Monday 2/2/2015

[BenedictGomez]

I just pulled the 12z NAM and it's a tiny bit (barely) more north, but it's definitely warmer.

And here's the 12z NAM total snowfall for storm duration.

 

[BenedictGomez]

For those skiers who dare to ski the Connecticut alps.

 

[BenedictGomez]

12z GFS is out. Come just slighty north, reduces snow just totals a bit.

This is starting to look like a potentially nasty ice storm in central NJ

 

[BenedictGomez]

Spawn of JB's final call.

He notes that while there was a northern shift, he believes the real world temps will be colder than the models are currently appreciating, which is why his "fringe" areas have more snow than the models depict.

 

[steamboat1]

My weather guru for NYC just came out with his final forecast for the city. 1"-3" of slush followed by 1"-2" of pure rain. He feels the city should have flood warnings in effect not winter storm warnings. He still predicts all snow north of White Plains.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Final call

Razor's edge here, but Shawnee and Camelback would pick up roughly 10"'ish if this is the solution.
BM only 5 or 6" + sleet or rain.

 

[Not Sure]

Final call

Razor's edge here, but Shawnee and Camelback would pick up roughly 10"'ish if this is the solution.
BM only 5 or 6" + sleet or rain.

Temps? JT hanging in with 30 . 34 where I'm at . Elk is going to be awesome.
edit .......Earlier radar seemed to have a lot of moisture moving due North , now appreasrs to have an Northeast flow....High playing defense?

 

[abc]

Oh dear! As little as I want snow at my driveway, ICE is what I absolutely don't need!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Somewhat similar to EPAWA for the Poconos, a little less optimistic.

If these ice predictions are even remotely accurate I'm either working from home or going in after the 9am hoard.

 

[billski]

:uzi::uzi:I hope the groundhog suffocates in the snow.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Final call

 

[abc]

I hope the "no mixing" forecast for my area is right!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Now that this storm is formed and on radar, the first indications from a few professional mets (those that are bold enough to speak) does not sound encouraging at all.

EDIT: And now a third thinks mixing could get all the way up into s.NY and even CT. Hope they're wrong.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Accuweather chimes in with an update....

They just went real healthy in parts of MA & NH. Not only that, but if HM is correct, this storm will bring GOOD snowfall all the way up into n.VT and New Hampshire versus what expectations were.

If you listen to his video, where you see 6-12 on this map in VT and NH, he says he's more confident it will be on the 12" of things than the 6".

 

[billski]

Accuweather chimes in with an update....

They just went real healthy in parts of MA & NH.

Has anyone ever kept track of how accurately each of these weather diservices makes the call for mountains? Maybe I'll start a scorecard. How would we measure this? 7/5/3/2/1 days out? Maybe we just let each AZ'er track the area/region they care about and add up the scores?

 

[billski]

A Vermont Perspective

 

[BenedictGomez]

CBS Albany update - You can see a lot of the pro mets have latched onto this idea from looking at the "real world" storm and are pushing the big snow totals farther north.

Then there are other mets who seem to be sticking with the models as depicted. It will be interesting.

 

[BenedictGomez]

A Vermont Perspective

Interesting in that he's saying the exact opposite as HM.

HM is calling for 10 to 12"+ in the same parts of Vermont where this guy is calling for 1 to 3"

 

[billski]

Interesting in that he's saying the exact opposite as HM.

HM is calling for 10 to 12"+ in the same parts of Vermont where this guy is calling for 1 to 3"

Roger lives in northern Vermont and creates these reports for Vt. Electric Power Coop, so he's got a vested interest in getting it right.

 

[BenedictGomez]

MOAR Maps!!!!! (final call from a NE stormchaser).

Aggressive for down in PA/NJ, hope it pans out for her.