New storm on the way

[tnt1234]

Latest model runs trend positive. Hopefully they continue when I wake up and check tommorow

Any chance for the catskills?

N.VT seems good to go as of now.

 

[JimG.]

Gore Sat.

 

[Quietman]

I'll settle for some base builder. Some quality snow on top at some point would be nice.

Very true, but very sad that we are hoping for base building snow in Feb.

 

[ScottySkis]

Any chance for the catskills?

N.VT seems good to go as of now.

This Friday storm into weekend not good for Catskills.
I posted what Rebecca from Facebook said few hours ago in weather thread

 

[Smellytele]

Latest model runs trend positive. Hopefully they continue when I wake up and check tommorow

Latest runs seem a little more moist.

 

[NYDB]

Any chance for the catskills?

N.VT seems good to go as of now.

 

[skiur]

Seems to be pushing later on Friday, gonna make for a shitty ride north on Friday.

 

[fbrissette]

Northern Vermont appears to be the big winner. The above map undestimates snow amounts.

However, Saturday will be brutally cold (near 0 and negative double digit wind chill).

 

[bdfreetuna]

Planning on Smuggs Tuesday and Jay Wednesday, or vice versa if weather requires... hopefully avoid any rain in the midweek stretch that looks fairly active with a few different possibilities (only GDPS seems to be showing rain) and get some snow in the evenings to smooth out possible freeze/thaw conditions.

Pretty excited though and glad I didn't pull the cancellation trigger too early.

 

[drjeff]

Northern Vermont appears to be the big winner. The above map undestimates snow amounts.

However, Saturday will be brutally cold (near 0 and negative double digit wind chill).

Temps Saturday are sure to be a shock to many folks, given the few really cold, windy days we've had this season to date...

 

[BenedictGomez]

This is going to be a fantastic event for much of ski country (no, not you Poconos, you always get screwed), and at worst a really nice, wet snow, base builder. But the drive here looks horrendous with rain, icing, then below freezing & then crashing temps, etc... Tonight's really the best time to leave if you want to ski this weekend, but I cant swing that. If I didn't have an infant I'd drive to n.VT tonight & work remotely, but alas I'm gonna' have to sit this one out.

 

[snoseek]

Not the storm we want but the storm we need.

Also monday could be a sleeper day at some locations

 

[NYDB]

Driving up to SoVT Thursday evening and then will wake up friday and see what ends up happening. Friday morning, I may drive as far north as sugarbush for better /more snow, but hoping for Pico or K, or maybe stay local at Magic if conditions end up more favorable for friday Snow totals.

Love storm riding so I am very stoked for Friday. Friday afternoon should be awesome someplace.

 

[cdskier]

Driving up to SoVT Thursday evening and then will wake up friday and see what ends up happening. Friday morning, I may drive as far north as sugarbush for better /more snow, but hoping for Pico or K, or maybe stay local at Magic if conditions end up more favorable for friday Snow totals.

Love storm riding so I am very stoked for Friday. Friday afternoon should be awesome someplace.

I'm nervous about Thursday evening's drive...I'm really hoping that dry slot materializes and helps out keeping the roads somewhat clear. I'm planning to drive up to SB Thursday afternoon/evening. Personally if it was up to me, I'd be leaving tonight and working remotely tomorrow from up there. Unfortunately I'm not the only one involved...

 

[ScottySkis]

From Rebecca yesterday post
But look awesome for all North of Albany Hills for NY and New England
Later today into tomorrow, we have a storm, bringing snow from Texas into the Great Lakes. For the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High pressure will move into Northern New England on Wednesday allowing for a dip in temperatures a couple of waves will move north and east into our region for the 2nd half of this week.

The storm will move into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday, and a warm front will move up the coast. How far north the front gets will be a key as to where the most snow falls. Initially, the air will be cold enough for an icy mix and snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across our southern areas into Northwest New Jersey. right now, these areas most likely will see a lull for Thursday afternoon as temperatures warm, rain returns for Thursday evening /night. Rain should change over to light snow for your Friday.

All of this will work North and east for our Thursday. This sleet/freezing rain risk extends into, western, southern, and central New York as well as the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, Massachusetts, & Rhode Island. It starts out as some snow, with some accumulation likely, then there will be a change over to a mix, and then rain. North of these areas more in the way of snow/with some mix possible. These areas will most likely experience a short lived break before the second wave brings back the precipitation.

These two waves won’t be major snow producers. Northern into central Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, New York State south of I -90 and north and west of New York City and Long Island, Southern New England northward into Southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire a Dusting to 3 inches of snow will be possible by Friday. Areas around Portland and Maine's coastal plain, most likely will see around the same. New York State north of I-90, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire into the rest of Maine 3-6 inches of snow, with perhaps a couple inches or so above that for the mountains.
Southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, most of New Jersey, New York City and along the southern New England coast this will be mostly rain, with some mixing at times.

"

 

[NYDB]

I'm nervous about Thursday evening's drive...I'm really hoping that dry slot materializes and helps out keeping the roads somewhat clear. I'm planning to drive up to SB Thursday afternoon/evening. Personally if it was up to me, I'd be leaving tonight and working remotely tomorrow from up there. Unfortunately I'm not the only one involved...

Yeah, I'd be more nervous if I was heading further north Thursday. But getting off 91 at Brattleboro where temps are predicted to be above freezing. Rte 30 might be slick, but it is well travelled and runs at low elevation through Jamaica.

 

[fbrissette]

... New York State north of I-90, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire into the rest of Maine 3-6 inches of snow, with perhaps a couple inches or so above that for the mountains.

"

I don't know when this was written but this is incorrect. !2 inches for Northern Vermont is pessimistic, and 20+ possible at this point.

 

[ScottySkis]

I don't know when this was written but this is incorrect. !2 inches for Northern Vermont is pessimistic, and 20+ possible at this point.[/QUOTEold
Above from yesterday..

New post from today below

Not much has changed from my earlier post........Here are the highlights.

The 2nd wave's track has shifted a little to the south and east.

Winter Weather Advisories are posted for most of Pennsylvania, New York State (northern and west of New York City), and southern and central New England. There are Winter Storm Watches for far northern and northeast New York State to Northern New England.

Ice accumulation for areas north and west of New York City and Philadelphia…. southeast into northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey of up to a quarter of an inch, with perhaps some higher amounts are possible. The Poconos, Catskills, Hudson Valley Highlands and Interior Connecticut could also see ice accretion like this.

Heavy rain for Southern New England and the Middle Atlantic Region, total rain amounts of up to three inches are possible. Don’t be surprised if a few thunderstorms pop up in these regions as well. The SPC has a marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Maryland, Delaware, Southeast Pennsylvania, and into southern New Jersey.

The 2nd piece of energy (Main wave) track has shifted south and east.

Most of the snow will be in Northwest Pennsylvania, western and upstate New York, and northern into central New England.

Here is a map showing my general ideas for the entire event. This could change as I get a better handle on the track of the main piece of energy.

 

[ss20]

I don't know when this was written but this is incorrect. !2 inches for Northern Vermont is pessimistic, and 20+ possible at this point.

I don't know about that. I know that's what the NWS is predicting but it seems very bullish for me. I think a period of sleet/freezing rain is certain, even in northern VT Thursday-Thursday night. It's just unknown whether that's going to be a few hours of mix or 12 hours of mix.

I think the only safe bet is by Saturday AM Killington on south will have less than 6" of every imaginable precip from the sky, and north of K there'll be 6"-12" of mixed glob that's predominantly snow. Maybe the summit of Jay and Stowe get 14-18".

I'm sitting this one out....see how things play out and hopefully going hard next week. I think there's a 30% chance I get burned on this decision and somewhere up North stays snow and gets epic real fast. But the reality is I think Thursday is sleet and avoiding iced-over lifts.
And Friday would be a Sierra cement powder day at best, but more than likely a break-through-crust kinda day.

Another few rounds of weather coming in next week.

 

[bdfreetuna]

I think there's a 30% chance I get burned on this decision and somewhere up North stays snow and gets epic real fast.

about to be epic AF up north, you snooze you lose