon]

Killington needs to move somewhere around fifteen million gallons of water onto Superstar for the World Cup (based on 200k - 250k gal per acre foot, 5000' trail length, 150' width, 2.5' depth).

In super marginal conditions they can still get at least 3000 gallons per minute onto that trail (60,000 CFM at a 25:1 air to water ratio - this doesn't factor in any low E gun or the fans at the base and assumes the training run soaks up 12000 CFM of their estimated 72,000 available CFM), for a time to completion of 83 hours of runtime. They can move around 10,000 GPM if they get to run wide open, but I doubt they manage to flow everything they have on Superstar. Still, 8000 GPM means they finish in just 31 hours of prime weather.

Note that Superstar is just about all manual and mostly portable land guns - it'll lose production during startup and shutdown and because the guns won't all be tuned just right. It also has to cure and be winched out, the course set, and possibly treated with urea or water injection - all that takes extra time.

But Killington just needs it to go their way, weather-wise, for three or four days of around-the-clock snowmaking ending a handful of days prior to the anticipated start day. Or a week's worth of cold nights with a couple lows around/below 20. However you get to 83 hours.

 

[BodeMiller1]

It's important to remember, they're not trying to open SS. They need to lay down snow (and no one makes snow it's ice) and groom the hell out of it. If they don't have an ice hard surface they'll call the race. No way they'll let the woman race in less than perfect conditions. It's the first race....

At any rate, I bet they pull it off. If not better luck next year. In the past I said bring in chillers to cool the water, butt as I was told, if they have to do that it's too warm to race.

 

[drjeff]

It's important to remember, they're not trying to open SS. They need to lay down snow (and no one makes snow it's ice) and groom the hell out of it. If they don't have an ice hard surface they'll call the race. No way they'll let the woman race in less than perfect conditions. It's the first race....

At any rate, I bet they pull it off. If not better luck next year. In the past I said bring in chillers to cool the water, butt as I was told, if they have to do that it's too warm to race.

1st race at Killington, but, if the conditions permit it will be the women's 4th race of the season as they have a paralell SL in Lech, Austria on November 12th and then 2 slaloms in Levi, Finland on November 19 and 20.

Hopefully the weather will let those happen as while they had snow for their scheduled opener in Solden, Austria about 10 days ago, the weather that day didn't allow for that GS to happen and then they don't have the snow at the bottom of the course to let the downhills that are scheduled for this coming weekend in Switzerland and Italy (the start was scheduled to be in Switzerland and the course took it down to a finish across the border in Italy) to happen and both those men's and women's races have been cancelled

 

[Newpylong]

Killington needs to move somewhere around fifteen million gallons of water onto Superstar for the World Cup (based on 200k - 250k gal per acre foot, 5000' trail length, 150' width, 2.5' depth).

In super marginal conditions they can still get at least 3000 gallons per minute onto that trail (60,000 CFM at a 25:1 air to water ratio - this doesn't factor in any low E gun or the fans at the base and assumes the training run soaks up 12000 CFM of their estimated 72,000 available CFM), for a time to completion of 83 hours of runtime. They can move around 10,000 GPM if they get to run wide open, but I doubt they manage to flow everything they have on Superstar. Still, 8000 GPM means they finish in just 31 hours of prime weather.

Note that Superstar is just about all manual and mostly portable land guns - it'll lose production during startup and shutdown and because the guns won't all be tuned just right. It also has to cure and be winched out, the course set, and possibly treated with urea or water injection - all that takes extra time.

But Killington just needs it to go their way, weather-wise, for three or four days of around-the-clock snowmaking ending a handful of days prior to the anticipated start day. Or a week's worth of cold nights with a couple lows around/below 20. However you get to 83 hours.

The industry standard water requirements for an acre foot of snow covering the entire spectrum of snow quality is 180-200,000 gallons.

Also as an FYI they can't put anywhere near the volume of water on Skye Peak as you're describing. The absolute upper bounds for Superstart and SL is around 5500 GPM. This is mainly due to feed snd distribution size. At those rates there is also not much remaining to pump elsewhere out of the Basin. The number people hear has been 12,000 GPM but in reality it's less than that. Around 8K out of Snowshed and around 2K out of Bear of effective water capacity.

So it takes longer than that to get the venue covered.

 

[Great Bear]

Does anyone remember what day they were really starting to be able to produce snow last year? I know for a while it was starting to feel like they were going to be cutting it really close, but they did end up pulling it off.

The next week's forecast does not look good for snowmaking temps for sure.

 

[slatham]

Does anyone remember what day they were really starting to be able to produce snow last year? I know for a while it was starting to feel like they were going to be cutting it really close, but they did end up pulling it off.

The next week's forecast does not look good for snowmaking temps for sure.

On Killington blog someone posted a pic from November 13th last year that showed some snow on SS but lots of grass and the snow was very thin.

 

[slatham]

 

[IceEidolon]

The industry standard water requirements for an acre foot of snow covering the entire spectrum of snow quality is 180-200,000 gallons.

It sort of is, but in marginal and making World Cup ice they're likely to lean on it a bit and lose more to melt. Also, that number isn't gospel and if I find the study showing anywhere from 180k through 300k measured density across different resorts I'll link it. If they are getting 200,000 gallons per acre then my numbers are valid - or near enough - for 3' depth instead of the bare minimum 2.5'. I also padded the length and width I used.

They can still get it done in 83 hours plus startup/shutdown, and faster if they get better weather. I don't know exactly how they're set up so I used what a guy I talked to one ski day told me for 10k max. Whatever their maximum flow is, they'll definitely use it if they have the temps!

 

[doublediamond]

No need to let the snow cure before grooming it out for the WC. Curing the snow is to let it drain so it’s not ice. FIS wants ice for the race so it holds up to the traffic (less ruts).

That’s why SS is closed the week following the race so they can break up the ice and make public quality snow on top.

 

[doublediamond]

They need more than 2.5 feet for the race. That may be enough to open the run to the public, but they need to groom in terrain features to make it tricky for the women.

I’ve seen estimates of 4 feet needed and 100 hours to make enough for the race.

 

[Newpylong]

It sort of is, but in marginal and making World Cup ice they're likely to lean on it a bit and lose more to melt. Also, that number isn't gospel and if I find the study showing anywhere from 180k through 300k measured density across different resorts I'll link it. If they are getting 200,000 gallons per acre then my numbers are valid - or near enough - for 3' depth instead of the bare minimum 2.5'. I also padded the length and width I used.

They can still get it done in 83 hours plus startup/shutdown, and faster if they get better weather. I don't know exactly how they're set up so I used what a guy I talked to one ski day told me for 10k max. Whatever their maximum flow is, they'll definitely use it if they have the temps!

For sure not gospel but it's as close as you can get to a baseline and the early season stuff would be on the wet end of the scale for sure.

Torrent had an older study that went from 160 to 300 which was superseded by one with 180 to 200 as the standard: http://www.torrentee.com/pdf/Snow-water_conversion_chart.pdf

Ratnik latest is at 180 in average: http://ratnik.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Snow-Science_updated.pdf

We always used 200 for capacity planning.

They shoot for 48" minimum across the venue the estimated snowmaking time is around 100 hours in ideal temps.

 

[slatham]

Models starting to hone in on Friday-Sat November 11-12 as current forecasted arrival of colder weather. Have to see how this evolves on timing/strength/duration. But the pattern change many of the pro mets have been speaking about is now starting to show. Fingers and skis crossed.

 

[Great Bear]

Models starting to hone in on Friday-Sat November 11-12 as current forecasted arrival of colder weather. Have to see how this evolves on timing/strength/duration. But the pattern change many of the pro mets have been speaking about is now starting to show. Fingers and skis crossed.

I'm looking at the 10 day on weather.com and for sure it is showing some low temps below freezing, but high temps still in the 40's. I admit i'm not sure if those are taking elevation into account or not, or if that is some sort of more generic Rutland weather station. Nor do i know enough about snowmaking to know if this would allow for any sort of real production. To me it looks like a dubious proposition in a way but hoping for the cold temps to come! Attached is a screen shot of the most recent 10 day forecast from weather.com for Killington.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

Models starting to hone in on Friday-Sat November 11-12 as current forecasted arrival of colder weather. Have to see how this evolves on timing/strength/duration. But the pattern change many of the pro mets have been speaking about is now starting to show. Fingers and skis crossed.

i hope to see it, but this time last week it showed a winter storm on nov 5-6

 

[KustyTheKlown]

I'm looking at the 10 day on weather.com and for sure it is showing some low temps below freezing, but high temps still in the 40's. I admit i'm not sure if those are taking elevation into account or not, or if that is some sort of more generic Rutland weather station. Nor do i know enough about snowmaking to know if this would allow for any sort of real production. To me it looks like a dubious proposition in a way but hoping for the cold temps to come!

weather.com doesnt take mountain point elevation into account at all. dot gov for mountain point forecasts.

 

[Newpylong]

I've used this in the past, not sure where the data source is from....has been relatively accurate.

Killington Peak Weather Forecast (1291m)

Killington Peak, Coolidge Range, Appalachians, United States Mountain weather forecast for 1291m. Detailed 6 day mountain weather forecast for climbers and mountaineers.

www.mountain-forecast.com

 

[Ski2LiveLive2Ski]

So apart from the race - what do folks see as a reasonable possibility for K to open skiing to public?

I see they changed the date they provide On The Snow from Nov 4 to Nov 10. Seem possible?

 

[drjeff]

So apart from the race - what do folks see as a reasonable possibility for K to open skiing to public?

I see they changed the date they provide On The Snow from Nov 4 to Nov 10. Seem possible?

*IF* the 10 day models are semi accurate (and that's a definite IF), the suggestion is that the pattern change to more typical, colder weather happens somewhere around next weekend (Veteran's Day Weekend) and then if the cold does arrive, gotta give the snowmakers a few days of putting some product down. Might now be until you head towards the weekend of Nov 19/20 that they can get open. Again, it's all dependent on when the current weather pattern keeping the East in the warm sector finally breaks down and then what level of "cold" that air that will replace the warm is? Will it be a dramatic shift from warm to cold, or will it take a serious of re-inforcing cold fronts to get the snowamking temps into the East Coast over a series of weather events? Guess we'll know in a few weeks

 

[slatham]

i hope to see it, but this time last week it showed a winter storm on nov 5-6

Based on your using the word “it” I presume you are looking at one model (or forecast)? Any one run of one specific model 7-10 days out will show various and spurious things. The key in the long term is to look at multiple models and in particular the ensembles, compare them to prior runs, etc. It also helps to look at both surface forecasts as well as the upper levels. And of course having access to pros (I am an amateur) also helps.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

Based on your using the word “it” I presume you are looking at one model (or forecast)? Any one run of one specific model 7-10 days out will show various and spurious things. The key in the long term is to look at multiple models and in particular the ensembles, compare them to prior runs, etc. It also helps to look at both surface forecasts as well as the upper levels. And of course having access to pros (I am an amateur) also helps.

gfs is the 'it'