NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!

[Rowsdower]

That was a crazy storm , I bypassed Blue to go to a BC place of mine in Jim Thorpe only to find 12" with no base , killed my skis!
The cut off was crazy I don't think the "Actual" Poconos got more than 3" . I live 20 miles south of Blue and had 32" ,Blue claimed 2' but I doubt it was that much.

That storm was nuts. We had over 2 feet in Bucks Co. North of Blue Mountain the storm totals dropped off quick. Blue had maybe 18 inches on top of bare ground. Killed my board (and my knee) in the woods that day, but it was still fun.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The second best day I had all season was last year - that fluke storm....Feb? I think? ripped across PA - don't even think it snowed in the catskills. My daughter and I struggled through tough driving conditions and had about a foot of fresh at Blue mountain, and the roads were so risky, place wasn't even crowded. Next day was a snow day - two days after the storm. I went to work, and saw the longest lines I've ever seen on the web cams. Place was beyond crowded. One friend of mine drove to blue with his kids, so the ticket line out the door into the parking lot, got back in the car and drive to Jack Frost....

I was there that day too. It was amazing. It was closer to two feet of snow at Blue Mountain, and nobody was there.

My town got 3 feet, but I diligently shoveled every few hours to ensure I could make it out and to the mountain. I passed "ghost vehicles" on I78, people had just abandoned their vehicles and walked away, and their cars/trucks got snowed in by the plows. It was weird seeing 18-wheelers basically surrounded by 4 feet of snow from the plows. My best day ever of skiing in the Poconos in my life. And yes, I saw the webcams the next day too, I cant imagine it was any fun, the lines must have been completely insane.

 

[tnt1234]

That was a crazy storm , I bypassed Blue to go to a BC place of mine in Jim Thorpe only to find 12" with no base , killed my skis!
The cut off was crazy I don't think the "Actual" Poconos got more than 3" . I live 20 miles south of Blue and had 32" ,Blue claimed 2' but I doubt it was that much.

yeah, that's right....my friends who left blue the next day to go to JF were like "yeah, not much snow...."

 

[tnt1234]

I was there that day too. It was amazing. It was closer to two feet of snow at Blue Mountain, and nobody was there.

My town got 3 feet, but I diligently shoveled every few hours to ensure I could make it out and to the mountain. I passed "ghost vehicles" on I78, people had just abandoned their vehicles and walked away, and their cars/trucks got snowed in by the plows. It was weird seeing 18-wheelers basically surrounded by 4 feet of snow from the plows. My best day ever of skiing in the Poconos in my life. And yes, I saw the webcams the next day too, I cant imagine it was any fun, the lines must have been completely insane.

Was so psyched they didn't groom everything under...great day.

Yeah, couple of tractor trailer plowed in. Was creepy.

 

[bdfreetuna]

starting to look more like a ski sharpener!

 

[Not Sure]

Was so psyched they didn't groom everything under...great day.

Yeah, couple of tractor trailer plowed in. Was creepy.

Hindsight being 2020 I should have went to Blue....Did'nt even consider Bear Creek as I did'nt think it was steep enough for the amount of snow we got . I knew I would'nt be able to get my driveway cleared soon enough as I share a 400' driveway with three other people so I did the whole thing 2 times during the storm with a 5hp snowblower 7hrs later it was open and I was amazed the main road was cleared.

Someone beat me to my BC spot and there was a single set of tracks pointing almost sraight down ? The guy must have had the worst skis in the world as the slope is fairly steep and he basically straight lined the whole thing ? After 10' I had to turn and hit rocks every other turn !!@#$%^

 

[NYDB]

February 7th and 8th

 

[tnt1234]

February 7th and 8th

View attachment 21722

crap.

 

[NYDB]

crap.

to elaborate, I don't think that much base will be lost (if any), but after the rain, the hard refreeze thurs-fri will fuck up the natural which was having a good run.

 

[tnt1234]

to elaborate, I don't think that much base will be lost (if any), but after the rain, the hard refreeze thurs-fri will fuck up the natural which was having a good run.

Seems likely we're cancelling next weekend. Totally moving in the wrong direction here.....Oh well.

Looks killer up there right now...

 

[tnt1234]

You guys think there is any chance for a late save on this?

 

[Glenn]

NWS is hedging a bit and talking about potential watches/warnings for areas north of Albany. So it's a bit of a difficult prediction at this point. Let's hope it trends colder. I'll take sleet over plain rain.

 

[bdfreetuna]

NWS Burlington

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 249 PM EST Saturday...Biggest weather maker in the 7-day
forecast period then affects the forecast area from Tuesday into
Wednesday with widespread precipitation expected. Examination
of medium-range guidance supports a broadly consistent forecast
showing robust energy tracking from the central plains into the
lower Great Lakes, St. Lawrence/Ottawa Valleys and northeastward
during this time frame. Given this agreement our latest
forecast will continue to offer steady light to moderate snows
arriving from southwest to northeast during the day on Tuesday
as strong warm front lifts into the area. By later in the
afternoon and nighttime hours a very pronounced warm nose aloft
will surge northward through the entire forecast area with a
sharp transition to sleet/frza and eventually plain rain. Kept
close to prior forecast using a top-down methodology to govern
p-type timing/amounts. For an early estimate based off storm
track and model-averaged QPF we`re most likely looking at an
advisory- level event with this system with snow/ice amounts
noticeable but not excessive. Concerns also remain for a
potential strong backside sting jet to affect portions of
northern NY and far northwestern VT (esp. SLV) by Wednesday
afternoon/early evening as the primary surface low departs.
Factors favorable for development include a deepening sub-985 mb
sfc low swinging through the SLV and evidence of a strong
isallobaric pressure couplet boring southwest to northeast up
the valley. For now have offered wind gusts into the 40- 50 mph
range in favored locales as a first estimate, though as this
feature enters the domain of higher-res mesoscale output we`ll
be able to fine tune the details. As mentioned yesterday
temperatures will be all over the place with readings rising
throughout Tuesday into Tuesday night under strengthening
southerly flow. By Wednesday afternoon/evening the associated
strong cold front will sweep through beginning a period of
sharply falling readings as steadier precipitation transitions
back to light snows or snow showers.

Quieter weather then returns by Thursday into Friday as temperatures
settle back close to seasonable February norms. By next weekend
energy streaking east from the northern plains and Great Lakes
states may spread increasing clouds and a renewed threat of rain or
snow showers as temperatures moderate.

 

[tnt1234]

balls.

 

[ALLSKIING]

Wait and see at this point.

Sent from my LG-H901 using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[mriceyman]

Gfs now has a southern storm for thursday going thru nj and semi up the coast. That trends north at all and ski country could have a 6" basebuilder followed by pow on top


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

 

[Gustavo Woltmann]

I've been waiting for this skiing trip all my life. Just some more snow please!!

 

[NYDB]

basebuilder with the thaw and refreeze for so vt. could be worse. Looks like 80-90% precip falls frozen. tues looks like good day if the snow starts early enough. Wed will be soft.

 

[ss20]

basebuilder with the thaw and refreeze for so vt. could be worse. Looks like 80-90% precip falls frozen. tues looks like good day if the snow starts early enough. Wed will be soft.

I'll get out there on Tuesday. Wednesday will be wet in the morning, but there may be a few hours of dry before the snow turns boilerplate in the afternoon.

 

[tnt1234]

Looking pretty doomed, no?

We're on the verge of canceling. Was thinking about Tremblant, but even they show a thaw now. Only way to make something decent work looks like Massif, and that's just to far.