Killllington 🎿🏂🏂🎿🎿🏂🏂🎿😀

[Newpylong]

I fully expect the K12000 and Triple Rat to make an appearance.

 

[drjeff]

The TA fans weren't on most of the day, either.

I believe from a pic I saw the fans, or atleast some of the fans, they were running down at the base were sled mounted Demac/Lenko Titans, not the tower mounted TA's

 

[drjeff]

I fully expect the K12000 and Triple Rat to make an appearance.

The noise level is going to get LOUD!!

 

[Newpylong]

I believe from a pic I saw the fans, or atleast some of the fans, they were running down at the base were sled mounted Demac/Lenko Titans, not the tower mounted TA's

The Titans are pretty much new (they demoed them last year I think ended up buying them) are far better in marginal than the ancient TAs they have so that makes sense.

 

[Yo VT Raps]

Needs help ASAP for the race but help is coming.

 

[FBGM]

Snowmaking ponds filling back up nicely across the northeast….

 

[ss20]

I agree they should be able to make it, although NWS point forecast still shows even at 2700' by K it still goes ever so slightly above freezing during the day at least Tuesday, Wed, Thursday. So they can probably run 24/7 at the top of Superstar, but not so sure about the bottom of Superstar. It will depend a lot on what the actual temps end up being. A couple degrees either way can make a big difference.

Don't worry too much about elevation. They can push snow from the top if they have to. IIRC they had a year where they had marginal temps but a lot of windows and we're able to make a ton of snow up top. The plan was to push it down to the bottom but at the last second it became moot as it got very cold.

I'm still leaning slightly towards no race. But they could pull it off with a bit of luck or just no bad luck. If the forecast gets any warmer or there's a couple nights where it's 3-5 degrees warmer than expected they're toast. It's soooo close.

 

[slatham]

Don't worry too much about elevation. They can push snow from the top if they have to. IIRC they had a year where they had marginal temps but a lot of windows and we're able to make a ton of snow up top. The plan was to push it down to the bottom but at the last second it became moot as it got very cold.

I'm still leaning slightly towards no race. But they could pull it off with a bit of luck or just no bad luck. If the forecast gets any warmer or there's a couple nights where it's 3-5 degrees warmer than expected they're toast. It's soooo close.

It was just last year when the “push down from the top” was a possible strategy, and then the weather turned. We have a turn this year too. Forecast models will have to be very wrong for this not to happen.

 

[drjeff]

Bottom line is SS is about 4000 ft long... they need about 4ft (or more) of snow on it for the WC... Not sure that a realistic window/temperature gradient over the next 2 weeks exists where they could make enough snow up high and push it down low, and not have enough temps down low as well to make enough down there to allow the WC to happen.

Almost no doubt in my mind looking at the forecast for next week if it holds true that the K snowmakers and groomers will get it done to pass snow control (regardless of what Skiology Matt will like prognosticate more doom and gloom again this year), bit unless you get say a month where the wet bulb at the top of Superstar is say low 20's and 1200 ft or so lower at the base its mid 30's for the entire month, the vast majority of what they need to make to get the race to happen is going to happen at the elevation of each and every fan gun/snow gun, not higher up and pushed down via cat/winch cat

 

[Newpylong]

Can someone tell me what they have for lows for the next 10 at the top or bottom of SS? Not happy with my wx source thus far this fall.

 

[Smellytele]

2700'
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then a chance of rain showers between 8am and 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a west wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. Blustery, with a west wind 20 to 24 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 21 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. West wind 9 to 17 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. East wind 8 to 17 mph.
Wednesday
Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Windy, with an east wind 17 to 22 mph becoming east 26 to 31 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 27 mph increasing to 32 to 37 mph after midnight.
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Very windy, with a west wind 34 to 41 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Very windy, with a west wind 38 to 43 mph decreasing to 30 to 35 mph after midnight.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 26 mph.


3400'
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 11am, then a chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a west wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Windy, with a west wind 23 to 28 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 27. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 25 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. Blustery, with a northwest wind 13 to 20 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light.
Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Breezy, with an east wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph after midnight.
Wednesday
Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Very windy, with an east wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 38 to 43 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Very windy, with a northwest wind 26 to 31 mph becoming west 36 to 41 mph in the evening.
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Very windy, with a west wind 40 to 44 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Very windy, with a west wind 39 to 46 mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 26. Windy, with a west wind 31 to 36 mph decreasing to 22 to 27 mph in the afternoon.

 

[ss20]

2700'
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then a chance of rain showers between 8am and 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a west wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

@Newpylong

Also a good resource- NOAA mountain top forecasts. For the summit of K- https://www.weather.gov/btv/mountain_enhanced?loc=KILLINGTON PEAK

Of course Supe isn't the summit but we're not talking a huge difference.

 

[slatham]

@Newpylong

Also a good resource- NOAA mountain top forecasts. For the summit of K- https://www.weather.gov/btv/mountain_enhanced?loc=KILLINGTON PEAK

Of course Supe isn't the summit but we're not talking a huge difference.

I’ve found the mountain forecast link above is way better than the “point and click” at some random elevation (which I believe is an interpolation off of the GFS). That said, the mountain forecast was too warm leading into this cold snowmaking episode. And I believe too warm now - I will take the under on 30 at 6pm tomorrow (though I always have to remind myself, cold comes in slow…still taking the under).

Models and soundings are key, but if you want a quick and easy I’d use the mountain forecast.

Also, if you want different elevations just chose a nearby mountain, like Ludlow (Okemo) at 3,320’ which is slightly lower than the bottom of North Ridge and slightly higher than half way down SS.

 

[cdskier]

I’ve found the mountain forecast link above is way better than the “point and click” at some random elevation (which I believe is an interpolation off of the GFS).

I doubt NWS is basing it on GFS alone. More likely they're basing it on their own NBM forecast.

 

[slatham]

I doubt NWS is basing it on GFS alone. More likely they're basing it on their own NBM forecast.

May have changed but I was told this directly from a pro met.

 

[cdskier]

May have changed but I was told this directly from a pro met.

That would mean that every forecast on their site when you search for a city/town/zip is also based only on GFS which makes no sense. When you search for a city/town, the website is just picking the "point" forecast on the map for you with what is applicable for that town. It doesn't generate the forecast from one database/model when you search for a city/town and then a different one when you click on the map.

 

[Newpylong]

Thanks for the info. I'd say if those temps hold true or lean any warmer it's really going to come down to the wire. Those are really only (low end) marginal temps at night (with a lot of wind) until Thursday where it looks like it drops down to the low 20s. That's just getting into good snowmaking weather if humidity plays nice. Last year it was terrible up to around now but then they really got some really good temps. Fingers crossed!

 

[joshua segal]

Anyone know by what day Killington must pass snow control for the World Cup?

 

[Newpylong]

Latest update looks like teens later in the week here at 1300 feet east of K by 20 miles. I think they'll get it.

 

[Keelhauled]

Anyone know by what day Killington must pass snow control for the World Cup?

Wednesday I believe.