MLK Sunday / Monday (1/17 - 1/18) Storm Discussion Thread

[WJenness]

So what's going to happen Monday night into anything? I just noticed that crapuweather is calling for 8-12" of heavy snow Sunday night into Monday for Newry, ME.

What do all you weather geeks out there have to say?

-w

 

[billski]

Nws

NWS Takes a more reasonable approach:

A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL THREATEN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE SUN INTO MON WITH THE RISK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE REGION...BUT THE STORM TRACK AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.-- End Changed Discussion --

If this does indeed develop, I may be getting a tad sick on Tuesday...

 

[hammer]

From the latest NWS discussion:

ALL OF THIS POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME RANGE /EVENT STILL 72 HRS AWAY/ THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY WET SNOW APPEARS FROM NORTHERN CT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN RI /POSSIBLY INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/ AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE I495 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST MA AND POINTS NORTHWEST INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS. LESS QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MA. THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE HEAVY WET SNOW AND POSSIBLE DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CT/NW RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS MAY BE MOST VULNERABLE. SOUTHEAST MA MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO POWER OUTAGES IF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MATERIALIZES.

Looks like lots of heavy stuff near home but none where it counts...:???:

 

[billski]

From the latest NWS discussion:

Looks like lots of heavy stuff near home but none where it counts...:???:

'cept maybe Sundown and Thunderbolt

As of Tuesday, Josh Fox thinks this is a bust for snow. Want to hear his updated thinking 3 days later.

Matt Noyes appears to be AWOL, reportedly on the west coast.

 

[soulseller]

'cept maybe Sundown and Thunderbolt

As of Tuesday, Josh Fox thinks this is a bust for snow. Want to hear his updated thinking 3 days later.

Matt Noyes appears to be AWOL, reportedly on the west coast.

New post is up, nothing special this weekend, and ~6" Monday morning.

The good news is the monster lining up over the sierras right now (they are calling for 8-12' from Monday-Thursday) may make it over here for next weekend.

 

[Euler]

Things are looking up for SoVT! This from the 11PM discussion out of NWS Albany office:

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...

...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMTS APPROACH
WRNG AMTS OVER SRN VERMONT..

I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

 

[deadheadskier]

A foot in Danbury, NH would do wonders. Especially wet heavy snow. Love the POW, but my mountain needs some base in the woods to open things up and last a while.

 

[billski]

I'm looking seriously at SoVT for Monday. Be watching this progress all day today.

 

[STREETSKIER]

Josh fox is a jersey skier....

 

[mlctvt]

Accuweather is forecasting 4"-8" Sunday night for southern VT.
NOAA is forecasting mixed precip. Hopefully any mix will be at low elevations.
Snow showers for therest of the week through Thursday so we could pick up a few more inches there too.

 

[Johnskiismore]

A few inches would be nice, currently 45F here........

 

[billski]

Taunton NWS is stickking their neck out:

 

[polski]

Matt Noyes saying parts of eastern New England could see a foot of pasty snow. I'd take it. North country might miss out on this one but apparently has a couple shots at decent snow later this week.

 

[billski]

wawa might win on Monday.

 

[Greg]

Wow! Albany NWS has 3-5" for Sundown and Taunton is calling for 3-7"! Better than the predominantly rain event they were predicting...

 

[billski]

Wow! Albany NWS has 3-5" for Sundown and Taunton is calling for 3-7"! Better than the predominantly rain event they were predicting...

This is a hard one to predict. The accumulations have a high degree of variability since we are so close to the freezing mark. I've watched the forecasts change every six hours. I'm seriously thinking about pre-positioning myself some place tonight so I avoid driving during the changeover. I'll make a final call around noontime.

Based on temps alone, I may find myself at a southern VT resort with a red chair, even though there will be higher accums to the SE.

I am expecting high moisture content, heavy snow. Staring at waxes right now.

 

[Greg]

6-10" on the Thunderbolt. Just sayin....

 

[billski]

6-10" on the Thunderbolt. Just sayin....

Would be perfect.
Seems everything is going right for them!

 

[billski]

Albany has something interesting to say this morning at 8:45 am. Looking for a little mountain Magic out of this.
Just about to pull the trigger on a destination.

FURTHER
EAST...4-10" INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN
MA...WITH 3-6" IN VALLEYS. WE STILL AS MUCH AS 6"-12" COULD
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHEST CATSKILLS.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY NOW REMAINS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AND THE ULTIMATE LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIO. IF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHERE TO BE EVEN A LITTLE HEAVIER
THAN WE NOW THINK...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EASILY EXCEED THE 7 INCH
AMOUNT (IN 12 HOURS) OR EVEN 9 INCH AMOUNT (IN 24)

SNOW RATIOS COULD VARY QUITE A BIT
WITH THIS STORM...INITIALLY CLOSER TO A 5:1 LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIO...BUT ENDING UP CLOSER TO 10:1 IN THE VALLEY BY LATE

NIGHT...AND 12:1 HIGHER TERRAIN.

 

[polski]

I'm looking at that latest NWS snow forecast map showing me sitting right in that 11.0 bullseye in NE Mass and thinking it might be a good opportunity to earn turns locally, which also would mean no nasty drive. But several other options, including Magic, are tempting ... I'm not in a position to pre-position so doubt I'll make a call until well after the snow starts flying.