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NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!

mriceyman

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I'm looking at Stowe which has 39 and rain. Jay says 35 and sleet/freezing rain.

This:

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs192hr_sfc_ptyp.gif

Does not look promising even if its a week out.

Its a week out and every run has been an improvement.. yesterday it was far worse.. little steps from here on in and it will be a great week for c-n vt..all of vt should see snow even if it turns to rain for a portion


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BenedictGomez

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Its a week out and every run has been an improvement.. yesterday it was far worse.. little steps from here on in and it will be a great week for c-n vt..all of vt should see snow even if it turns to rain for a portion

At this point I dont even care if it rains some, given how terrible the model runs looked just a day or two ago with a deluge of pouring rain, this is a fantastic improvement.

Given the trend-is-your-friend aspect of these things, it wouldnt be a complete shock if it turns out rather snowy and next weekend winds up being fantastic. Fingers crossed while waiting to see the 00z runs come out to see if we get stasis (or improvement) over the 12z/18z runs.
 

mriceyman

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At this point I dont even care if it rains some, given how terrible the model runs looked just a day or two ago with a deluge of pouring rain, this is a fantastic improvement.

Given the trend-is-your-friend aspect of these things, it wouldnt be a complete shock if it turns out rather snowy and next weekend winds up being fantastic. Fingers crossed while waiting to see the 00z runs come out to see if we get stasis (or improvement) over the 12z/18z runs.

The 00z runs definitely werent worse.. keep on chugging and hopefully i get good/great conditions in Next weekend


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tnt1234

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Where do you guys see these 'runs' and how long till they get incorporated into the forecast websites?

I see weather.com got a little worse this morning, with higher temps on Weds. for Stowe.
 

mriceyman

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Runs look marginally better but still have a changeover to ice/rain Wednesday.

Have to hope for some snow on the front/back end of this thing but so far not looking good.

Alot can and will change in a 5 days.. its been trending better since the awful runs tuesday


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mriceyman

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Where do you guys see these 'runs' and how long till they get incorporated into the forecast websites?

I see weather.com got a little worse this morning, with higher temps on Weds. for Stowe.

Tropicaltidbits.com
Go to forecast models.. global models go out to 300+ hours (which is fantasy land)
Free models worth looking at are the gfs and cmc(gem)

Weather.coms forecast for next Wednesday will change basically every 12 hours. 6 days out is a long way.
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tnt1234

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Tropicaltidbits.com
Go to forecast models.. global models go out to 300+ hours (which is fantasy land)
Free models worth looking at are the gfs and cmc(gem)

Weather.coms forecast for next Wednesday will change basically every 12 hours. 6 days out is a long way.
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Thanks - wow - cool site.....
 
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