Northeast Christmas Present???

[drjeff]

Hope you're right ... My gut is on every storm so far this year (and most last winter too?) the models move the track more to the west over time, which obviously would not be good here. But I admit I haven't had a chance to pay real attention to this system yet.

The models are REALLY trying to flatten out the big dip in the jetstream and turn this thing into a Great Lakes Cuttter, which would be BAD for snow in the Northeast. What we need now is for some assemblance of the Eastern "kink" in the Jetstream that kept yesterdays storm from hugging the coast and kept snow to SE New England to remain, if that does, we could very well see a secondary low form off the VA/DE/NJ Coast (like we had anout 10 days ago) and then get a snow event here.

The funny thing about many of the models right now is they seem to just want to boot all this cold air out of here like it's nothing, and thats just seems based on past events like it's going to be a much tougher thing to do, and if we don't get a secondary coastal low forming, this cold air could cause an icing event for much of interior New England

Still about 1,000,000 variables in play right now

 

[jaja111]

Sweet, I'll be skiing the steeps of WNY!

Actually, I might try to hit up a NELSAP area or poach trails at Holiday Valley where the lifts aren't running yet. There just better be a big New Year's storm as well.

Uh... HV's been open for a few weeks now. We went Sunday night 12-13 and had at least 9 trails, after suffering through a few pale ales while it naired from 4-4:30pm. Nice spring conditions though!

Last night (12-20) was pretty good. Little chewed up but some nice sugar piles on the trail edges. 23 trails open as of this post. Pray for good weather - the weekend looks good with colder temps. Combined with some good grooming it'll be decent for what you can get here. Xmas day - not so good: freezing nair followed by regular nair. We'll see.

 

[nelsapbm]

Our local mets in BTV are calling for snow to rain....still a ways out though.

 

[drjeff]

Starting to be a bit more model signs of the secondary low forming off the East Coast (still need to watch things closely as this storm basically even hasn't formed yet)

If we do get the secondary low formation, that should ensure that we'll get more frozen precip than wet precip over ski country, the issue will likely be though what type of frozen precip and for how long??

 

[skidbump]

Fri nite into Sat freezing rain to rain heavy at times.

 

[billski]

Fri nite into Sat freezing rain to rain heavy at times.

Where? That would seriously suck.

 

[Glenn]

Looks messy in South Eastern VT. We plan on heading up Christmas Day night...so I'm glad to see this won't start until after mid night. They're calling for sleet and freezing rain. Blah! But it beats plain rain.

 

[RootDKJ]

Doesn't look so good for Blue

Christmas Day: A slight chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1pm, then a chance of freezing rain between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of rain after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: Rain or freezing rain likely, becoming all rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

 

[drjeff]

The best thing to do for this one as it gets closer to see how the chances for snow are is too look at the NOAA aviation weather forcasts, where you can see the temps at altitudes. What to look for is how much warm air courtesy of the primary low that's headed to the Great Lakes gets in aloft prior to the secondary low forming off the coast and starting to draw some cold air back in aloft. Lots of warm air above say 5,000ft and we'll be looking at a bunch of freezing rain as it's likely that the cold to some extent will stay locked into especially interior valleys. If the warm air doesn't get too much below say 10,000 then we're more likely to see sleet than freezing rain, and if the cold air barely makes a dent below say 15,000 then our snow chances go up.

Gotta hope for an early formation of the secondary low off the coast to help keep the cold air in at all levels of the atmosphere!

 

[SKIQUATTRO]

also looks like another system after christmas beginning to take shape...

 

[highpeaksdrifter]

What do you guys think for the Northern ADKs and Greens? Reports I've seen are rain/sleet/snow to all snow on NOAA.

 

[soulseller]

I've got my sights on Burke this weekend, seems to be the closest place that isn't calling for rain.

 

[Moe Ghoul]

What do you guys think for the Northern ADKs and Greens? Reports I've seen are rain/sleet/snow to all snow on NOAA.

I'm leaning towards the dax, gonna make a decision Sat, may head up Sunday.

 

[tarponhead]

What do you guys think for the Northern ADKs and Greens? Reports I've seen are rain/sleet/snow to all snow on NOAA.

Yeah. We are heading up to Whiteface Saturday. More then a little concerned about the icing. Probably leave dirty jerzey around noon and hope to clear Albany by 3PM thinking north of there icing will not be an issue???? Big travel day so hopefully NY DOT has their road crews making things right. Regardless, Monday and Tuesday look great temp wise for Whiteface. I'll take whatever Sunday gives us. Just good to be back there again.

 

[highpeaksdrifter]

Yeah. We are heading up to Whiteface Saturday. More then a little concerned about the icing. Probably leave dirty jerzey around noon and hope to clear Albany by 3PM thinking north of there icing will not be an issue???? Big travel day so hopefully NY DOT has their road crews making things right. Regardless, Monday and Tuesday look great temp wise for Whiteface. I'll take whatever Sunday gives us. Just good to be back there again.

We where going to head up Sat. too, but now we're going to leave Xmas nite after the extended family leaves to beat the icey weather. Drive safe.

 

[tarponhead]

We where going to head up Sat. too, but now we're going to leave Xmas nite after the extended family leaves to beat the icey weather. Drive safe.

You too.

Window still holding (based on NOAA). Woodstock area has freezing rain turning over to rain after 10AM. Glens Falls area has freezing rain turning to rain after 1PM. And deeper back in the ADKs Au Sable forks) looks like strictly a sleet event after 7 AM. Will decide go/no-go tomorrow.

Merry Christmas all.

 

[Warp Daddy]

Big Ice storm on the way here tonite 1/4 inch of ice followed by NAIR sleet and other crappy mix . Shades of out infamous 1998 ice storm --sure hope not that was really devastating .

Feel like crap today very heavy cold , Laryngitis yuk and the troops are all here for a week .

Gotta keep away from the grandkids so i don't infect them --------------------