MLK Sunday / Monday (1/17 - 1/18) Storm Discussion Thread

[billski]

I'm looking at that latest NWS snow forecast map showing me sitting right in that 11.0 bullseye in NE Mass and thinking it might be a good opportunity to earn turns locally, which also would mean no nasty drive. But several other options, including Magic, are tempting ... I'm not in a position to pre-position so doubt I'll make a call until well after the snow starts flying.

The problem with your locale, you know, is that every place nearby is going to be mobbed.

 

[wa-loaf]

The problem with your locale, you know, is that every place nearby is going to be mobbed.

A stormy morning will keep folks away for a while. Re-evaluating my options ...

 

[billski]

Matt is live streaming an analysis right now. Looks like a lot of volatility in the forecast, but north of I-90 is key.

 

[billski]

Pulled the trigger.
Will be at Magic MLK Monday.

http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?p=501534#post501534

If you show, give a shout!

 

[wa-loaf]

Pulled the trigger.
Will be at Magic MLK Monday.

http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?p=501534#post501534

If you show, give a shout!

The NECN forcast has only 3-6" for that area. 10-12" here in Worcester county. And a pretty steep drop-off when you get north of Manchester.

 

[billski]

The NECN forcast has only 3-6" for that area. 10-12" here in Worcester county. And a pretty steep drop-off when you get north of Manchester.

Could be, but I believe in Mountain magic. Besides the last thing I want is to ski with 10,000 of my closest friends at wawa or crotch on MLK weekend. Did you watch Matt's assessment? There is still a wide degree of variability in it all. I'm prepositioning so I don't have to deal with the drive.
Besides, I've friends in the area to visit afterwards.
Happy to flip the dice, sometimes I lose, but sometimes when I win, I win pretty big.

 

[billski]

The best analysis I've seen today comes from the eastern wx forum:

"What a tough forecast..basically until it gets going noone is going to know for sure WTF will happen"

 

[riverc0il]

Just started snowing big flakes here in Ashland. Already coming down at a pretty good clip. Surprised this is getting going so early up here....

 

[polski]

The problem with your locale, you know, is that every place nearby is going to be mobbed.

Not the places that aren't lift-served ;-)

 

[billski]

Not the places that aren't lift-served ;-)

I shouldn't have to say that now, should I???

 

[wa-loaf]

Raining here.

Hope it doesn't last too long.

 

[WakeboardMom]

Raining here.

Hope it doesn't last too long.

HUH!?!? Didn't you post earlier today that you're supposed to get a significant accumulation of fluffy white stuff?

I think we're supposed to get like 8 inches here on the MA/NH border...?

 

[wa-loaf]

HUH!?!? Didn't you post earlier today that you're supposed to get a significant accumulation of fluffy white stuff?

I think we're supposed to get like 8 inches here on the MA/NH border...?

That's still the forecast, but really depends on when/where the temp changes. Still mid 30's here.

 

[WakeboardMom]

That's still the forecast, but really depends on when/where the temp changes. Still mid 30's here.

Yeah...it is here too...

 

[deadheadskier]

anyone got an updated accumulation map?

 

[Euler]

snowing in Putney,VT

 

[wa-loaf]

anyone got an updated accumulation map?

 

[deadheadskier]

Looks like Gunstock might be a good option for tomorrow.

Wish the dark Blue was just a bit further northwest. 8-10 inches of heavy wet and most of the glades will open at Ragged.

 

[riverc0il]

I wouldn't trust that Accuweather map.

Billski's toolbox has the NWS maps for New England:
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/

And I trust NECN's mets who usually are accurate in their predictions with a regional focus on all of New England (map is in the video):
http://www.necn.com/weather

But these maps also don't take individual mountain elevation into consideration which is always something to consider as well.

The concensus so far seems to be north of Manchester/Concord area totals will drop off very sharply. 6" for Gunstock and Ragged does not seem out of the question though.

 

[deadheadskier]

Even 6 inches might open some of the Ravine up. While we haven't gotten any snow in the past two weeks, we really haven't lost any either. Ski Patrol said it was plenty skiable, but wouldn't be after a couple hundred people go down it.

The good news is that it appears that once they do open glades, they tend to leave them open. Tree Hugger is pretty boney in places right now, but still open.